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Double · No. 96 · 15 OCTWon

Twente vs Thun + Celta vs Juventus

  1. 01Twente vs ThunTwente win1.20 · Won
  2. 02Celta vs JuventusJuventus or draw1.30 · Won
Total odds
1.56
Stake
2.00 units
P&L
+1.12 units
Our estimate
54–59%
Published 15 OCT 06:33
Odds: average of 6 popular bookmakers, 15 OCT 06:3518+Play responsibly
Why this betTwo European nights, one home favourite and one away side we expect not to lose. FC Twente host an FC Thun side that won the Swiss title last season but are ninth of 12 now, with six defeats in ten league games. Juventus go to Vigo to face a Celta team with one LaLiga win this season, but without Yıldız, Locatelli and Thuram, so we cover the draw there rather than back an away win.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Conference League · 15 OCT · 20:00 UK

Twente vs Thun

Twente win1.20Won
Why this pickTwente have lost once in eight Eredivisie rounds, beat PSV 3:2 in their last home game and take 21.9 shots a game against 11.2 over their last ten. Wout Weghorst has five goals and three assists in his last seven. Thun lost 2:4 at Zürich on Saturday, have six defeats in ten league games and conceded 27 goals, and lost 0:7 to Lech Poznań in August. The prices give Twente 78%, and all four previews we read pick them. Our score is 3:1; any Twente win settles the leg.
Predicted score · alt 2:1
3:1
Our estimate · Twente win
77–80%

Form · Twente 11 from 15. Thun 4 from 15.

Twente11 pts
  • Drawvs Fortuna Sittard1:1
  • Winvs PSV3:2
  • Winvs ADO Den Haag2:0
  • Winvs Telstar1:0
  • Drawvs Groningen2:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Thun4 pts
  • Lossvs FC Zürich2:4
  • Drawvs Lech Poznań2:2
  • Lossvs Lech Poznań0:7
  • Lossvs Víkingur Reykjavík2:3
  • Winvs Víkingur Reykjavík3:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
3.20
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%

Lineups · Expected

  • Twente
  • OutStav LemkinMuscle injury
  • OutGenís MontolioCruciate ligament injury
  • OutLars UnnerstallExpected out, one source
  • DoubtFilip ThorvaldsenNearing a return, one source
  • DoubtMarc GutbubInjury, one source
  • Thun
  • No absences reported.

What others predict · Consensus 4 of 4

Our positionWe agree with all four on the winner. The scores we read are 3:0 and 3:1, and ours is 3:1: Thun have 17 league goals in ten games, so we do not count on a clean sheet.

Scenario & score

Twente on the ball, Thun waiting for a break. Twente should have most of the ball and the shots, as they have in most games this season, with Weghorst as the target and Rots, Taha and Pjaca running behind him. Thun have conceded 27 goals in 10 league games and lost four of their last five, so an early Twente goal should open the game. 3:1 is our main score; 2:1 is the alternative if Thun, who have 17 league goals, find the net twice. Any Twente win settles the leg; a draw or a Thun win loses it.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Twente failed to win two of their last five, drawing at Fortuna Sittard and Groningen.
  2. 02Thun score goals: 17 in 10 league games, two of them at Zürich on Saturday, and they beat Víkingur Reykjavík 3:0 in the summer.
  3. 03Twente host Utrecht in the Eredivisie in three days, so Van den Brom may rotate.
Key factTwente drew 1:1 at Fortuna Sittard on Saturday after beating PSV 3:2, ADO Den Haag 2:0 and Telstar 1:0 at home and drawing 2:2 at Groningen. Over their last ten games they are 6-3-1 with 23 goals scored and 12 conceded, and they take 21.9 shots a game against 11.2. Wout Weghorst has five goals and three assists in his last seven games (Sports Mole). Thun won the Swiss title last season on their return to the top flight, but this season they are ninth with 10 points from 10 games (three wins, one draw, six defeats, goals 17:27), 18 points behind leaders Lugano, after a 2:4 defeat at Zürich on Saturday (Plattform J). In the summer they went out of Champions League qualifying to Dinamo Zagreb and lost 0:7 and 2:2 to Lech Poznań in the Europa League play-off.
Full match analysis
Leg 2 · Football · Europe · Europa League · 15 OCT · 20:00 UK

