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Double · No. 88 · 14 OCTWon

LASK vs Liverpool + Slovan vs Stuttgart

  1. 01LASK vs LiverpoolLiverpool win1.35 · Won
  2. 02Slovan vs StuttgartStuttgart win1.28 · Won
Total odds
1.73
Stake
2.00 units
P&L
+1.46 units
Our estimate
48–54%
Published 14 OCT 06:35
Odds: average of 34 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 06:3118+Play responsibly
Why this betTwo away favourites in the Champions League: Liverpool at LASK, who have not won in four, and Stuttgart in Bratislava, where Slovan lost 1:6 to PSG on matchday one. Both legs need only a win.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 14 OCT · 17:45 UK

LASK vs Liverpool

Liverpool win1.35Won
Why this pickLASK have not won in four games, including a 0:1 defeat at AEK in matchday one, and have never beaten an English club. Liverpool arrive without Ekitike, with Isak and Gakpo doubtful, but the line still gives them 73%, Opta 71%, and all three previews we read pick an away win (1:3, 0:1, 0:1). We expect 0:1 or 1:2, so we take the straight win, no handicap.
Predicted score · alt 1:1
0:1
Our estimate · Liverpool win
70–74%

Form · LASK 4 from 15. Liverpool 10 from 15.

LASK4 pts
  • Lossvs Rapid Wien0:2
  • Drawvs Hartberg3:3
  • Lossvs Sturm Graz1:2
  • Lossvs AEK Athens0:1
  • Winvs Wolfsberger AC3:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Liverpool10 pts
  • Lossvs Manchester City0:3
  • Winvs Bournemouth1:0
  • Winvs Tottenham Hotspur3:1
  • Drawvs Fulham0:0
  • Winvs Atlético Madrid2:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%

Lineups · Expected

  • LASK
  • OutRamiz HarakateKnee injury
  • OutGeorge BelloMuscle injury
  • DoubtMoses UsorShoulder injury
  • Liverpool
  • OutHugo EkitikeAchilles injury
  • OutConor BradleyKnee injury
  • OutGiovanni LeoniCruciate ligament injury
  • OutFederico ChiesaNot in the Champions League squad
  • OutWataru EndoNot in the Champions League squad
  • DoubtAlexander IsakThigh injury
  • DoubtCody GakpoAnkle injury
  • DoubtDominik SzoboszlaiHamstring injury

What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3

Our positionWe agree on the winner. Sports Mole sees 3:1 but warns that the injuries make a big win unlikely, and SportsGambler expects one goal in it, so we take the straight win with no handicap.

Scenario & score

Liverpool on the ball, LASK deep in a back five. LASK should sit low in a 3-5-2 and wait for Liverpool to run out of ideas. Without Ekitike and probably Isak and Gakpo, Liverpool have fewer ways to score, which is why 0:1 is our main score and not a rout. 1:1 is the risk: LASK, who over their last ten games put 7.1 shots a game on target against 3.0 conceded (Austrian games only), score first, and Liverpool have nobody fit up front to answer. Any Liverpool win settles our pick, 0:1 included.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Liverpool's attack is depleted: Ekitike is out, Isak and Gakpo are doubts and Szoboszlai is unlikely to start.
  2. 02Liverpool lost 0:3 at home to Manchester City on Sunday and are 4-4-2 over ten games; their league expected goals (1.50 for, 1.42 against) show only a small edge in play.
  3. 03Both teams play again in the league in three days, Liverpool at Brentford.
  4. 04Gravenberch's availability after his red card against City is not officially confirmed.
Key factLASK lost 0:2 at home to Rapid Wien on Sunday, drew 3:3 at Hartberg and lost 1:2 at Sturm Graz: four games without a win. Over ten games they are 5-1-4 with 21 goals for and 14 against. Liverpool lost 0:3 at home to Manchester City on Sunday, after a 1:0 win at Bournemouth and 2:1 against Atlético Madrid on matchday 1; over ten games they are 4-4-2, 15:14, with 1.50 expected goals for and 1.42 against per league game (Understat). In the Europa League in 2023-24 Liverpool won 3:1 in Linz and 4:0 at Anfield. Both teams had three days of rest.
Full match analysis
Leg 2 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 14 OCT · 20:00 UK

Slovan vs Stuttgart

Stuttgart win1.28Won
Why this pickSlovan lost 1:6 to PSG in matchday one and have dropped home league games to mid-table sides; across six European games they faced more shots on target than they had (6.2 against 4.5). Stuttgart already won 3:1 in Bratislava. The line gives Stuttgart 74% and Opta 69%. Their own numbers are not dominant (51% of shots on target), so we expect a narrow 1:2 and take only the win.
Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:2
Our estimate · Stuttgart win
69–73%

Form · Slovan Bratislava 0 from 0. Stuttgart 9 from 15.

Slovan Bratislava0 pts
    Stuttgart9 pts
    • Winvs SC Paderborn2:0
    • Lossvs Borussia Dortmund0:1
    • Lossvs Hoffenheim1:2
    • Winvs Viking FK3:1
    • Winvs 1. FC Köln4:1
    Goals scored per game in these matches.
    2.00
    Goals conceded per game in these matches.
    1.00
    Share of these matches with three or more goals.
    60%
    Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
    60%

    Lineups · Expected

    • Slovan Bratislava
    • No absences reported.
    • Stuttgart
    • OutNikolas NarteyThigh injury
    • OutTiago TomásMuscle injury
    • OutAmeen Al-DakhilKnee injury
    • OutLuca JaquezMuscle injury, sources differ
    • DoubtDan-Axel ZagadouReported out, not confirmed
    • DoubtJeff ChabotMuscle injury, fitness test
    • DoubtMaximilian MittelstädtFoot injury, fitness test

    What others predict · Consensus 2 of 3

    Our positionWe agree that Stuttgart should not lose and that it will be tight. Starting11's 45% for a draw looks high to us against a side that conceded six in Paris, so we take the Stuttgart win with no handicap.

    Scenario & score

    Stuttgart keep the ball, Slovan look for set pieces and the break. Stuttgart should control the ball through Deniz Undav and Ermedin Demirović, while Slovan wait for set pieces and Suleiman Camara on the counter. 1:2 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: a Stuttgart defence that concedes 2.82 expected goals a game in the Bundesliga lets Slovan in, and Stuttgart fail to push on. Any Stuttgart win settles our pick, a one-goal win included.

    Arguing against ourselves

    1. 01Stuttgart do not dominate games: over ten matches they put 6.0 shots a game on target and face 5.7, and they concede 2.82 expected goals per league game.
    2. 02Opta gives Stuttgart 68.8%, five points below the prices, and Starting11 sees a 45% chance of a draw.
    3. 03We know little about Slovan: their team news rests on one source and their league form on one list.
    4. 04Chabot and Mittelstädt both need fitness tests, and Stuttgart play at Hamburg in three days.
    Key factSlovan are fourth in the Slovak league, six points off the top, after defeats at home to Zemplín Michalovce (1:2) and away at DAC (0:2), and in Europe they put 4.5 shots a game on target while facing 6.2 (six games with data). Stuttgart are 11th in the Bundesliga with six points from five games; they won 2:0 at Paderborn on Saturday but lost 0:1 to Dortmund and 1:5 at Bayern. Over ten games Stuttgart are 5-1-4, 20:16, with 2.14 expected goals for and 2.82 against per league game (Understat). Stuttgart are unbeaten in seven games against Slovak clubs (Sports Mole).
    Full match analysis