Feyenoord's unbeaten leaders took their row to the dressing room. PSV are next
Our take The row is noise. Eight goals in three games is not
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 · Rotterdam
FeyenoordvsComo prediction
Score
3:2
Date
14 OCT
City
Rotterdam
Status
Full time
FEY3:2COMFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Feyenoord vs Como?
Our Feyenoord vs Como prediction is that Como do not lose: draw or Como win, most likely 1:1. Cesc Fàbregas's Como, Champions League debutants, beat RB Leipzig 4:1 on matchday 1 and won 2:1 at Napoli this season; Giovanni van Bronckhorst's Feyenoord lead the Eredivisie but lost 1:5 at Barcelona and are missing four defenders. Como or draw is a leg of our double with Liverpool tonight.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 1:1
- Our estimate
- 70–74%
- Market
- Como or draw
- Our bet
- Double No. 87 · total odds 1.78
- Leg odds
- 1.32
Feyenoord vs Como at a glance
| Match | Feyenoord vs Como |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 14 OCT · 17:45 UK · 18:45 Rotterdam |
| Venue | De Kuip, Rotterdam |
| Our pick | Como or draw · 1.32 · Double No. 87 · total odds 1.78 |
| Our estimate | 70–74% |
| Predicted score | 1:1 |
| Main reason | We expect Como not to lose in Rotterdam. |
No. 04 · Form
Feyenoord vs Como: recent form
Feyenoord 12 from 15. Como 10 from 15.
Feyenoord12 pts
- Winvs AZ Alkmaar2:0
- Winvs FC Utrecht5:0
- Winvs PEC Zwolle7:0
- Lossvs FC Barcelona1:5
- Winvs NEC Nijmegen3:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Como10 pts
- Drawvs Roma0:0
- Lossvs Frosinone0:2
- Winvs Parma2:1
- Winvs RB Leipzig4:1
- Winvs Genoa4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factFeyenoord beat AZ 2:0 on Saturday after 5:0 against Utrecht and 7:0 at PEC Zwolle; over ten games they are 7-2-1, 30:12, with five clean sheets, and they put 7.4 shots a game on target against 3.2 conceded. Como drew 0:0 with Roma on Sunday and lost 0:2 at Frosinone before that; over ten games they are also 7-2-1, 19:8, and in Serie A they create 2.23 expected goals a game and concede 1.50 (Understat). Como have three points in the group stage table, Feyenoord none.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Feyenoord vs Como team news
Feyenoord without Beelen, Bos, Nieuwkoop and Smal; reports differ on Como's absentees.
Feyenoord
- OutThomas BeelenBroken leg
- OutJordan BosKnee injury
- OutBart NieuwkoopKnee injury
- OutReiss NelsonMuscle injury
- OutGijs SmalAnkle injury
- OutShaqueel van Persie
- DoubtGonçalo BorgesKnock
- DoubtTsuyoshi WatanabeLeg injury
- DoubtJakub ModerKnee injury
Como
- OutMoise KeanLeg injury, sources differ
- DoubtNicolas KühnReported injured, not confirmed
TacticsThomas Beelen (broken leg) is out for Feyenoord in both Sports Mole and SportsGambler; Sports Mole also rules out Jordan Bos and Bart Nieuwkoop (knee), Gijs Smal (ankle), Reiss Nelson (muscle) and Shaqueel van Persie, with Gonçalo Borges, Tsuyoshi Watanabe and Jakub Moder doubts. For Como, Sports Mole has Moise Kean out with a leg injury from the international break, while SportsGambler does not mention him and lists Nicolas Kühn (thigh) instead. Both previews predict the same Como side, with Nico Paz and Martin Baturina behind Anastasios Douvikas. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Fabregas says Italy played Kean injured for 90 minutes. Roma have the bigger problem
Our take Roma lose more than Como
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Feyenoord vs Como?
Three of the four sources we read point to a draw or a Como win; one backs Feyenoord not to lose.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Opta Analyst | Como 48.2% | Same side |
| Sports Mole | 2:2 | Same side |
| SportsGambler | 1:1, main pick Feyenoord or draw | Same side |
Our positionThe prices make Como favourites at 50%, but two of the three previews see a draw. A Como win alone is not certain enough for us, so we take Como or draw: a draw is our result too.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Feyenoord vs Como predicted score
Two attacking sides, and a Feyenoord back line rebuilt.
Both teams want the ball, and Feyenoord play at home with a rebuilt defence after losing Beelen, Bos, Nieuwkoop and Smal. 1:1 is our main score; a 1:2 or 0:2 Como win, with Paz and Baturina making the difference, is the other way we win. 2:1 to Feyenoord is the risk: over their last ten games they put more than seven shots a game on target and score three a game. Como or draw wins with any draw or Como win and loses only if Feyenoord win.
- Predicted score
- 1:1
- Alternative
- 2:1
Your score
FEY
COM
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Feyenoord vs Como pick: Como or draw
Como or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We expect Como not to lose in Rotterdam. Fàbregas's side create 2.23 expected goals a game, beat Leipzig 4:1 and won at Napoli, while Feyenoord come in without four defenders and conceded five in their last Champions League game. A Como win is not clear-cut, and two of three previews see a draw, so we take draw or Como: the draw is our result too.
Our probability70–74%
Our pickComo or draw
Leg odds1.32
Main scenario1:1
- Our scenario
- 1:1alternative 2:1
What would change our mind An official Como line-up without Nico Paz or Martin Baturina: then we drop the leg.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 3.52 | 28.4% |
| Draw | 4.07 | 24.6% |
| Como win | 1.89 | 52.9% |
| Como or draw | 1.32 | 75.8% |
Odds snapshot 14 OCT 07:31 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Feyenoord take 70% of the shots on target in their games over the last ten, the best figure among all the teams we studied today, even if it came against Eredivisie opponents.
- Como may be without Moise Kean and had three days of rest against Feyenoord's four.
- Como make their Champions League away debut at De Kuip.
- SportsGambler's main pick is Feyenoord or draw, against ours.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Como or draw is one leg of our double No. 87. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.78, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 87 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Como or draw at 1.32
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:1Bet at 1.32
- Happened
- 3:2Feyenoord win
Lost
Read next
- The betTonight's double: Liverpool and Como
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.