Double · No. 87 · 14 OCTLost
LASK vs Liverpool + Feyenoord vs Como
- 01LASK vs LiverpoolLiverpool win1.35 · Won
- 02Feyenoord vs ComoComo or draw1.32 · Lost
- Total odds
- 1.78
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- -2.00 units
- Our estimate
- 49–55%
Published 14 OCT 06:35
Odds: average of 7 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 06:3118+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 7 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 06:3118+Play responsibly
Why this betTwo away sides at 17:45 UK: Liverpool to win at LASK and Como not to lose in Rotterdam. Liverpool face a side without a win in four; Como, with 2.23 expected goals a game, are covered by the draw too.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 14 OCT · 17:45 UK
LASK vs Liverpool
Liverpool win1.35Won
Why this pickLASK have not won in four games, including a 0:1 defeat at AEK in matchday one, and have never beaten an English club. Liverpool arrive without Ekitike, with Isak and Gakpo doubtful, but the line still gives them 73%, Opta 71%, and all three previews we read pick an away win (1:3, 0:1, 0:1). We expect 0:1 or 1:2, so we take the straight win, no handicap.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 0:1
- Our estimate · Liverpool win
- 70–74%
Form · LASK 4 from 15. Liverpool 10 from 15.
LASK4 pts
- Lossvs Rapid Wien0:2
- Drawvs Hartberg3:3
- Lossvs Sturm Graz1:2
- Lossvs AEK Athens0:1
- Winvs Wolfsberger AC3:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Liverpool10 pts
- Lossvs Manchester City0:3
- Winvs Bournemouth1:0
- Winvs Tottenham Hotspur3:1
- Drawvs Fulham0:0
- Winvs Atlético Madrid2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- LASK
- OutRamiz HarakateKnee injury
- OutGeorge BelloMuscle injury
- DoubtMoses UsorShoulder injury
- Liverpool
- OutHugo EkitikeAchilles injury
- OutConor BradleyKnee injury
- OutGiovanni LeoniCruciate ligament injury
- OutFederico ChiesaNot in the Champions League squad
- OutWataru EndoNot in the Champions League squad
- DoubtAlexander IsakThigh injury
- DoubtCody GakpoAnkle injury
- DoubtDominik SzoboszlaiHamstring injury
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionWe agree on the winner. Sports Mole sees 3:1 but warns that the injuries make a big win unlikely, and SportsGambler expects one goal in it, so we take the straight win with no handicap.
Scenario & score
Liverpool on the ball, LASK deep in a back five. LASK should sit low in a 3-5-2 and wait for Liverpool to run out of ideas. Without Ekitike and probably Isak and Gakpo, Liverpool have fewer ways to score, which is why 0:1 is our main score and not a rout. 1:1 is the risk: LASK, who over their last ten games put 7.1 shots a game on target against 3.0 conceded (Austrian games only), score first, and Liverpool have nobody fit up front to answer. Any Liverpool win settles our pick, 0:1 included.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Liverpool's attack is depleted: Ekitike is out, Isak and Gakpo are doubts and Szoboszlai is unlikely to start.
- 02Liverpool lost 0:3 at home to Manchester City on Sunday and are 4-4-2 over ten games; their league expected goals (1.50 for, 1.42 against) show only a small edge in play.
- 03Both teams play again in the league in three days, Liverpool at Brentford.
- 04Gravenberch's availability after his red card against City is not officially confirmed.
Key factLASK lost 0:2 at home to Rapid Wien on Sunday, drew 3:3 at Hartberg and lost 1:2 at Sturm Graz: four games without a win. Over ten games they are 5-1-4 with 21 goals for and 14 against. Liverpool lost 0:3 at home to Manchester City on Sunday, after a 1:0 win at Bournemouth and 2:1 against Atlético Madrid on matchday 1; over ten games they are 4-4-2, 15:14, with 1.50 expected goals for and 1.42 against per league game (Understat). In the Europa League in 2023-24 Liverpool won 3:1 in Linz and 4:0 at Anfield. Both teams had three days of rest.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 14 OCT · 17:45 UK
Feyenoord vs Como
Como or draw1.32Lost
Why this pickComo create 2.23 expected goals a game this season, beat Leipzig 4:1 and won away at Napoli; Feyenoord lead the Eredivisie but lost 1:5 in Barcelona and are without four defenders. Como are away favourites, and two of the three previews we read expect a draw, so we take Como or the draw: a draw also wins.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 1:1
- Our estimate · Como or draw
- 70–74%
Form · Feyenoord 12 from 15. Como 10 from 15.
Feyenoord12 pts
- Winvs AZ Alkmaar2:0
- Winvs FC Utrecht5:0
- Winvs PEC Zwolle7:0
- Lossvs FC Barcelona1:5
- Winvs NEC Nijmegen3:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Como10 pts
- Drawvs Roma0:0
- Lossvs Frosinone0:2
- Winvs Parma2:1
- Winvs RB Leipzig4:1
- Winvs Genoa4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Lineups · Expected
- Feyenoord
- OutThomas BeelenBroken leg
- OutJordan BosKnee injury
- OutBart NieuwkoopKnee injury
- OutReiss NelsonMuscle injury
- OutGijs SmalAnkle injury
- OutShaqueel van Persie
- DoubtGonçalo BorgesKnock
- DoubtTsuyoshi WatanabeLeg injury
- DoubtJakub ModerKnee injury
- Como
- OutMoise KeanLeg injury, sources differ
- DoubtNicolas KühnReported injured, not confirmed
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 3
Our positionThe prices make Como favourites at 50%, but two of the three previews see a draw. A Como win alone is not certain enough for us, so we take Como or draw: a draw is our result too.
Scenario & score
Two attacking sides, and a Feyenoord back line rebuilt. Both teams want the ball, and Feyenoord play at home with a rebuilt defence after losing Beelen, Bos, Nieuwkoop and Smal. 1:1 is our main score; a 1:2 or 0:2 Como win, with Paz and Baturina making the difference, is the other way we win. 2:1 to Feyenoord is the risk: over their last ten games they put more than seven shots a game on target and score three a game. Como or draw wins with any draw or Como win and loses only if Feyenoord win.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Feyenoord take 70% of the shots on target in their games over the last ten, the best figure among all the teams we studied today, even if it came against Eredivisie opponents.
- 02Como may be without Moise Kean and had three days of rest against Feyenoord's four.
- 03Como make their Champions League away debut at De Kuip.
- 04SportsGambler's main pick is Feyenoord or draw, against ours.
Key factFeyenoord beat AZ 2:0 on Saturday after 5:0 against Utrecht and 7:0 at PEC Zwolle; over ten games they are 7-2-1, 30:12, with five clean sheets, and they put 7.4 shots a game on target against 3.2 conceded. Como drew 0:0 with Roma on Sunday and lost 0:2 at Frosinone before that; over ten games they are also 7-2-1, 19:8, and in Serie A they create 2.23 expected goals a game and concede 1.50 (Understat). Como have three points in the group stage table, Feyenoord none.
Full match analysis