Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig prediction and odds

No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Bayern vs Leipzig?

Our Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig prediction is a Bayern win, most likely 3:1, at the Allianz Arena on Saturday evening. Bayern have won all three home league games this season with a 17:1 goal difference, and over their last ten games they hit the target 9.0 times a game while allowing 2.6. Leipzig lost all three of their away games since their 6:0 win at Trier on 22 August (Sports Mole). Bayern drew their last two, 3:3 at Viking and 2:2 at Augsburg, and we expect them to answer at home. The pick is one leg of a double with Atlético Madrid.

Predicted score · alt 2:0: 3:1
Our estimate: 80–81%

Bayern win · odds 1.19Our estimate, not a guarantee

Why this call18+Play responsibly

Market: Bayern win
Our bet: Double No. 104 · total odds 1.40
Leg odds: 1.19

Bayern vs Leipzig at a glance

Match	Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
Competition	Bundesliga · Matchday 6
Kick-off	17 OCT · 17:30 UK · 18:30 Munich
Venue	Allianz Arena, Munich
Our pick	Bayern win · 1.19 · Double No. 104 · total odds 1.40
Our estimate	80–81%
Predicted score	3:1
Main reason	At home this season Bayern have not given anyone a chance: three wins, 17 goals scored and one conceded, and 78% of the shots on target in their games over the last ten.

No. 04 · Form

Bayern vs Leipzig: recent form

Bayern 11 from 15. Leipzig 9 from 15.

Bayern11 pts

Drawvs Viking FK3:3
Drawvs Augsburg2:2
Winvs Union Berlin7:0
Winvs Elversberg2:1
Winvs Bodø/Glimt5:0

: 3.80
: 1.20
: 100%
: 60%

Leipzig9 pts

Winvs PSV1:0
Winvs Eintracht Frankfurt6:0
Lossvs Leverkusen0:2
Winvs Hamburger SV5:0
Lossvs Como1:4

: 2.60
: 1.20
: 60%
: 20%

Key factBayern are unbeaten in ten games (seven wins, three draws, 33:9). The last two were draws: 3:3 at Viking FK in the Champions League on Tuesday after an equaliser in the 90th minute, and 2:2 at Augsburg on 10 October. Before that they beat Union Berlin 7:0 at home, won 2:1 at Elversberg and beat Bodø/Glimt 5:0. Over ten games they took 22.1 shots a game and allowed 6.7. Leipzig beat PSV 1:0 on Tuesday and won 6:0 against Eintracht Frankfurt and 5:0 against Hamburger SV at home, but lost 0:2 at Leverkusen and 1:4 at Como. Understat for this Bundesliga season: Bayern create 3.58 expected goals a game and allow 0.99, Leipzig 2.70 and 1.42. Bayern are third with 11 points, Leipzig fifth with 9 (Sports Mole).

No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Bayern vs Leipzig team news

Bayern reportedly without Musiala, Neuer a doubt; Leipzig missing three.

Bayern

OutJamal MusialaThigh injury, reported by one preview
DoubtManuel NeuerFoot problem, reported by one preview
FormHarry KaneExpected to lead the line

Leipzig

OutChristoph BaumgartnerHamstring injury, reported by one preview
OutAssan OuédraogoShoulder injury, reported by one preview
OutGuiuHamstring injury, reported by one preview

TacticsSports Mole reports that Jamal Musiala is out with a thigh injury and that Manuel Neuer is a doubt with a foot problem, so Jonas Urbig may start in goal. We found no second source for either, so treat both as reports. For Leipzig the same preview lists Christoph Baumgartner (hamstring), Assan Ouédraogo (shoulder) and Guiu (hamstring) as out; again only one source. Sports Mole's expected Bayern XI: Urbig; Stanišić, Upamecano, Tah, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlović; Olise, Saibari, Díaz; Kane. Its Leipzig XI: Vandevoordt; Baku, Orbán, Lukeba, Raum; Banzuzi, El Aynaoui; Gruda, Nunku, Nusa; Rômulo. Both teams play in the Champions League on Wednesday, Bayern at home to Arsenal and Leipzig at Real Madrid, so the rotation risk is the same for both. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

In the news

Football · 22 OCT · Bayern Munich · Jürgen Klopp

Klopp still can't work out Bayern without the ball. Kompany: "Next question"

Our take Klopp's doubt comes with a number: 8 in 4

Football · 19 OCT · Bayern Munich · Arsenal

Bayern's 6-1 hid it: Olise banned, Musiala out, Neuer a doubt for Arsenal

Our take Without Olise, Arsenal arrive as the better side

Football · 13 OCT · Luis Díaz · Bayern Munich

Luis Díaz had 49 goals and assists last season. In his last six games: none

Our take No panic: Bayern have no other left winger

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Bayern vs Leipzig?

Both previews we found pick Bayern, and both see 3:1.

Source	Pick	Versus us
Sports Mole	Bayern 3:1 Leipzig	Same side
Kickoff.co.uk (model)	Bayern 78%, draw 12%, most likely score 3:1	Same side

Our positionTwo of two back Bayern and name the same score, 3:1, which is ours too. It is a short list, so the numbers carry more weight for us than the previews: Bayern's home record this season and their shot count over ten games. According to Sports Mole, Leipzig have not beaten Bayern since the 2023 Super Cup.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Bayern vs Leipzig predicted score

Bayern push, Leipzig get chances on the break.

Bayern took 26.2 shots a game over their last five and allowed 6.2. Leipzig create a lot themselves (2.70 expected goals a game), so a Leipzig goal is likely, but Bayern have conceded one goal in three home league games. 3:1 is our main score and 2:0 the tidier version. The leg wins with any Bayern win (1:0, 2:1, 3:1 and up) and loses with a draw or a Leipzig win; the danger case is a repeat of the 2:2 at Augsburg.

Predicted score: 3:1
Alternative: 2:0

Your score

FCB3

RBL1

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Bayern vs Leipzig pick: Bayern win

Bayern win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

At home this season Bayern have not given anyone a chance: three wins, 17 goals scored and one conceded, and 78% of the shots on target in their games over the last ten. Leipzig lost all three of their away games since August. After two draws, Bayern want a win before Arsenal visit. We see 3:1 or 2:0.

Our probability80–81%

Our pickBayern win

Leg odds1.19

Main scenario3:1

Our scenario: 3:1alternative 2:0

What would change our mind A Bayern team sheet without Harry Kane: then we would drop the leg.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
Bayern win	1.19	84%
Draw	7.46	13.4%
Leipzig win	9.86	10.1%

Odds snapshot 17 OCT 08:17 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why Bayern could drop points again.

Bayern drew their last two games and conceded five goals in them.
Musiala is reported out and Neuer may miss the game, while Leipzig create 2.70 expected goals a game.
Arsenal come to Munich on Wednesday; Kompany may manage minutes.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Bayern win is one leg of our double No. 104. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.40, 2.00 units.

Leg 1 · this match: Bayern win @ 1.19
Leg 2: Atlético or draw @ 1.18
Total odds: 1.40 · 2.00 units
Published: 17 OCT 08:14

Open double No. 104 →

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

08:14Prediction published · Bayern win at 1.19

No. 12 · After the match

We said: 3:1Bet at 1.19
Happened: 6:1Bayern win

Won

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

BayernvsLeipzig Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig · prediction