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Football · Europe · Conference League · League phase, matchday 1 · Enschede

TwentevsThun FC Twente vs FC Thun · prediction

Score
1:0
Date
15 OCT
City
Enschede
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Twente vs Thun?

Our FC Twente vs FC Thun prediction is a Twente win, most likely 3:1. John van den Brom's Twente have lost once in eight Eredivisie rounds and beat PSV 3:2 in their last home game, while Thun, the Swiss champions, have lost four of their last five league games and sit ninth of 12. The prices give Twente 78% for the Conference League opener in Enschede. A Twente win is one leg of our double with Juventus tonight.

Predicted score · alt 2:1
3:1
Our estimate
77–80%
Twente win · odds 1.20Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Twente win
Our bet
Double No. 96 · total odds 1.56
Leg odds
1.20

Twente vs Thun at a glance

MatchFC Twente vs FC Thun
CompetitionUEFA Conference League · League phase, matchday 1
Kick-off15 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Enschede
VenueDe Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Our pickTwente win · 1.20 · Double No. 96 · total odds 1.56
Our estimate77–80%
Predicted score3:1
Main reasonWe expect Twente to win at home.
No. 04 · Form

Twente vs Thun: recent form

Twente 11 from 15. Thun 4 from 15.

Twente11 pts
  • Drawvs Fortuna Sittard1:1
  • Winvs PSV3:2
  • Winvs ADO Den Haag2:0
  • Winvs Telstar1:0
  • Drawvs Groningen2:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Thun4 pts
  • Lossvs FC Zürich2:4
  • Drawvs Lech Poznań2:2
  • Lossvs Lech Poznań0:7
  • Lossvs Víkingur Reykjavík2:3
  • Winvs Víkingur Reykjavík3:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
3.20
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Key factTwente drew 1:1 at Fortuna Sittard on Saturday after beating PSV 3:2, ADO Den Haag 2:0 and Telstar 1:0 at home and drawing 2:2 at Groningen. Over their last ten games they are 6-3-1 with 23 goals scored and 12 conceded, and they take 21.9 shots a game against 11.2. Wout Weghorst has five goals and three assists in his last seven games (Sports Mole). Thun won the Swiss title last season on their return to the top flight, but this season they are ninth with 10 points from 10 games (three wins, one draw, six defeats, goals 17:27), 18 points behind leaders Lugano, after a 2:4 defeat at Zürich on Saturday (Plattform J). In the summer they went out of Champions League qualifying to Dinamo Zagreb and lost 0:7 and 2:2 to Lech Poznań in the Europa League play-off.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Twente vs Thun team news

Weghorst leads Twente; Thun report no absences.

Twente
  • OutStav LemkinMuscle injury
  • OutGenís MontolioCruciate ligament injury
  • OutLars UnnerstallExpected out, one source
  • DoubtFilip ThorvaldsenNearing a return, one source
  • DoubtMarc GutbubInjury, one source
Thun

No absences reported.

TacticsSports Mole has Twente without Stav Lemkin, who has not played this season because of a muscle injury from pre-season, and Genís Montolio, out with a cruciate ligament injury until January. Lars Unnerstall is expected to miss out, and Filip Thorvaldsen and Marc Gutbub are close to a return but unlikely to start; another preview we read names no Twente injuries, so these rest on one source. The expected Twente side: Drommel; Van Rooy, Propper, Mosiak, Adelgaard; Zerrouki, Weidmann; Rots, Taha, Pjaca; Weghorst. Thun, coached by Gian-Luca Privitelli, report no absences. Defender Bamert was sent off at Zürich on Saturday, a domestic ban that does not apply in Europe. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4

Who do others back in Twente vs Thun?

All four previews we read expect a Twente win, three of them by two goals or more.

SourcePickVersus us
Sports MoleTwente 3:0Same side
SportyTraderTwente to win (model 67.6%)Same side
footballpredictions.comTwente 3:1Same side
Prediction site (model)Twente 77%Same side
Our positionWe agree with all four on the winner. The scores we read are 3:0 and 3:1, and ours is 3:1: Thun have 17 league goals in ten games, so we do not count on a clean sheet.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Twente vs Thun predicted score

Twente on the ball, Thun waiting for a break.

Twente should have most of the ball and the shots, as they have in most games this season, with Weghorst as the target and Rots, Taha and Pjaca running behind him. Thun have conceded 27 goals in 10 league games and lost four of their last five, so an early Twente goal should open the game. 3:1 is our main score; 2:1 is the alternative if Thun, who have 17 league goals, find the net twice. Any Twente win settles the leg; a draw or a Thun win loses it.

Predicted score
3:1
Alternative
2:1
Your score
TWE3
THU1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Twente vs Thun pick: Twente win

Twente win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We expect Twente to win at home. They take almost twice as many shots as they allow, beat PSV 3:2 in their last home game and have Weghorst in form. Thun won the Swiss title last season but are ninth now, with six defeats in ten league games and 27 goals conceded, and they lost 0:7 to Lech Poznań in August. Our score is 3:1, and any Twente win is enough.

Our probability77–80%
Our pickTwente win
Leg odds1.20
Main scenario3:1
Our scenario
3:1alternative 2:1

What would change our mind Weghorst left out of the squad, or a heavily rotated Twente side before Sunday's game against Utrecht: then we drop the leg.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Twente win1.2083.3%
Draw6.7914.7%
Thun win11.139%

Odds snapshot 15 OCT 07:35 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Twente failed to win two of their last five, drawing at Fortuna Sittard and Groningen.
  2. Thun score goals: 17 in 10 league games, two of them at Zürich on Saturday, and they beat Víkingur Reykjavík 3:0 in the summer.
  3. Twente host Utrecht in the Eredivisie in three days, so Van den Brom may rotate.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Twente win is one leg of our double No. 96. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.56, 2.00 units.

Leg 1 · this match
Twente win @ 1.20
Leg 2
Juventus or draw @ 1.30
Total odds
1.56 · 2.00 units
Published
15 OCT 07:28
Open double No. 96 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Twente win at 1.20
No. 12 · After the match
We said
3:1Bet at 1.20
Happened
1:0Twente win
Won

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.