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Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 · Rome
RomavsReal Madrid AS Roma vs Real Madrid · prediction
Score
3:4
Date
14 OCT
City
Rome
Status
Full time
ROM3:4RMAFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Roma vs Real Madrid?
Our Roma vs Real Madrid prediction is Real Madrid or a draw, most likely 1:2 to Real Madrid. José Mourinho, who coached Roma from July 2021 to January 2024 (Opta Analyst), returns to the Stadio Olimpico with Mbappé, Vinícius and Bellingham, while Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma are without first-choice goalkeeper Mile Svilar but unbeaten in ten games. The prices give Real Madrid 49%. Real Madrid or a draw is a leg of our double with Aston Villa tonight.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:2
- Our estimate
- 72–76%
- Market
- Real Madrid or draw
- Our bet
- Double No. 91 · total odds 1.54
- Leg odds
- 1.29
Roma vs Real Madrid at a glance
| Match | AS Roma vs Real Madrid |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 14 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Rome |
| Venue | Stadio Olimpico, Rome |
| Our pick | Real Madrid or draw · 1.29 · Double No. 91 · total odds 1.54 |
| Our estimate | 72–76% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 |
| Main reason | We think Real Madrid do not lose in Rome. |
No. 04 · Form
Roma vs Real Madrid: recent form
Roma 9 from 15. Real Madrid 12 from 15.
Roma9 pts
- Drawvs Como0:0
- Drawvs Inter Milan2:2
- Winvs Torino2:0
- Drawvs Fenerbahçe1:1
- Winvs Atalanta2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Real Madrid12 pts
- Winvs Villarreal1:0
- Lossvs Atlético Madrid1:2
- Winvs Elche3:2
- Winvs Rayo Vallecano4:1
- Winvs Inter Milan2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Key factRoma drew 0:0 at Como on Sunday after 2:2 against Inter, 2:0 at Torino, 1:1 at Fenerbahçe on matchday 1 and 2:1 against Atalanta; they are unbeaten in ten (seven wins, three draws, 22 goals scored, six conceded) with 14 points from six Serie A games. Real Madrid beat Villarreal 1:0 on Saturday, lost 1:2 at Atlético and won 3:2 at Elche, 4:1 against Rayo Vallecano and 2:1 against Inter. Over the last ten games both teams scored in four of Roma's and seven of Real's; Roma kept six clean sheets, Real two. This is Roma's first home Champions League game since February 2019 (Sports Mole).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Roma vs Real Madrid team news
Gollini replaces Svilar in Roma's goal; Real without Militão and Rodrygo.
Roma
- OutMile SvilarFoot injury
- DoubtBryan CristanteSources differ: knee injury or fit
- DoubtKonstantinos KoulierakisDoubtful, one source
Real Madrid
- OutÉder MilitãoMuscle injury
- OutRodrygoKnee injury
- OutFerland MendyThigh injury
- OutRaúl AsencioLeg injury
TacticsSvilar is out with a foot injury, so Pierluigi Gollini starts in goal (Sports Mole, Cult of Calcio). Reports differ on Bryan Cristante: Sports Mole has him out with a knee problem, Cult of Calcio says the rest of the squad is fit. Malen was sent off at Como, but that ban applies in Serie A and he is expected to lead the attack, with Dybala and Soulé behind him. Real Madrid are without Éder Militão, Rodrygo, Ferland Mendy and Raúl Asencio; Huijsen is back. Kylian Mbappé is not suspended (the player banned for matchday 2 is his brother Ethan, of Lille) and should play his 100th Champions League game (Opta Analyst), with Valverde, Bernardo, Güler, Bellingham and Vinícius.
In the news
Sevilla demand LaLiga's raw footage after Güler's elbow got no close-up replay
Our take "Nothing hidden" needs the raw footage
Report: Pérez eyes Deschamps if Mourinho fails, and the Clásico is the test
Our take The table will decide this before Pérez does
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 5
Who do others back in Roma vs Real Madrid?
The models favour Real Madrid; most human previews expect goals for both.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Opta Analyst | Real Madrid 47.7% | Same side |
| Kickoff.co.uk | Real Madrid 51%, both teams to score 68% | Same side |
| Sports Mole | 1:2 to Real Madrid | Same side |
| Cult of Calcio | Real Madrid to win | Same side |
| CBS Sports | Five experts: 2:1 and 3:2 to Roma, 1:1, 2:2, 2:2 | Same side |
Our positionSources split on the winner: Opta, Kickoff.co.uk, Sports Mole and Cult of Calcio have Real Madrid, while none of the five CBS experts does. All the scores we read, from Sports Mole and CBS, have both teams scoring, and that is where we stand.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Roma vs Real Madrid predicted score
Mbappé and Vinícius test Gollini; Roma answer through Dybala and Malen.
Real Madrid should create chances against a back-up goalkeeper, with Mbappé and Vinícius running at Roma's back three. Roma make almost three expected goals a game in Serie A (2.87), and Real have conceded as many shots on target as they took in their last five games (6.0 each), so a Roma goal through Dybala or Malen is likely. 1:2 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if Gasperini's man-marking stops Real from controlling the game. Real Madrid or a draw wins with 1:2, 1:1, 0:1, 0:2, 2:2 or 0:0 and loses only if Roma win.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
ROM
RMA
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Roma vs Real Madrid pick: Real Madrid or draw
Real Madrid or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Real Madrid do not lose in Rome. Mourinho has Mbappé, Vinícius and Bellingham, and Roma are without their first-choice goalkeeper. Roma have not scored against Real in their last four Champions League meetings. They can still score here, with almost three expected goals a game in Serie A, so we cover the draw instead of backing a straight Real win. Our score is 1:2, and 1:1 also wins the leg.
Our probability72–76%
Our pickReal Madrid or draw
Leg odds1.29
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 1:2alternative 1:1
What would change our mind A Roma line-up without Dybala and Malen, rested before Saturday's game against Genoa: then 0:1 or 0:2 becomes our main score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Roma win | 3.53 | 28.3% |
| Draw | 3.87 | 25.8% |
| Real Madrid win | 1.92 | 52.1% |
| Roma or draw | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Real Madrid or draw | 1.29 | 77.5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 71.4% |
Odds snapshot 14 OCT 10:14 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Roma might not score.
- Roma lost their last four Champions League games against Real Madrid without scoring (Opta Analyst).
- Roma kept six clean sheets in their last ten games, and both teams scored in only four of them.
- Real Madrid concede only 1.04 expected goals a game in LaLiga, and Roma's 14 Serie A goals are about three fewer than their chances were worth.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Real Madrid or draw is one leg of our double No. 91. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.54, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 91 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
- Prediction updated · now a bet: Real Madrid or draw at 1.29, a leg of our double with Aston Villa (earlier call: both teams to score, analysis only)
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:2Bet at 1.29
- Happened
- 3:4Real Madrid win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.