Kartal hears "resign" chants and promises Fenerbahçe fans: win the derby, make peace
Our take The derby is Kartal's real vote of confidence
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 · Birmingham
Aston VillavsFenerbahçe prediction
Score
6:0
Date
14 OCT
City
Birmingham
Status
Full time
AVL6:0FENFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe prediction is Villa not to lose: a home win or a draw, most likely 2:1. Unai Emery's side beat Club Brugge 3:2 away on matchday 1 and have won all three previous meetings with Fenerbahçe, but they are 15th in the Premier League and without both senior left-backs. Villa avoiding defeat is a leg of our double with Roma vs Real Madrid tonight.
- Predicted score · alt 2:2
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 75–79%
- Market
- Aston Villa or draw
- Our bet
- Double No. 91 · total odds 1.54
- Leg odds
- 1.19
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe at a glance
| Match | Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 14 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 Birmingham |
| Venue | Villa Park, Birmingham |
| Our pick | Aston Villa or draw · 1.19 · Double No. 91 · total odds 1.54 |
| Our estimate | 75–79% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | We expect Villa not to lose at Villa Park, even if we are not sure they win. |
No. 04 · Form
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: recent form
Aston Villa 10 from 15. Fenerbahçe 8 from 15.
Aston Villa10 pts
- Drawvs Brentford2:2
- Winvs Tottenham Hotspur3:2
- Winvs Coventry City3:1
- Lossvs Nottingham Forest1:2
- Winvs Club Brugge3:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 100%
Fenerbahçe8 pts
- Winvs Çaykur Rizespor3:0
- Winvs Eyüpspor8:0
- Drawvs Gaziantep0:0
- Drawvs Roma1:1
- Lossvs Beşiktaş1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factVilla scored three goals in each of their last three away games (3:2 at Tottenham, 3:1 at Coventry in the cup, 3:2 at Club Brugge), but over ten games they are 4-2-4 with 15 scored and 17 conceded. In the league they create 1.14 expected goals a game and allow 2.02 (Understat). Fenerbahçe are fourth in the Süper Lig and won their last two league games 3:0 and 8:0, yet Sports Mole counts eight Champions League games in a row without a win for them. Both teams had four days of rest.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe team news
Villa without Ruggeri and Maatsen at left-back; Fenerbahçe have Guendouzi back.
Aston Villa
- OutMatteo RuggeriHamstring injury
- OutIan MaatsenAnkle injury
- OutBrian MadjoNot registered for the Champions League
- OutGeorge HemmingsKnee injury
- DoubtAmadou OnanaKnee injury, back in training
- DoubtModou Keba CisséGroin injury, back in training
Fenerbahçe
- DoubtJayden OosterwoldeAchilles injury, sources differ
- DoubtMert MüldürKnee injury, sources differ
TacticsEmery confirmed on Tuesday that Matteo Ruggeri tore a hamstring against Brentford and is out for more than a month; Ian Maatsen (ankle) is a week away and Brian Madjo is not registered for the Champions League. Amadou Onana and Modou Keba Cissé are only starting to train with the group, so expect Aaron Wan-Bissaka on the left. Leon Goretzka is back in the squad. İsmail Kartal's Fenerbahçe have Matteo Guendouzi available after his ban; Sports Mole lists Jayden Oosterwolde and Mert Müldür as out, another preview reports no absentees. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Report: Asensio needs knee surgery, and Kartal's 'no problem' now faces a test
Our take A knee would prove Kartal right, and cost him the derby
Report: Kartal at war with four Fenerbahçe stars after the 6-0 at Villa
Our take Tonight's team sheet is the real test
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 4
Who do others back in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
The four previews we read split three ways, and three of the four calls fit Villa not losing.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Opta Analyst | Aston Villa win 55.1% | Same side |
| SportsGambler | Aston Villa 2:0 | Same side |
| Sports Mole | 2:2 | Same side |
| footballpredictions.ai | Fenerbahçe 4:1 | Other side |
Our positionNobody is confident about a clean Villa win, and neither are we. That is why we take the double chance: it covers the Opta and SportsGambler call and the Sports Mole draw at once.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe predicted score
Villa score at home, Fenerbahçe score too.
Villa have conceded in nine of their last ten games and Fenerbahçe have scored in nine of theirs, so a clean sheet for either side would surprise us. With Wan-Bissaka on the wrong flank, Mason Greenwood will have room on the Fenerbahçe right. Villa answer with numbers in the box: three goals in each of their last three away games. 2:1 is our main score. 2:2 is the alternative, and it also wins: our pick is settled by a Villa win or a draw, and loses only if Fenerbahçe win.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 2:2
Your score
AVL
FEN
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe pick: Aston Villa or draw
Aston Villa or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We expect Villa not to lose at Villa Park, even if we are not sure they win. They scored three in each of their last three away games, beat Fenerbahçe in all three previous meetings and play at home, where the line makes them a clear favourite. Fenerbahçe are strong in Turkey but have gone eight Champions League games without a win, according to Sports Mole. A thin Villa squad is why we add the draw rather than back the straight win: 2:1 and 2:2 both settle our pick.
Our probability75–79%
Our pickAston Villa or draw
Leg odds1.19
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 2:2
What would change our mind An official Villa line-up with neither Onana nor Boubacar Kamara in midfield on top of the missing left-backs: then the spine is gone and we drop the leg.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 1.62 | 61.7% |
| Draw | 4.14 | 24.2% |
| Fenerbahçe win | 4.89 | 20.4% |
| Aston Villa or draw | 1.19 | 84% |
Odds snapshot 14 OCT 09:14 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- In the league Villa allow 2.02 expected goals a game and create 1.14: the numbers say they defend badly.
- Fenerbahçe take 62% of the shots on target in their games over the last ten, Villa 47%.
- Villa are missing both senior left-backs and may also be without Onana in midfield.
- One model preview expects a 4:1 Fenerbahçe win.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Aston Villa or draw is one leg of our double No. 91. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.54, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 91 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Aston Villa or draw at 1.19
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:1Bet at 1.19
- Happened
- 6:0Aston Villa win
Won
Read next
- Other legRoma vs Real Madrid prediction
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.