Double: HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt + Telstar vs Feyenoord

Why this betTwo title contenders away at sides from the bottom half. Bodø/Glimt are level on points with Viking at the top of Eliteserien and visit a HamKam team that has conceded 16 goals in five games; Feyenoord lead the Eredivisie unbeaten and visit Telstar, who have no home win this season. Both play in Europe next week, so rotation is the shared risk.

Leg 1 · Football · Norway · Eliteserien · 17 OCT · 13:00 UK

HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt

Bodø/Glimt win1.21Won

Why this pickBodø/Glimt are level on 53 points with Viking at the top and have won eight of their last ten; HamKam are 11th and have conceded 16 goals in their last five. Over ten games Bodø/Glimt take 58% of the shots on target in their matches, HamKam 34%. The risk is rotation three days before Napoli, but the gap in quality is wide enough for the straight win.

Predicted score · alt 1:1: 1:3
Our estimate · Bodø/Glimt win: 74–79%

Form · HamKam 4 from 15. Bodø/Glimt 9 from 15.

HamKam4 pts

Winvs Start4:2
Lossvs Tromsø2:3
Lossvs Molde1:5
Lossvs Rosenborg0:4
Drawvs Kristiansund2:2

: 1.80
: 3.20
: 100%
: 80%

Bodø/Glimt9 pts

Winvs Borussia Dortmund1:0
Winvs Kristiansund3:1
Lossvs Brann1:2
Winvs Sandefjord3:2
Lossvs Bayern Munich0:5

: 1.60
: 2.00
: 80%
: 60%

Lineups · Expected

HamKam
OutAnders TrondsenThigh injury
OutMarkus JohnsgaardKnee injury

Bodø/Glimt
OutHåkon EvjenKnee injury
OutAugust MikkelsenGroin injury
OutMagnus Bech RiisnæsKnee injury
OutIsak SjongKnock

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 3

Our positionWe side with the majority on the winner but not on the margin: with rotation before Napoli, we take the straight win and give no handicap.

Scenario & score

Bodø/Glimt on the ball, HamKam waiting for a mistake. Bodø/Glimt create far more than they allow: about 18 shots a game against 12 over their last ten. HamKam concede more than three goals a game in their last five and rarely control the ball against the top sides. 1:3 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: a rotated Bodø/Glimt side with tired legs after Dortmund, and HamKam scoring first at Briskeby. Any Bodø/Glimt win settles our pick, 1:0 included; a draw or a HamKam win loses it.

Arguing against ourselves

01Bodø/Glimt played Dortmund on Wednesday and go to Napoli on Tuesday, so Knutsen may rest several starters.
02HamKam had three more days of rest.
03Evjen, Mikkelsen and Riisnæs are all out, which thins Bodø/Glimt's attack.
04Bodø/Glimt lost 1:2 at Brann in their last away league game.
05HamKam scored four goals at Start last Sunday.

Key factBodø/Glimt are 8-0-2 over their last ten games with 23 goals scored, and take 58% of the shots on target in their matches. HamKam won 4:2 at Start last Sunday, but before that lost 2:3 at Tromsø, 1:5 at home to Molde and 0:4 at Rosenborg: 16 goals conceded in five games, and only 34% of the shots on target over ten. HamKam had six days of rest, Bodø/Glimt three.

Full match analysis

Leg 2 · Football · Netherlands · Eredivisie · 17 OCT · 19:00 UK

Telstar vs Feyenoord

Feyenoord win1.31Won

Why this pickFeyenoord top the Eredivisie unbeaten with 20 points and 27 goals scored; Telstar are 15th with seven goals and no home win in four, where they have conceded 11. Feyenoord won both meetings last season 2:1. They play Real Betis on Tuesday and miss several defenders, so we expect a tight win, most likely 1:2.

Predicted score · alt 1:1: 1:2
Our estimate · Feyenoord win: 70–74%

Form · Telstar 3 from 15. Feyenoord 12 from 15.

Telstar3 pts

Drawvs ADO Den Haag2:2
Lossvs AZ0:1
Drawvs Heerenveen0:0
Lossvs FC Twente0:1
Drawvs Cambuur2:2

: 0.80
: 1.20
: 40%
: 40%

Feyenoord12 pts

Winvs Como3:2
Winvs AZ2:0
Winvs FC Utrecht5:0
Winvs PEC Zwolle7:0
Lossvs Barcelona1:5

: 3.60
: 1.40
: 80%
: 40%

Lineups · Expected

Telstar
No absences reported.

Feyenoord
OutThomas BeelenBroken leg
OutJordan BosKnee injury
OutBart NieuwkoopKnee injury
OutJakub ModerKnee injury
OutReiss NelsonMuscle injury
OutGijs SmalAnkle injury
OutShaqueel van Persie

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2

Our positionWe agree on a Feyenoord win and expect Telstar to score: they found the net twice in each of their last two home games.

Scenario & score

Feyenoord control the ball, Telstar wait for the counter. Over their last five matches Feyenoord averaged 6.8 shots on target against 4.2, while Telstar managed only 2.2 and allowed 5.4. Expect Feyenoord to sit in Telstar's half and break them down through Hadj Moussa, Zechiel and Ferri, who have five league goals each. Our pick wins with any Feyenoord win, by one goal or by five; it loses with a draw or a Telstar win. 1:2 is our main score. 1:1 is the danger if a rotated Feyenoord switch off, as in the 2:2 at home to ADO Den Haag in August.

Arguing against ourselves

01Feyenoord played on Wednesday and travel to Real Betis on Tuesday: three days of rest against Telstar's six, and a rotated eleven is likely.
02Telstar scored twice in each of their last two home games, against Cambuur and ADO Den Haag.
03Feyenoord dropped points twice at home this season, 2:2 against Go Ahead Eagles and ADO Den Haag.

Key factFeyenoord have won four in a row since the 1:5 at Barcelona, including 7:0 at PEC Zwolle, 5:0 against Utrecht and 2:0 against AZ. Telstar have three draws and two defeats in their last five, have scored seven league goals in eight rounds and conceded 11 in four home games.

Full match analysis