Double · No. 95 · 15 OCTWon
Benfica vs Celtic + Freiburg vs Jablonec
- 01Benfica vs CelticBenfica win1.22 · Won
- 02Freiburg vs JablonecFreiburg win1.22 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.49
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- +0.98 units
- Our estimate
- 56–61%
Published 15 OCT 06:33
Odds: average of 25 popular bookmakers, 15 OCT 06:3518+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 25 popular bookmakers, 15 OCT 06:3518+Play responsibly
Why this betTwo home favourites on Thursday night: Benfica, with nine wins in their last ten, against a Celtic side missing two first-choice defenders in the Europa League, and Bundesliga leaders SC Freiburg against Czech side Jablonec on matchday 1 of the Conference League. Both legs need only a home win; we expect 2:0 in Lisbon and 3:0 in Freiburg.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Europa League · 15 OCT · 20:00 UK
Benfica vs Celtic
Benfica win1.22Won
Why this pickBenfica are 9-0-1 over ten games with 30 goals for and 7 against, and opponents put only 2.1 shots a game on target against them. Celtic lead Scotland but lost three in a row in September, including 1:3 at home to Ferencváros on matchday 1, and come without Carter-Vickers, Johnston and Yang. Benfica's next game is a week away, so no reason to rotate. All three previews we read back Benfica; we expect 2:0 and take the straight win.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 2:0
- Our estimate · Benfica win
- 76–79%
Form · Benfica 12 from 15. Celtic 6 from 15.
Benfica12 pts
- Winvs Vitória de Guimarães2:0
- Lossvs FC Porto1:3
- Winvs AC Milan2:0
- Winvs Gil Vicente3:1
- Winvs Moreirense4:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Celtic6 pts
- Winvs Motherwell2:0
- Lossvs Rangers0:1
- Lossvs Ferencváros1:3
- Lossvs Rangers0:3
- Winvs St Johnstone1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 20%
Lineups · Expected
- Benfica
- OutEnzo BarrenecheaKnee injury
- DoubtJakub KamińskiMuscle injury
- Celtic
- OutCameron Carter-VickersInjury
- OutAlistair JohnstonInjury
- OutYang Hyun-junInjury
- DoubtCallum OsmandAnkle injury
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionWe agree on the winner. Sports Mole sees 2:0 and Khel Now 3:1, and Soccernews also expects a Benfica win. Benfica scored two or more in nine of their last ten games, but Celtic put shots on target even when they lose, so we take the straight win with no handicap.
Scenario & score
Benfica on the ball at the Luz, Celtic trying to hold out. Benfica should have the ball and push Celtic back from the start. Celtic arrive with a back line missing Carter-Vickers and Johnston, and Benfica have won six and drawn one of their seven home games this season (Sports Mole). We expect Benfica to score before half-time and control the second half, which is why 2:0 is our main score. 2:1 is the version where Celtic, who put 7.4 shots a game on target over their last ten, get one back. Any Benfica win settles the leg; a draw or a Celtic win loses it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Benfica lost 1:3 at Porto last month: they can still have a bad night against a strong side.
- 02Celtic put 7.4 shots a game on target over ten games and create chances even in defeat.
- 03The price is short (1.24), so a slip here costs the whole double.
- 04Kamiński's fitness is unclear: one preview has him doubtful, the other out.
Key factBenfica beat Vitória de Guimarães 2:0 on Sunday and are second in the Portuguese league with 19 points from eight games. Over ten games they are 9-0-1 with 30 goals for and 7 against; the only defeat was 1:3 at Porto. In those ten games Benfica put 6.9 shots a game on target and allowed 2.1, which is 77% of all shots on target. Celtic are top in Scotland with 21 points from eight games, but before Sunday's 2:0 at Motherwell they lost three in a row: 0:3 at Rangers in the League Cup, 1:3 at home to Ferencváros and 0:1 at home to Rangers. Over ten games they are 6-0-4, 15:14, a run that includes a 1:5 defeat at LASK in Champions League qualifying. Both teams had four days of rest.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Europe · Conference League · 15 OCT · 20:00 UK
Freiburg vs Jablonec
Freiburg win1.22Won
Why this pickFreiburg top the Bundesliga, unbeaten with 13 points from five games and 14 goals for against 4, with 2.05 expected goals for and 0.88 against per league game (Understat). Jablonec, with 17 points from ten Czech league rounds, defend deep and got past Rangers on penalties. Freiburg visit Leverkusen on Sunday, so some rotation is possible, but all three previews we read pick a home win. We expect 3:0.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 3:0
- Our estimate · Freiburg win
- 76–79%
Form · Freiburg 13 from 15. Jablonec 10 from 15.
Freiburg13 pts
- Winvs Schalke 042:1
- Drawvs Eintracht Frankfurt2:2
- Winvs Borussia Mönchengladbach5:0
- Winvs SC Paderborn 071:0
- Winvs Werder Bremen4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Jablonec10 pts
- Winvs Zbrojovka Brno1:0
- Winvs Dukla Prague1:0
- Drawvs Zlín1:1
- Lossvs Sparta Prague0:2
- Winvs Baník Ostrava3:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 20%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 20%
Lineups · Expected
- Freiburg
- OutFlorent MuslijaCruciate ligament injury
- OutRihito Yamamoto
- Jablonec
- No absences reported.
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionWe agree on the winner. Sports Mole sees 4:1, Football Whispers expects Freiburg to score first, and Scores24 backs Freiburg while warning not to underrate Jablonec. We see 3:0 and take only the win, so a Jablonec goal does not hurt the pick.
Scenario & score
Freiburg on the ball, Jablonec waiting for the counter. Schuster expects Jablonec to defend deep and wait for the counter, the way they got past Rangers. Freiburg had 17.3 shots a game over their last ten and allowed 8.5, so the home side should have most of the ball and most of the chances. 3:0 is our main score; 2:1 is the version where Jablonec score on the break. Even with some rotation before Leverkusen, Freiburg have enough on the bench to win this. Any Freiburg win settles the leg; a draw or a Jablonec win loses it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Freiburg play at Bayer Leverkusen on Sunday, and Schuster may rest part of his starting side.
- 02Jablonec knocked Rangers out: they know how to defend for 90 minutes in Europe.
- 03Our data on Jablonec is thin: ESPN covers only their six qualifying games, so their shot numbers rest on a small sample.
- 04Jablonec's team news comes from one source only.
Key factFreiburg beat Schalke 04 2:1 on Sunday and are 4-1-0 in the league: 5:0 against Borussia Mönchengladbach, 4:1 against Werder Bremen, 1:0 at Paderborn and 2:2 at Eintracht Frankfurt. Over ten games they are 8-1-1 with 30 goals for and 11 against, with 17.3 shots a game against 8.5 and 72% of all shots on target. In the Conference League play-off they beat Motherwell 3:1 away and 4:1 at home. Jablonec won 1:0 at Zbrojovka Brno on Saturday and 1:0 at Dukla Prague in the cup, after a 1:1 with Zlín and a 0:2 defeat at Sparta Prague. In qualifying they beat Varaždin and RFS, then lost 0:1 at Ibrox and won 1:0 at home before beating Rangers on penalties. Freiburg had four days of rest, Jablonec five.
Full match analysis