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Double · No. 84 · 13 OCTWon

Arsenal vs Lille + Galatasaray vs Barcelona

  1. 01Arsenal vs LilleArsenal win1.21 · Won
  2. 02Galatasaray vs BarcelonaBarcelona win1.25 · Won
Total odds
1.51
Stake
2.00 units
P&L
+1.02 units
Our estimate
53–60%
Published 13 OCT 19:06
Odds: average of 35 popular bookmakers, 13 OCT 19:0818+Play responsibly
Why this betArsenal at home to a Lille side without Ethan Mbappé, and Barcelona, ten wins in a row, in Istanbul. We published it after Barcelona's official line-up; both legs need only a win.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 13 OCT · 20:00 UK

Arsenal vs Lille

Arsenal win1.21Won
Why this pickArsenal have won eight of their last ten and take 60% of the shots on target in their games; Lille are without Ethan Mbappé, banned for three Champions League games. All three previews we read expect a tight Arsenal win, so we take the straight win, most likely 2:0.
Predicted score · alt 1:1
2:0
Our estimate · Arsenal win
75–79%

Form · Arsenal 12 from 15. Lille 9 from 15.

Arsenal12 pts
  • Winvs Leeds United2:1
  • Lossvs Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
  • Winvs Ipswich Town4:2
  • Winvs Sunderland2:0
  • Winvs Napoli1:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.20
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Lille9 pts
  • Winvs Le Havre1:0
  • Lossvs Nice1:2
  • Winvs Troyes2:0
  • Lossvs Real Betis2:3
  • Winvs Toulouse1:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%

Lineups · Expected

  • Arsenal
  • OutWilliam SalibaBack injury
  • OutChristos TzolisHamstring injury
  • DoubtPiero HincapiéAnkle injury, sources differ
  • Lille
  • OutEthan MbappéSuspended
  • OutHamza IgamaneCruciate ligament injury
  • DoubtThiago SantosKnee injury
  • DoubtRomain PerraudKnock

What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3

Our positionWe agree on the winner and on a tight game, so we take the straight win with no handicap.

Scenario & score

Arsenal on the ball, Lille without their most dangerous forward. Arsenal create 1.96 expected goals a game in the Premier League and concede 1.11; Lille, without Ethan Mbappé and probably Thiago Santos, should sit deep and wait for transitions. 2:0 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: Lille score from a set piece or a break against a rebuilt Arsenal back line. Any Arsenal win settles our pick, 1:0 included.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Saliba is out and Hincapié is a doubt, so Arsenal's back line is rebuilt.
  2. 02Arsenal's league points are 3.0 above their expected points: the table flatters their play a little.
  3. 03Arsenal lost 0:3 at Brighton two games ago.
  4. 04Lille kept clean sheets in five of their six away games, according to Scores24.
Key factArsenal have won four of their last five, 2:1 against Leeds at the weekend, but lost 0:3 at Brighton; over ten games they are 8-1-1 with 19 goals for and 8 against, and take 60% of the shots on target in their games. Lille are second in Ligue 1 and beat Le Havre 1:0 on Saturday, but have lost their last eight away games against English clubs (Sports Mole). Both teams had three days of rest.
Full match analysis
Leg 2 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 13 OCT · 20:00 UK

Galatasaray vs Barcelona

Barcelona win1.25Won
Why this pickBarcelona have won their last ten games, 41:9, and create 4.04 expected goals a game in LaLiga. Raphinha is out and Galatasaray will probably score, so we take the straight away win, most likely 1:3.
Predicted score · alt 2:2
1:3
Our estimate · Barcelona win
71–76%

Form · Galatasaray 9 from 15. Barcelona 15 from 15.

Galatasaray9 pts
  • Winvs Kasımpaşa3:1
  • Lossvs Trabzonspor0:4
  • Winvs Kocaelispor1:0
  • Lossvs Sporting CP1:3
  • Winvs İstanbul Başakşehir3:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Barcelona15 pts
  • Winvs Getafe3:0
  • Winvs Sevilla3:1
  • Winvs Racing Santander7:2
  • Winvs Levante4:2
  • Winvs Feyenoord5:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
4.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.20
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%

Lineups · Expected

  • Galatasaray
  • DoubtWilfried SingoThigh injury
  • Barcelona
  • OutRaphinhaThigh muscle injury
  • OutAndreas ChristensenInjured
  • OutRoony BardghjiInjured
  • DoubtFrenkie de JongKnee injury
  • DoubtPau CubarsíReported suspended, not confirmed
  • DoubtRodriReported suspended, not confirmed

What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3

Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect Galatasaray to score, so we take the straight Barcelona win and no handicap.

Scenario & score

Barcelona keep the ball, Galatasaray wait for the break. Barcelona create 4.04 expected goals a game in LaLiga and concede 0.99; Lamine Yamal and Gabriel Jesus should carry the attack without Raphinha. Galatasaray will look for Osimhen, Sané and Leão on the counter and from set pieces. 1:3 is our main score. 2:2 is the alternative: RAMS Park pushes Galatasaray on and a Barcelona side without Raphinha is less sharp. Any Barcelona win settles the pick.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01RAMS Park is one of the loudest grounds in Europe, and Galatasaray were strong at home in the Champions League last season (Sports Mole).
  2. 02Raphinha is out, De Jong is not confirmed, and reports differ on Cubarsí and Rodri.
  3. 03Galatasaray take 70% of the shots on target over their last ten games: they create chances.
Key factBarcelona have won their last ten games with 41 goals for and 9 against, including 5:1 against Feyenoord on matchday 1 and 3:0 against Getafe on Saturday. Galatasaray beat Kasımpaşa 3:1 last time out but lost 0:4 at Trabzonspor and 1:3 at Sporting in Lisbon; they take 70% of the shots on target over ten games and have 16 points from seven Süper Lig rounds.
Full match analysis