Conceição punched the bench after his exit. Spalletti: be angry with yourself
Our take Juve's problem is the attack, not the temper
Football · Europe · Europa League · League phase, matchday 2 · Vigo
CeltavsJuventus Celta Vigo vs Juventus · prediction
Score
1:2
Date
15 OCT
City
Vigo
Status
Full time
CEL1:2JUVFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Celta vs Juventus?
Our Celta Vigo vs Juventus prediction is Juventus or a draw, most likely 1:2 to Juventus. Luciano Spalletti's Juventus create 1.94 expected goals a game in Serie A and allow only 0.49 (Understat), while Claudio Giráldez's Celta have won one LaLiga game this season and lost 0:1 in Cyprus on Europa League matchday 1. Juventus travel without Yıldız, Locatelli and Thuram, so we cover the draw instead of backing an away win. Juventus or a draw is a leg of our double with FC Twente tonight.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:2
- Our estimate
- 72–75%
- Market
- Juventus or draw
- Our bet
- Double No. 96 · total odds 1.56
- Leg odds
- 1.30
Celta vs Juventus at a glance
| Match | Celta Vigo vs Juventus |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Europa League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 15 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Vigo |
| Venue | Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo |
| Our pick | Juventus or draw · 1.30 · Double No. 96 · total odds 1.56 |
| Our estimate | 72–75% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 |
| Main reason | We do not back a Juventus win in Spain, but we do not see how Celta beat them. |
No. 04 · Form
Celta vs Juventus: recent form
Celta 6 from 15. Juventus 8 from 15.
Celta6 pts
- Drawvs Elche0:0
- Winvs Racing Santander5:0
- Lossvs Omonia0:1
- Drawvs Málaga1:1
- Drawvs Getafe1:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 20%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Juventus8 pts
- Drawvs Cagliari1:1
- Winvs Atalanta2:0
- Winvs NEC Nijmegen5:0
- Lossvs Sassuolo2:3
- Drawvs AC Milan1:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factCelta drew 0:0 at Elche on Sunday after a 5:0 home win over Racing Santander, a 0:1 defeat at Omonia on matchday 1, 1:1 at home to Málaga and 1:1 at Getafe. Over ten games they are 2-5-3 with nine goals scored and seven conceded, and in LaLiga they create 1.00 expected goals a game and allow 1.24. Juventus drew 1:1 at Cagliari on Sunday, after beating Atalanta 2:0 and NEC 5:0 at home, losing 2:3 at Sassuolo and drawing 1:1 with AC Milan. They are 5-3-2 over ten games, sixth in Serie A (Sports Mole), and their 11 points are almost four fewer than their chances were worth (Understat). Over the last ten games Juventus had 68% of the shots on target in their matches, Celta 49%.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Celta vs Juventus team news
Juventus without Yıldız, Locatelli and Thuram; Aspas back for Celta.
Celta
- OutCarl StarfeltUnavailable
- OutMiguel RománUnavailable
- OutJones El-AbdellaouiOut until next year
Juventus
- OutKenan YıldızUnavailable
- OutManuel LocatelliUnavailable
- OutKhéphren ThuramUnavailable
- OutJérémie BogaUnavailable
- OutJeff EkhatorUnavailable
- OutKamil GrabaraUnavailable
TacticsJuventus are without Kenan Yıldız, captain Manuel Locatelli, Khéphren Thuram, Jérémie Boga, Jeff Ekhator and reserve goalkeeper Kamil Grabara (Sports Mole and Khel Now agree). That takes out their main creator and two central midfielders. Lloyd Kelly is available after serving his UEFA ban against NEC, and Sports Mole expects Randal Kolo Muani up front with Weston McKennie behind him. Celta are without Carl Starfelt, Miguel Román and Jones El-Abdellaoui, who is not due back until next year. Iago Aspas missed the trip to Nicosia through injury but was back on the bench on Sunday. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Openda went back to Lens, the club that made him. He left in the medics' arms
Our take If it is long, Juventus lose most
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Celta vs Juventus?
Every source we read has Juventus avoiding defeat, two of them with an away win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Juventus 1:2 | Same side |
| Squawka | Juventus 0:2 | Same side |
| Kickoff.co.uk | Expected goals: Celta 1.2, Juventus 1.5 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree that Juventus are the better side, but with three of their midfielders out and a narrow gap in the Kickoff.co.uk model, we cover the draw. Our score is 1:2, as at Sports Mole.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Celta vs Juventus predicted score
Juventus control the ball; Celta wait for a set piece or an Aspas moment.
Juventus should have more of the ball and the better chances, as they have in most games this season, taking 17.9 shots a game against 8.4 over ten matches. Celta average 3.4 shots on target a game and rarely create much, but Sports Mole calls them awkward opponents at Balaídos, and Aspas is back. 1:2 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if Juventus miss Yıldız's creativity. Juventus or a draw wins with 1:2, 0:1, 0:2, 1:1 or 0:0 and loses only if Celta win.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
CEL
JUV
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Celta vs Juventus pick: Juventus or draw
Juventus or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We do not back a Juventus win in Spain, but we do not see how Celta beat them. Juventus allow fewer than half an expected goal a game in Serie A, and Celta have won one LaLiga game all season and create only 1.00 expected goals a game. All three previews we read have Juventus avoiding defeat. A draw suits us; our score is 1:2.
Our probability72–75%
Our pickJuventus or draw
Leg odds1.30
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 1:2alternative 1:1
What would change our mind An official Juventus line-up of reserves, saved for Sunday's game against Lazio: then we drop the leg.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Celta win | 3.43 | 29.2% |
| Draw | 3.26 | 30.7% |
| Juventus win | 2.15 | 46.5% |
| Celta or draw | 1.67 | 59.9% |
| Juventus or draw | 1.30 | 76.9% |
Odds snapshot 15 OCT 07:35 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Celta could win.
- Juventus are without Yıldız, Locatelli and Thuram: their main creator and two central midfielders.
- Juventus did not win their last two away league games: 2:3 at Sassuolo and 1:1 at Cagliari.
- Celta are awkward at home (Sports Mole) and Iago Aspas is back in the squad.
- Both teams play again in three days, Celta against Alavés and Juventus against Lazio, so either side may rotate.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Juventus or draw is one leg of our double No. 96. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.56, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 96 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Juventus or draw at 1.30
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:2Bet at 1.30
- Happened
- 1:2Juventus win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.