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Football · Spain · LaLiga · Matchday 9 · Cornellà de Llobregat
EspanyolvsAtlético RCD Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid · prediction
Score
0:1
Date
17 OCT
City
Cornellà de Llobregat
Status
Full time
ESP0:1ATMFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Espanyol vs Atlético?
Our Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid prediction: Atlético avoid defeat at the RCDE Stadium on Saturday, most likely 1:2. Diego Simeone's side have won five in a row with a 13:2 goal difference, including 2:1 against Real Madrid and 2:0 against Manchester United in the Champions League. Espanyol have one point from their last three LaLiga games and are without Jofre Carreras and Kike García. Atlético are only 1.70 favourites away from home, so we cover the draw and take Atlético or draw as one leg of a double with Bayern Munich.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:2
- Our estimate
- 80–82%
- Market
- Atlético or draw
- Our bet
- Double No. 104 · total odds 1.40
- Leg odds
- 1.18
Espanyol vs Atlético at a glance
| Match | RCD Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|
| Competition | LaLiga · Matchday 9 |
| Kick-off | 17 OCT · 13:00 UK · 14:00 Cornellà de Llobregat |
| Venue | RCDE Stadium, Cornellà de Llobregat |
| Our pick | Atlético or draw · 1.18 · Double No. 104 · total odds 1.40 |
| Our estimate | 80–82% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 |
| Main reason | Atlético are the form team in Spain after Barcelona: five wins in a row, 13 goals scored and two conceded, and no injuries reported by either preview. |
No. 04 · Form
Espanyol vs Atlético: recent form
Espanyol 5 from 15. Atlético 15 from 15.
Espanyol5 pts
- Drawvs Málaga1:1
- Lossvs Elche1:3
- Lossvs Rayo1:2
- Winvs Osasuna2:0
- Drawvs Sevilla1:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Atlético15 pts
- Winvs Man United2:0
- Winvs Alavés2:1
- Winvs Real Madrid2:1
- Winvs Osasuna4:0
- Winvs Real Sociedad3:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factAtlético have won five straight: 3:0 at Real Sociedad, 4:0 against Osasuna, 2:1 against Real Madrid, 2:1 at Alavés and 2:0 against Manchester United on Tuesday. They are second in LaLiga with 19 points, five behind Barcelona (Sports Mole). Over their last ten games they hit the target 6.1 times a game and allow 3.5. Espanyol drew 1:1 at Málaga on 9 October after a 1:3 home defeat to Elche and a 1:2 loss at Rayo; before that they won 2:0 at Osasuna and drew 1:1 with Sevilla. They are 12th with 8 points from 8 games and land 4.2 shots on target a game against 5.2 conceded. Understat, LaLiga this season: Atlético create 1.96 expected goals a game and allow 1.19; Espanyol 1.35 and 1.36. One caution: Atlético have about four points more than their expected points.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Espanyol vs Atlético team news
Espanyol without Carreras and Kike García; Atlético report no injuries.
Espanyol
- OutJofre CarrerasRuled out, reported by two previews
- OutKike GarcíaRuled out, reported by two previews
- FormRoberto Fernández6 goals in 8 LaLiga games
Atlético
- DoubtKokeMay return to the squad, reported by one preview
TacticsSports Mole and footballpredictions.com both report that Jofre Carreras and Kike García are out for Espanyol, and both say Atlético have no injury problems. Sports Mole adds that Koke may return to the squad. Roberto Fernández is Espanyol's main threat with six goals in eight league games. Sports Mole's expected Espanyol XI: Fortuño; El Hilali, Riedel, Cabrera, Hartman; Lozano, Expósito; Dolan, Hernández, Zaragoza; Fernández. Its Atlético XI: Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; G. Simeone, Barrios, Cardoso, Baena; Lee, Álvarez. Atlético play VfB Stuttgart away in the Champions League on Tuesday, so some rotation is possible. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
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Our take A new agent means a new exit plan
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Espanyol vs Atlético?
Both written previews pick an Atlético win, 1:2.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Espanyol 1:2 Atlético | Same side |
| footballpredictions.com | 1:2, Atlético win | Same side |
| Kickoff.co.uk (model) | Atlético 50%, draw 23%, most likely score 1:1 | Same side |
Our positionSports Mole and footballpredictions.com both see 1:2, which is also our main score. The Kickoff.co.uk model makes Atlético favourites but names 1:1 as the single most likely score and gives Atlético or draw 73%, below our range. That gap is why we do not back the away win on its own: a draw also wins our leg.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Espanyol vs Atlético predicted score
Atlético control it, Espanyol still find a goal.
Atlético took 18.2 shots a game over their last five and allowed 7.2, so they should have most of the ball in Cornellà. Espanyol scored in all of their last ten games, which is why we expect a goal at both ends. 1:2 is our main score and 1:1 the cautious version. The leg wins with any draw or any Atlético win (0:0, 1:1, 0:1, 1:2, 0:2 and so on) and loses only if Espanyol win.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
ESP
ATM
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Espanyol vs Atlético pick: Atlético or draw
Atlético or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Atlético are the form team in Spain after Barcelona: five wins in a row, 13 goals scored and two conceded, and no injuries reported by either preview. Espanyol have one win in five, are missing two forwards and allow more shots on target than they take. Even with rotation before Stuttgart, we do not see Espanyol beating them. A draw also suits us; our score is 1:2.
Our probability80–82%
Our pickAtlético or draw
Leg odds1.18
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 1:2alternative 1:1
What would change our mind An Atlético team sheet without both Oblak and Julián Álvarez: then we would drop the leg.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol win | 4.72 | 21.2% |
| Draw | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| Atlético win | 1.70 | 58.8% |
| Espanyol or draw | 2.12 | 47.2% |
| Atlético or draw | 1.18 | 84.7% |
Odds snapshot 17 OCT 08:17 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
How Espanyol could win this.
- Espanyol scored in all of their last ten games and had eight days of rest; Atlético had four.
- Atlético play in Stuttgart on Tuesday, and Simeone may rest players.
- Atlético's points run about four ahead of their expected points, and the Kickoff.co.uk model gives them or the draw only 73%.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Atlético or draw is one leg of our double No. 104. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.40, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 104 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Atlético or draw at 1.18
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:2Bet at 1.18
- Happened
- 0:1Atlético win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.