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Football · Europe · Conference League · League phase, matchday 1 · Freiburg
FreiburgvsJablonec SC Freiburg vs Jablonec · prediction
Score
3:2
Date
15 OCT
City
Freiburg
Status
Full time
SCF3:2JABFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Freiburg vs Jablonec?
Our SC Freiburg vs Jablonec prediction is a Freiburg win, most likely 3:0. Freiburg top the Bundesliga after five rounds, unbeaten with 13 points and 14 goals for against 4, and create 2.05 expected goals a league game while allowing 0.88 (Understat). Jablonec reached the Conference League league phase by knocking out Rangers on penalties and have 17 points from ten rounds of the Czech league. It is matchday 1 at the Europa-Park Stadion, and the home win is one leg of our double tonight, with Benfica.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 3:0
- Our estimate
- 76–79%
- Market
- Freiburg win
- Our bet
- Double No. 95 · total odds 1.49
- Leg odds
- 1.22
Freiburg vs Jablonec at a glance
| Match | SC Freiburg vs Jablonec |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Conference League · League phase, matchday 1 |
| Kick-off | 15 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Freiburg |
| Venue | Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg |
| Our pick | Freiburg win · 1.22 · Double No. 95 · total odds 1.49 |
| Our estimate | 76–79% |
| Predicted score | 3:0 |
| Main reason | Freiburg are one of the best sides in Germany on chance quality right now: 2.05 expected goals for and 0.88 against per league game, and the table has them top. |
No. 04 · Form
Freiburg vs Jablonec: recent form
Freiburg 13 from 15. Jablonec 10 from 15.
Freiburg13 pts
- Winvs Schalke 042:1
- Drawvs Eintracht Frankfurt2:2
- Winvs Borussia Mönchengladbach5:0
- Winvs SC Paderborn 071:0
- Winvs Werder Bremen4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Jablonec10 pts
- Winvs Zbrojovka Brno1:0
- Winvs Dukla Prague1:0
- Drawvs Zlín1:1
- Lossvs Sparta Prague0:2
- Winvs Baník Ostrava3:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 20%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 20%
Key factFreiburg beat Schalke 04 2:1 on Sunday and are 4-1-0 in the league: 5:0 against Borussia Mönchengladbach, 4:1 against Werder Bremen, 1:0 at Paderborn and 2:2 at Eintracht Frankfurt. Over ten games they are 8-1-1 with 30 goals for and 11 against, with 17.3 shots a game against 8.5 and 72% of all shots on target. In the Conference League play-off they beat Motherwell 3:1 away and 4:1 at home. Jablonec won 1:0 at Zbrojovka Brno on Saturday and 1:0 at Dukla Prague in the cup, after a 1:1 with Zlín and a 0:2 defeat at Sparta Prague. In qualifying they beat Varaždin and RFS, then lost 0:1 at Ibrox and won 1:0 at home before beating Rangers on penalties. Freiburg had four days of rest, Jablonec five.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Freiburg vs Jablonec team news
Freiburg without Muslija and Yamamoto; no Jablonec absences reported.
Freiburg
- OutFlorent MuslijaCruciate ligament injury
- OutRihito Yamamoto
Jablonec
No absences reported.
TacticsFlorent Muslija is out with a ruptured cruciate ligament (bundesliga.com, Sports Mole), and Sports Mole also lists midfielder Rihito Yamamoto as out, noting that both would probably have started on the bench. Otherwise Julian Schuster expects a fit squad (bundesliga.com). For Jablonec, Sports Mole reports no injuries or suspensions; we found no second source, so treat their team news as unconfirmed. Freiburg play at Bayer Leverkusen on Sunday, three days later, so Schuster may rest a few starters. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Freiburg vs Jablonec?
All three previews we read expect Freiburg to win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Freiburg 4:1 | Same side |
| Football Whispers | Freiburg to score first | Same side |
| Scores24 | Freiburg win | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner. Sports Mole sees 4:1, Football Whispers expects Freiburg to score first, and Scores24 backs Freiburg while warning not to underrate Jablonec. We see 3:0 and take only the win, so a Jablonec goal does not hurt the pick.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Freiburg vs Jablonec predicted score
Freiburg on the ball, Jablonec waiting for the counter.
Schuster expects Jablonec to defend deep and wait for the counter, the way they got past Rangers. Freiburg had 17.3 shots a game over their last ten and allowed 8.5, so the home side should have most of the ball and most of the chances. 3:0 is our main score; 2:1 is the version where Jablonec score on the break. Even with some rotation before Leverkusen, Freiburg have enough on the bench to win this. Any Freiburg win settles the leg; a draw or a Jablonec win loses it.
- Predicted score
- 3:0
- Alternative
- 2:1
Your score
SCF
JAB
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Freiburg vs Jablonec pick: Freiburg win
Freiburg win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Freiburg are one of the best sides in Germany on chance quality right now: 2.05 expected goals for and 0.88 against per league game, and the table has them top. Jablonec are a solid Czech side with 17 points from ten rounds, but Freiburg are at home and need only a win. Even with rotation they have the depth to score twice. We expect a clear home win.
Our probability76–79%
Our pickFreiburg win
Leg odds1.22
Main scenario3:0
- Our scenario
- 3:0alternative 2:1
What would change our mind An official Freiburg line-up with six or more changes from Sunday's win over Schalke: then we would drop the leg.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Freiburg win | 1.22 | 82% |
| Draw | 6.16 | 16.2% |
| Jablonec win | 11.22 | 8.9% |
Odds snapshot 15 OCT 07:35 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Freiburg play at Bayer Leverkusen on Sunday, and Schuster may rest part of his starting side.
- Jablonec knocked Rangers out: they know how to defend for 90 minutes in Europe.
- Our data on Jablonec is thin: ESPN covers only their six qualifying games, so their shot numbers rest on a small sample.
- Jablonec's team news comes from one source only.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Freiburg win is one leg of our double No. 95. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.49, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 95 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Freiburg win at 1.22
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:0Bet at 1.22
- Happened
- 3:2Freiburg win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.