Celta vs Juventus

Juventus or draw1.30Won
Why this pickJuventus create 1.94 expected goals a game in Serie A and allow 0.49 (Understat); Celta create 1.00, allow 1.24 and have won one LaLiga game this season. Juventus beat NEC 5:0 on matchday 1, while Celta lost 0:1 at Omonia. Juventus are without Yıldız, Locatelli and Thuram and drew at Cagliari on Sunday, and the prices give them only 44% to win, so we cover the draw. Sports Mole and Squawka both pick Juventus; our score is 1:2, and 1:1 also wins the leg.
Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:2
Our estimate · Juventus or draw
72–75%

Form · Celta 6 from 15. Juventus 8 from 15.

Celta6 pts
  • Drawvs Elche0:0
  • Winvs Racing Santander5:0
  • Lossvs Omonia0:1
  • Drawvs Málaga1:1
  • Drawvs Getafe1:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
20%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Juventus8 pts
  • Drawvs Cagliari1:1
  • Winvs Atalanta2:0
  • Winvs NEC Nijmegen5:0
  • Lossvs Sassuolo2:3
  • Drawvs AC Milan1:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%

Lineups · Expected

  • Celta
  • OutCarl StarfeltUnavailable
  • OutMiguel RománUnavailable
  • OutJones El-AbdellaouiOut until next year
  • Juventus
  • OutKenan YıldızUnavailable
  • OutManuel LocatelliUnavailable
  • OutKhéphren ThuramUnavailable
  • OutJérémie BogaUnavailable
  • OutJeff EkhatorUnavailable
  • OutKamil GrabaraUnavailable

What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3

Our positionWe agree that Juventus are the better side, but with three of their midfielders out and a narrow gap in the Kickoff.co.uk model, we cover the draw. Our score is 1:2, as at Sports Mole.

Scenario & score

Juventus control the ball; Celta wait for a set piece or an Aspas moment. Juventus should have more of the ball and the better chances, as they have in most games this season, taking 17.9 shots a game against 8.4 over ten matches. Celta average 3.4 shots on target a game and rarely create much, but Sports Mole calls them awkward opponents at Balaídos, and Aspas is back. 1:2 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if Juventus miss Yıldız's creativity. Juventus or a draw wins with 1:2, 0:1, 0:2, 1:1 or 0:0 and loses only if Celta win.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Juventus are without Yıldız, Locatelli and Thuram: their main creator and two central midfielders.
  2. 02Juventus did not win their last two away league games: 2:3 at Sassuolo and 1:1 at Cagliari.
  3. 03Celta are awkward at home (Sports Mole) and Iago Aspas is back in the squad.
  4. 04Both teams play again in three days, Celta against Alavés and Juventus against Lazio, so either side may rotate.
Key factCelta drew 0:0 at Elche on Sunday after a 5:0 home win over Racing Santander, a 0:1 defeat at Omonia on matchday 1, 1:1 at home to Málaga and 1:1 at Getafe. Over ten games they are 2-5-3 with nine goals scored and seven conceded, and in LaLiga they create 1.00 expected goals a game and allow 1.24. Juventus drew 1:1 at Cagliari on Sunday, after beating Atalanta 2:0 and NEC 5:0 at home, losing 2:3 at Sassuolo and drawing 1:1 with AC Milan. They are 5-3-2 over ten games, sixth in Serie A (Sports Mole), and their 11 points are almost four fewer than their chances were worth (Understat). Over the last ten games Juventus had 68% of the shots on target in their matches, Celta 49%.
Full match analysis