Double · No. 104 · 17 OCTWon
Bayern vs Leipzig + Espanyol vs Atlético
- 01Bayern vs LeipzigBayern win1.19 · Won
- 02Espanyol vs AtléticoAtlético or draw1.18 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.40
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- +0.80 units
- Our estimate
- 64–66%
Published 17 OCT 07:14
Odds: average of 8 popular bookmakers, 17 OCT 07:1718+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 8 popular bookmakers, 17 OCT 07:1718+Play responsibly
Why this betA Saturday double on two in-form favourites. Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig after winning all three home league games this season 17:1 on aggregate, and Leipzig have lost all three of their away games since August. Atlético Madrid go to Espanyol on a five-game winning run, but at 1.70 away from home we cover the draw and take Atlético or draw rather than the win.
Leg 1 · Football · Germany · Bundesliga · 17 OCT · 17:30 UK
Bayern vs Leipzig
Bayern win1.19Won
Why this pickBayern are unbeaten in ten (seven wins, 33:9) and hit the target 9.0 times a game while allowing 2.6 over that run. Understat has them at 3.58 expected goals for and 0.99 against per game in the Bundesliga. Leipzig create plenty (2.70 a game) but lost at Leverkusen and Como. Sports Mole and the Kickoff.co.uk model both pick Bayern 3:1. The risk: Bayern drew their last two, 3:3 at Viking and 2:2 at Augsburg, and Musiala is reported out.
- Predicted score · alt 2:0
- 3:1
- Our estimate · Bayern win
- 80–81%
Form · Bayern 11 from 15. Leipzig 9 from 15.
Bayern11 pts
- Drawvs Viking FK3:3
- Drawvs Augsburg2:2
- Winvs Union Berlin7:0
- Winvs Elversberg2:1
- Winvs Bodø/Glimt5:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Leipzig9 pts
- Winvs PSV1:0
- Winvs Eintracht Frankfurt6:0
- Lossvs Leverkusen0:2
- Winvs Hamburger SV5:0
- Lossvs Como1:4
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 20%
Lineups · Expected
- Bayern
- OutJamal MusialaThigh injury, reported by one preview
- DoubtManuel NeuerFoot problem, reported by one preview
- FormHarry KaneExpected to lead the line
- Leipzig
- OutChristoph BaumgartnerHamstring injury, reported by one preview
- OutAssan OuédraogoShoulder injury, reported by one preview
- OutGuiuHamstring injury, reported by one preview
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2
Our positionTwo of two back Bayern and name the same score, 3:1, which is ours too. It is a short list, so the numbers carry more weight for us than the previews: Bayern's home record this season and their shot count over ten games. According to Sports Mole, Leipzig have not beaten Bayern since the 2023 Super Cup.
Scenario & score
Bayern push, Leipzig get chances on the break. Bayern took 26.2 shots a game over their last five and allowed 6.2. Leipzig create a lot themselves (2.70 expected goals a game), so a Leipzig goal is likely, but Bayern have conceded one goal in three home league games. 3:1 is our main score and 2:0 the tidier version. The leg wins with any Bayern win (1:0, 2:1, 3:1 and up) and loses with a draw or a Leipzig win; the danger case is a repeat of the 2:2 at Augsburg.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Bayern drew their last two games and conceded five goals in them.
- 02Musiala is reported out and Neuer may miss the game, while Leipzig create 2.70 expected goals a game.
- 03Arsenal come to Munich on Wednesday; Kompany may manage minutes.
Key factBayern are unbeaten in ten games (seven wins, three draws, 33:9). The last two were draws: 3:3 at Viking FK in the Champions League on Tuesday after an equaliser in the 90th minute, and 2:2 at Augsburg on 10 October. Before that they beat Union Berlin 7:0 at home, won 2:1 at Elversberg and beat Bodø/Glimt 5:0. Over ten games they took 22.1 shots a game and allowed 6.7. Leipzig beat PSV 1:0 on Tuesday and won 6:0 against Eintracht Frankfurt and 5:0 against Hamburger SV at home, but lost 0:2 at Leverkusen and 1:4 at Como. Understat for this Bundesliga season: Bayern create 3.58 expected goals a game and allow 0.99, Leipzig 2.70 and 1.42. Bayern are third with 11 points, Leipzig fifth with 9 (Sports Mole).
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Spain · LaLiga · 17 OCT · 13:00 UK
Espanyol vs Atlético
Atlético or draw1.18Won
Why this pickAtlético beat Real Madrid 2:1 and Manchester United 2:0 in their last five, all wins, with 13 goals scored and two conceded, and two previews report no injuries. Espanyol have one point from three LaLiga games and are without Jofre Carreras and Kike García. Sports Mole and footballpredictions.com both see 1:2. Espanyol have scored in all of their last ten games and Atlético visit Stuttgart on Tuesday, so a draw is possible; it also wins the leg.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:2
- Our estimate · Atlético or draw
- 80–82%
Form · Espanyol 5 from 15. Atlético 15 from 15.
Espanyol5 pts
- Drawvs Málaga1:1
- Lossvs Elche1:3
- Lossvs Rayo1:2
- Winvs Osasuna2:0
- Drawvs Sevilla1:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Atlético15 pts
- Winvs Man United2:0
- Winvs Alavés2:1
- Winvs Real Madrid2:1
- Winvs Osasuna4:0
- Winvs Real Sociedad3:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- Espanyol
- OutJofre CarrerasRuled out, reported by two previews
- OutKike GarcíaRuled out, reported by two previews
- FormRoberto Fernández6 goals in 8 LaLiga games
- Atlético
- DoubtKokeMay return to the squad, reported by one preview
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionSports Mole and footballpredictions.com both see 1:2, which is also our main score. The Kickoff.co.uk model makes Atlético favourites but names 1:1 as the single most likely score and gives Atlético or draw 73%, below our range. That gap is why we do not back the away win on its own: a draw also wins our leg.
Scenario & score
Atlético control it, Espanyol still find a goal. Atlético took 18.2 shots a game over their last five and allowed 7.2, so they should have most of the ball in Cornellà. Espanyol scored in all of their last ten games, which is why we expect a goal at both ends. 1:2 is our main score and 1:1 the cautious version. The leg wins with any draw or any Atlético win (0:0, 1:1, 0:1, 1:2, 0:2 and so on) and loses only if Espanyol win.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Espanyol scored in all of their last ten games and had eight days of rest; Atlético had four.
- 02Atlético play in Stuttgart on Tuesday, and Simeone may rest players.
- 03Atlético's points run about four ahead of their expected points, and the Kickoff.co.uk model gives them or the draw only 73%.
Key factAtlético have won five straight: 3:0 at Real Sociedad, 4:0 against Osasuna, 2:1 against Real Madrid, 2:1 at Alavés and 2:0 against Manchester United on Tuesday. They are second in LaLiga with 19 points, five behind Barcelona (Sports Mole). Over their last ten games they hit the target 6.1 times a game and allow 3.5. Espanyol drew 1:1 at Málaga on 9 October after a 1:3 home defeat to Elche and a 1:2 loss at Rayo; before that they won 2:0 at Osasuna and drew 1:1 with Sevilla. They are 12th with 8 points from 8 games and land 4.2 shots on target a game against 5.2 conceded. Understat, LaLiga this season: Atlético create 1.96 expected goals a game and allow 1.19; Espanyol 1.35 and 1.36. One caution: Atlético have about four points more than their expected points.
Full match analysis