Flick benched Rodri for the Clásico. Barcelona conceded twice in five minutes in Paris
Our take Rodri was not what Barcelona missed in Paris
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 · Istanbul
GalatasarayvsBarcelona Galatasaray vs FC Barcelona · prediction
Score
1:4
Date
13 OCT
City
Istanbul
Status
Full time
GAL1:4BARFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Galatasaray vs Barcelona?
Our Galatasaray vs Barcelona prediction is a Barcelona win, most likely 1:3. Hansi Flick's Barcelona have won their last ten games, 41:9, and beat Feyenoord 5:1 on matchday 1; Okan Buruk's Galatasaray lost 1:3 at Sporting on matchday 1 and 0:4 at Trabzonspor two weeks ago. Barcelona come without Raphinha, and they are a leg of our double with Arsenal tonight.
- Predicted score · alt 2:2
- 1:3
- Our estimate
- 71–76%
- Market
- Barcelona win
- Our bet
- Double No. 84 · total odds 1.51
- Leg odds
- 1.25
Galatasaray vs Barcelona at a glance
| Match | Galatasaray vs FC Barcelona |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 13 OCT · 20:00 UK · 22:00 Istanbul |
| Venue | RAMS Park, Istanbul |
| Our pick | Barcelona win · 1.25 · Double No. 84 · total odds 1.51 |
| Our estimate | 71–76% |
| Predicted score | 1:3 |
| Main reason | We expect Barcelona to win in Istanbul too. |
No. 04 · Form
Galatasaray vs Barcelona: recent form
Galatasaray 9 from 15. Barcelona 15 from 15.
Galatasaray9 pts
- Winvs Kasımpaşa3:1
- Lossvs Trabzonspor0:4
- Winvs Kocaelispor1:0
- Lossvs Sporting CP1:3
- Winvs İstanbul Başakşehir3:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Barcelona15 pts
- Winvs Getafe3:0
- Winvs Sevilla3:1
- Winvs Racing Santander7:2
- Winvs Levante4:2
- Winvs Feyenoord5:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 4.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Key factBarcelona have won their last ten games with 41 goals for and 9 against, including 5:1 against Feyenoord on matchday 1 and 3:0 against Getafe on Saturday. Galatasaray beat Kasımpaşa 3:1 last time out but lost 0:4 at Trabzonspor and 1:3 at Sporting in Lisbon; they take 70% of the shots on target over ten games and have 16 points from seven Süper Lig rounds.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Galatasaray vs Barcelona team news
Barcelona without Raphinha; reports differ on Cubarsí and Rodri.
Galatasaray
- DoubtWilfried SingoThigh injury
Barcelona
- OutRaphinhaThigh muscle injury
- OutAndreas ChristensenInjured
- OutRoony BardghjiInjured
- DoubtFrenkie de JongKnee injury
- DoubtPau CubarsíReported suspended, not confirmed
- DoubtRodriReported suspended, not confirmed
TacticsHansi Flick said on 9 October that Raphinha (thigh) would miss both Getafe and the trip to Istanbul; Andreas Christensen and Roony Bardghji are also out, and Frenkie de Jong (knee) is not confirmed. SportsGambler reports bans for Pau Cubarsí and Rodri, yet puts both in its line-up; Sports Mole has both starting. We found no official word, so we treat them as doubts until the line-up is out. Okan Buruk's Galatasaray have Victor Osimhen back from a groin injury, and Wilfried Singo (thigh) is a doubt.
In the news
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Our take The derby is Kartal's real vote of confidence
Galatasaray's seven attackers: 4 goals in 10 games, Sané and Leão still on 0
Our take Galatasaray's goals still run through Osimhen
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Galatasaray vs Barcelona?
All three previews we read expect a Barcelona win, each with a Galatasaray goal.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Barcelona 3:1 | Same side |
| Football Whispers | Barcelona 3:1, both teams to score | Same side |
| SportsGambler | Barcelona 2:1 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect Galatasaray to score, so we take the straight Barcelona win and no handicap.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Galatasaray vs Barcelona predicted score
Barcelona keep the ball, Galatasaray wait for the break.
Barcelona create 4.04 expected goals a game in LaLiga and concede 0.99; Lamine Yamal and Gabriel Jesus should carry the attack without Raphinha. Galatasaray will look for Osimhen, Sané and Leão on the counter and from set pieces. 1:3 is our main score. 2:2 is the alternative: RAMS Park pushes Galatasaray on and a Barcelona side without Raphinha is less sharp. Any Barcelona win settles the pick.
- Predicted score
- 1:3
- Alternative
- 2:2
Your score
GAL
BAR
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Galatasaray vs Barcelona pick: Barcelona win
Barcelona win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We expect Barcelona to win in Istanbul too. They have won ten in a row, create four expected goals a game in LaLiga and concede under one. Galatasaray will probably score, but they lost 0:4 at Trabzonspor and 1:3 in Lisbon, and against this much pressure they should break first. We see 1:3.
Our probability71–76%
Our pickBarcelona win
Leg odds1.25
Main scenario1:3
- Our scenario
- 1:3alternative 2:2
What would change our mind Official confirmation that both Cubarsí and Rodri are suspended: two first-choice players missing that the prices may not reflect, and we would drop the pick.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 9.00 | 11.1% |
| Draw | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| Barcelona win | 1.25 | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.75 | 36.4% |
Odds snapshot 13 OCT 21:08 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- RAMS Park is one of the loudest grounds in Europe, and Galatasaray were strong at home in the Champions League last season (Sports Mole).
- Raphinha is out, De Jong is not confirmed, and reports differ on Cubarsí and Rodri.
- Galatasaray take 70% of the shots on target over their last ten games: they create chances.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Barcelona win is one leg of our double No. 84. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.51, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 84 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Barcelona win at 1.25
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:3Bet at 1.25
- Happened
- 1:4Barcelona win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.