Double: Roma v Real Madrid + Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe

Why this betTwo favourites we expect not to lose tonight, covered with the draw. Real Madrid go to a Roma side without first-choice goalkeeper Mile Svilar that has lost its last four Champions League games against them without scoring. Aston Villa host a Fenerbahçe side they have beaten in all three meetings, but Villa have no fit natural left-back, so we take the double chance in both games rather than two straight wins.

Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 14 OCT · 20:00 UK

Roma vs Real Madrid

Real Madrid or draw1.29Won

Why this pickReal Madrid have won eight of their last ten games and bring Mbappé, Vinícius and Bellingham to Rome, where Pierluigi Gollini replaces the injured Svilar in goal. Roma have lost their last four Champions League meetings with Real without scoring (Opta). Roma are unbeaten in ten under Gasperini and create 2.87 expected goals a game in Serie A, so a Roma goal is likely; that is why we cover the draw. Our score is 1:2, and 1:1 or 2:2 also win the leg.

Predicted score · alt 1:1: 1:2
Our estimate · Real Madrid or draw: 72–76%

Form · Roma 9 from 15. Real Madrid 12 from 15.

Roma9 pts

Drawvs Como0:0
Drawvs Inter Milan2:2
Winvs Torino2:0
Drawvs Fenerbahçe1:1
Winvs Atalanta2:1

: 1.40
: 0.80
: 40%
: 60%

Real Madrid12 pts

Winvs Villarreal1:0
Lossvs Atlético Madrid1:2
Winvs Elche3:2
Winvs Rayo Vallecano4:1
Winvs Inter Milan2:1

: 2.20
: 1.20
: 80%
: 80%

Lineups · Expected

Roma
OutMile SvilarFoot injury
DoubtBryan CristanteSources differ: knee injury or fit
DoubtKonstantinos KoulierakisDoubtful, one source

Real Madrid
OutÉder MilitãoMuscle injury
OutRodrygoKnee injury
OutFerland MendyThigh injury
OutRaúl AsencioLeg injury

What others predict · Consensus 4 of 5

Our positionSources split on the winner: Opta, Kickoff.co.uk, Sports Mole and Cult of Calcio have Real Madrid, while none of the five CBS experts does. All the scores we read, from Sports Mole and CBS, have both teams scoring, and that is where we stand.

Scenario & score

Mbappé and Vinícius test Gollini; Roma answer through Dybala and Malen. Real Madrid should create chances against a back-up goalkeeper, with Mbappé and Vinícius running at Roma's back three. Roma make almost three expected goals a game in Serie A (2.87), and Real have conceded as many shots on target as they took in their last five games (6.0 each), so a Roma goal through Dybala or Malen is likely. 1:2 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if Gasperini's man-marking stops Real from controlling the game. Real Madrid or a draw wins with 1:2, 1:1, 0:1, 0:2, 2:2 or 0:0 and loses only if Roma win.

Arguing against ourselves

01Roma lost their last four Champions League games against Real Madrid without scoring (Opta Analyst).
02Roma kept six clean sheets in their last ten games, and both teams scored in only four of them.
03Real Madrid concede only 1.04 expected goals a game in LaLiga, and Roma's 14 Serie A goals are about three fewer than their chances were worth.

Key factRoma drew 0:0 at Como on Sunday after 2:2 against Inter, 2:0 at Torino, 1:1 at Fenerbahçe on matchday 1 and 2:1 against Atalanta; they are unbeaten in ten (seven wins, three draws, 22 goals scored, six conceded) with 14 points from six Serie A games. Real Madrid beat Villarreal 1:0 on Saturday, lost 1:2 at Atlético and won 3:2 at Elche, 4:1 against Rayo Vallecano and 2:1 against Inter. Over the last ten games both teams scored in four of Roma's and seven of Real's; Roma kept six clean sheets, Real two. This is Roma's first home Champions League game since February 2019 (Sports Mole).

Full match analysis

Leg 2 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 14 OCT · 20:00 UK

Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe

Aston Villa or draw1.19Won

Why this pickVilla have won all three meetings with Fenerbahçe and play at Villa Park, where the prices make them a 58% favourite. Villa's weak point is the left side: Ruggeri and Maatsen are out, so Van-Bissaka is expected to switch flanks against Greenwood, and Villa have conceded in nine of their last ten. A Villa win or a draw covers the 2:2 that one preview expects; our score is 2:1.

Predicted score · alt 2:2: 2:1
Our estimate · Aston Villa or draw: 75–79%

Form · Aston Villa 10 from 15. Fenerbahçe 8 from 15.

Aston Villa10 pts

Drawvs Brentford2:2
Winvs Tottenham Hotspur3:2
Winvs Coventry City3:1
Lossvs Nottingham Forest1:2
Winvs Club Brugge3:2

: 2.40
: 1.80
: 100%
: 100%

Fenerbahçe8 pts

Winvs Çaykur Rizespor3:0
Winvs Eyüpspor8:0
Drawvs Gaziantep0:0
Drawvs Roma1:1
Lossvs Beşiktaş1:2

: 2.60
: 0.60
: 60%
: 40%

Lineups · Expected

Aston Villa
OutMatteo RuggeriHamstring injury
OutIan MaatsenAnkle injury
OutBrian MadjoNot registered for the Champions League
OutGeorge HemmingsKnee injury
DoubtAmadou OnanaKnee injury, back in training
DoubtModou Keba CisséGroin injury, back in training

Fenerbahçe
DoubtJayden OosterwoldeAchilles injury, sources differ
DoubtMert MüldürKnee injury, sources differ

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 4

Our positionNobody is confident about a clean Villa win, and neither are we. That is why we take the double chance: it covers the Opta and SportsGambler call and the Sports Mole draw at once.

Scenario & score

Villa score at home, Fenerbahçe score too. Villa have conceded in nine of their last ten games and Fenerbahçe have scored in nine of theirs, so a clean sheet for either side would surprise us. With Wan-Bissaka on the wrong flank, Mason Greenwood will have room on the Fenerbahçe right. Villa answer with numbers in the box: three goals in each of their last three away games. 2:1 is our main score. 2:2 is the alternative, and it also wins: our pick is settled by a Villa win or a draw, and loses only if Fenerbahçe win.

Arguing against ourselves

01In the league Villa allow 2.02 expected goals a game and create 1.14: the numbers say they defend badly.
02Fenerbahçe take 62% of the shots on target in their games over the last ten, Villa 47%.
03Villa are missing both senior left-backs and may also be without Onana in midfield.
04One model preview expects a 4:1 Fenerbahçe win.

Key factVilla scored three goals in each of their last three away games (3:2 at Tottenham, 3:1 at Coventry in the cup, 3:2 at Club Brugge), but over ten games they are 4-2-4 with 15 scored and 17 conceded. In the league they create 1.14 expected goals a game and allow 2.02 (Understat). Fenerbahçe are fourth in the Süper Lig and won their last two league games 3:0 and 8:0, yet Sports Mole counts eight Champions League games in a row without a win for them. Both teams had four days of rest.

Full match analysis