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Football · Europe · Europa League · League phase, matchday 2 · Lisbon

BenficavsCeltic prediction

Score
4:1
Date
15 OCT
City
Lisbon
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Benfica vs Celtic?

Our Benfica vs Celtic prediction is a Benfica win, most likely 2:0. Benfica have won nine of their last ten games with 30 goals for and 7 against, and opened the Europa League with a 2:0 win at AC Milan. Celtic lead the Scottish Premiership but lost three in a row in September, including 1:3 at home to Ferencváros on matchday 1, and come to Lisbon without Cameron Carter-Vickers and Alistair Johnston. Benfica are one leg of our double tonight, with SC Freiburg.

Predicted score · alt 2:1
2:0
Our estimate
76–79%
Benfica win · odds 1.22Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Benfica win
Our bet
Double No. 95 · total odds 1.49
Leg odds
1.22

Benfica vs Celtic at a glance

MatchBenfica vs Celtic
CompetitionUEFA Europa League · League phase, matchday 2
Kick-off15 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 Lisbon
VenueEstádio da Luz, Lisbon
Our pickBenfica win · 1.22 · Double No. 95 · total odds 1.49
Our estimate76–79%
Predicted score2:0
Main reasonBenfica are stronger than Celtic in every number we have: nine wins in ten, 30 goals scored and opponents held to 2.1 shots on target a game.
No. 04 · Form

Benfica vs Celtic: recent form

Benfica 12 from 15. Celtic 6 from 15.

Benfica12 pts
  • Winvs Vitória de Guimarães2:0
  • Lossvs FC Porto1:3
  • Winvs AC Milan2:0
  • Winvs Gil Vicente3:1
  • Winvs Moreirense4:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Celtic6 pts
  • Winvs Motherwell2:0
  • Lossvs Rangers0:1
  • Lossvs Ferencváros1:3
  • Lossvs Rangers0:3
  • Winvs St Johnstone1:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
20%
Key factBenfica beat Vitória de Guimarães 2:0 on Sunday and are second in the Portuguese league with 19 points from eight games. Over ten games they are 9-0-1 with 30 goals for and 7 against; the only defeat was 1:3 at Porto. In those ten games Benfica put 6.9 shots a game on target and allowed 2.1, which is 77% of all shots on target. Celtic are top in Scotland with 21 points from eight games, but before Sunday's 2:0 at Motherwell they lost three in a row: 0:3 at Rangers in the League Cup, 1:3 at home to Ferencváros and 0:1 at home to Rangers. Over ten games they are 6-0-4, 15:14, a run that includes a 1:5 defeat at LASK in Champions League qualifying. Both teams had four days of rest.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Benfica vs Celtic team news

Celtic without Carter-Vickers, Johnston and Yang; Benfica without Barrenechea.

Benfica
  • OutEnzo BarrenecheaKnee injury
  • DoubtJakub KamińskiMuscle injury
Celtic
  • OutCameron Carter-VickersInjury
  • OutAlistair JohnstonInjury
  • OutYang Hyun-junInjury
  • DoubtCallum OsmandAnkle injury
TacticsEnzo Barrenechea (knee) is out for Benfica until November, and Jakub Kamiński (muscle) is a doubt: Sports Mole lists him as doubtful, Khel Now as out. Soccernews reports that Clément Lenglet is available again after serving a league ban. Sports Mole expects a 4-2-3-1: Trubin; Bah, Circati, Araújo, El Karouani; Palhinha, Aursnes; Lukebakio, Prestianni, Schjelderup; Pavlidis. Celtic are without Cameron Carter-Vickers, Alistair Johnston and Yang Hyun-jun, confirmed by both previews that list absences; Callum Osmand (ankle) is a doubt for Sports Mole and out for Khel Now. That leaves Celtic without their senior centre-back and their first-choice right-back. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3

Who do others back in Benfica vs Celtic?

All three previews we read back a Benfica win.

SourcePickVersus us
Sports MoleBenfica 2:0Same side
Khel NowBenfica 3:1Same side
SoccernewsBenfica win, under 4.5 goalsSame side
Our positionWe agree on the winner. Sports Mole sees 2:0 and Khel Now 3:1, and Soccernews also expects a Benfica win. Benfica scored two or more in nine of their last ten games, but Celtic put shots on target even when they lose, so we take the straight win with no handicap.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Benfica vs Celtic predicted score

Benfica on the ball at the Luz, Celtic trying to hold out.

Benfica should have the ball and push Celtic back from the start. Celtic arrive with a back line missing Carter-Vickers and Johnston, and Benfica have won six and drawn one of their seven home games this season (Sports Mole). We expect Benfica to score before half-time and control the second half, which is why 2:0 is our main score. 2:1 is the version where Celtic, who put 7.4 shots a game on target over their last ten, get one back. Any Benfica win settles the leg; a draw or a Celtic win loses it.

Predicted score
2:0
Alternative
2:1
Your score
BEN2
CEL0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Benfica vs Celtic pick: Benfica win

Benfica win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Benfica are stronger than Celtic in every number we have: nine wins in ten, 30 goals scored and opponents held to 2.1 shots on target a game. Celtic arrive without Carter-Vickers and Johnston and already lost 1:3 at home to Ferencváros in this competition. Benfica's next game is a week away, at Omonia, so there is no reason to rotate. We expect them to score first and see it out.

Our probability76–79%
Our pickBenfica win
Leg odds1.22
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
2:0alternative 2:1

What would change our mind An official Benfica line-up without both Vangelis Pavlidis and João Palhinha: then the attack and the screen in front of the defence change, and we would drop the leg.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Benfica win1.2282%
Draw6.4215.6%
Celtic win10.829.2%

Odds snapshot 15 OCT 06:35 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Benfica lost 1:3 at Porto last month: they can still have a bad night against a strong side.
  2. Celtic put 7.4 shots a game on target over ten games and create chances even in defeat.
  3. The price is short (1.24), so a slip here costs the whole double.
  4. Kamiński's fitness is unclear: one preview has him doubtful, the other out.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Benfica win is one leg of our double No. 95. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.49, 2.00 units.

Leg 1 · this match
Benfica win @ 1.22
Leg 2
Freiburg win @ 1.22
Total odds
1.49 · 2.00 units
Published
15 OCT 06:30
Open double No. 95 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Benfica win at 1.22
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:0Bet at 1.22
Happened
4:1Benfica win
Won

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.