Demirovic is "still boiling" after Hamburg. Stuttgart: 6 from 6 in Europe, 13th in Germany
Our take Stuttgart need Demirovic's finishing, not his anger
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 · Bratislava
Slovan BratislavavsStuttgart ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart · prediction
Score
0:3
Date
14 OCT
City
Bratislava
Status
Full time
SLO0:3STUFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart?
Our Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart prediction is a Stuttgart win, most likely 1:2. Slovan lost 1:6 at Paris Saint-Germain on matchday 1 and have lost league games to Michalovce and DAC; Sebastian Hoeness's Stuttgart beat Viking 3:1 in their opener and won 3:1 at Tehelné pole two seasons ago. We expect a close away win rather than a rout. Stuttgart are a leg of our double with Liverpool tonight.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:2
- Our estimate
- 69–73%
- Market
- Stuttgart win
- Our bet
- Double No. 88 · total odds 1.73
- Leg odds
- 1.28
Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart at a glance
| Match | ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 14 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Bratislava |
| Venue | Tehelné pole, Bratislava |
| Our pick | Stuttgart win · 1.28 · Double No. 88 · total odds 1.73 |
| Our estimate | 69–73% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 |
| Main reason | We expect Stuttgart to win in Bratislava. |
No. 04 · Form
Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart: recent form
Slovan Bratislava 0 from 0. Stuttgart 9 from 15.
Slovan Bratislava0 pts
Stuttgart9 pts
- Winvs SC Paderborn2:0
- Lossvs Borussia Dortmund0:1
- Lossvs Hoffenheim1:2
- Winvs Viking FK3:1
- Winvs 1. FC Köln4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factSlovan are fourth in the Slovak league, six points off the top, after defeats at home to Zemplín Michalovce (1:2) and away at DAC (0:2), and in Europe they put 4.5 shots a game on target while facing 6.2 (six games with data). Stuttgart are 11th in the Bundesliga with six points from five games; they won 2:0 at Paderborn on Saturday but lost 0:1 to Dortmund and 1:5 at Bayern. Over ten games Stuttgart are 5-1-4, 20:16, with 2.14 expected goals for and 2.82 against per league game (Understat). Stuttgart are unbeaten in seven games against Slovak clubs (Sports Mole).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart team news
Stuttgart without Nartey, Tiago Tomás and Al-Dakhil; Chabot and Mittelstädt face fitness tests.
Slovan Bratislava
No absences reported.
Stuttgart
- OutNikolas NarteyThigh injury
- OutTiago TomásMuscle injury
- OutAmeen Al-DakhilKnee injury
- OutLuca JaquezMuscle injury, sources differ
- DoubtDan-Axel ZagadouReported out, not confirmed
- DoubtJeff ChabotMuscle injury, fitness test
- DoubtMaximilian MittelstädtFoot injury, fitness test
TacticsNikolas Nartey (thigh), Tiago Tomás (muscle) and Ameen Al-Dakhil (knee) are out for Stuttgart in both Sports Mole and Starting11. Sports Mole also rules out Luca Jaquez, while Starting11 lists him as a doubt and adds Dan-Axel Zagadou. Jeff Chabot and Maximilian Mittelstädt both face late fitness tests, which matters because they cover the left side of the defence. Yaya Touré's Slovan have no reported absences, but that comes from Sports Mole alone and Starting11 does not cover the Slovak league. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart?
Two of the three sources we read back a Stuttgart win, and both expect it to be close.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Stuttgart 2:1 | Same side |
| Opta Analyst | Stuttgart 68.8% | Same side |
| Starting11 | Stuttgart or draw: Stuttgart 45%, draw 45%, Slovan 10% | Other side |
Our positionWe agree that Stuttgart should not lose and that it will be tight. Starting11's 45% for a draw looks high to us against a side that conceded six in Paris, so we take the Stuttgart win with no handicap.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart predicted score
Stuttgart keep the ball, Slovan look for set pieces and the break.
Stuttgart should control the ball through Deniz Undav and Ermedin Demirović, while Slovan wait for set pieces and Suleiman Camara on the counter. 1:2 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: a Stuttgart defence that concedes 2.82 expected goals a game in the Bundesliga lets Slovan in, and Stuttgart fail to push on. Any Stuttgart win settles our pick, a one-goal win included.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
SLO
STU
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart pick: Stuttgart win
Stuttgart win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We expect Stuttgart to win in Bratislava. Slovan conceded six in Paris, have lost league games to mid-table sides and, in their European games with data, faced more shots on target than they took (6.2 against 4.5). Stuttgart already won 3:1 at the same ground in the 2024-25 Champions League. This is not a rout: we see 1:2, so we take the win only, with less confidence than in Liverpool.
Our probability69–73%
Our pickStuttgart win
Leg odds1.28
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 1:2alternative 1:1
What would change our mind If neither Chabot nor Mittelstädt is fit and the price on Stuttgart moves above 1.33, we drop the leg.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Slovan Bratislava win | 9.03 | 11.1% |
| Draw | 5.95 | 16.8% |
| Stuttgart win | 1.28 | 78.1% |
Odds snapshot 14 OCT 07:31 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Stuttgart do not dominate games: over ten matches they put 6.0 shots a game on target and face 5.7, and they concede 2.82 expected goals per league game.
- Opta gives Stuttgart 68.8%, five points below the prices, and Starting11 sees a 45% chance of a draw.
- We know little about Slovan: their team news rests on one source and their league form on one list.
- Chabot and Mittelstädt both need fitness tests, and Stuttgart play at Hamburg in three days.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Stuttgart win is one leg of our double No. 88. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.73, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 88 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Stuttgart win at 1.28
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:2Bet at 1.28
- Happened
- 0:3Stuttgart win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.