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Football · Norway · Eliteserien · Round 24 · Hamar

HamKamvsBodø/Glimt Hamarkameratene vs Bodø/Glimt · prediction

Score
0:2
Date
17 OCT
City
Hamar
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt?

Our HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt prediction is a Bodø/Glimt win, most likely 3:1. Kjetil Knutsen's side are second in the Eliteserien on 53 points, level with leaders Viking, and have won eight of their last ten games, including 1:0 against Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday. HamKam are eleventh on 26 points and have lost three of their last five. Bodø/Glimt are one leg of today's double with Feyenoord at Telstar.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:3
Our estimate
74–79%
Bodø/Glimt win · odds 1.21Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Bodø/Glimt win
Our bet
Double No. 108 · total odds 1.59
Leg odds
1.21

HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt at a glance

MatchHamarkameratene vs Bodø/Glimt
CompetitionEliteserien · Round 24
Kick-off17 OCT · 13:00 UK · 14:00 Hamar
VenueBriskeby, Hamar
Our pickBodø/Glimt win · 1.21 · Double No. 108 · total odds 1.59
Our estimate74–79%
Predicted score1:3
Main reasonWe expect Bodø/Glimt to win in Hamar.
No. 04 · Form

HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt: recent form

HamKam 4 from 15. Bodø/Glimt 9 from 15.

HamKam4 pts
  • Winvs Start4:2
  • Lossvs Tromsø2:3
  • Lossvs Molde1:5
  • Lossvs Rosenborg0:4
  • Drawvs Kristiansund2:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
3.20
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Bodø/Glimt9 pts
  • Winvs Borussia Dortmund1:0
  • Winvs Kristiansund3:1
  • Lossvs Brann1:2
  • Winvs Sandefjord3:2
  • Lossvs Bayern Munich0:5
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Key factBodø/Glimt are 8-0-2 over their last ten games with 23 goals scored, and take 58% of the shots on target in their matches. HamKam won 4:2 at Start last Sunday, but before that lost 2:3 at Tromsø, 1:5 at home to Molde and 0:4 at Rosenborg: 16 goals conceded in five games, and only 34% of the shots on target over ten. HamKam had six days of rest, Bodø/Glimt three.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt team news

Bodø/Glimt without Håkon Evjen, August Mikkelsen and Magnus Bech Riisnæs; HamKam without Anders Trondsen.

HamKam
  • OutAnders TrondsenThigh injury
  • OutMarkus JohnsgaardKnee injury
Bodø/Glimt
  • OutHåkon EvjenKnee injury
  • OutAugust MikkelsenGroin injury
  • OutMagnus Bech RiisnæsKnee injury
  • OutIsak SjongKnock
TacticsBodø/Glimt travel without three attacking players: Håkon Evjen (knee), August Mikkelsen (groin) and Magnus Bech Riisnæs (knee), and back-up goalkeeper Isak Sjong is listed with a knock. Knutsen also has Napoli away on Tuesday in the Champions League, three days after this game, so some rotation is likely. HamKam are missing midfielder Anders Trondsen (thigh) and Markus Johnsgaard (knee). Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3

Who do others back in HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt?

Two of the three previews we read expect a Bodø/Glimt win, both by 4:1; one expects HamKam to keep it close.

SourcePickVersus us
FootballPredictions.aiBodø/Glimt 4:1Same side
Statistical preview siteBodø/Glimt 4:1Same side
SportsGamblerHamKam +1.75 Asian handicapOther side
Our positionWe side with the majority on the winner but not on the margin: with rotation before Napoli, we take the straight win and give no handicap.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt predicted score

Bodø/Glimt on the ball, HamKam waiting for a mistake.

Bodø/Glimt create far more than they allow: about 18 shots a game against 12 over their last ten. HamKam concede more than three goals a game in their last five and rarely control the ball against the top sides. 1:3 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: a rotated Bodø/Glimt side with tired legs after Dortmund, and HamKam scoring first at Briskeby. Any Bodø/Glimt win settles our pick, 1:0 included; a draw or a HamKam win loses it.

Predicted score
1:3
Alternative
1:1
Your score
HAM1
BOD3
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt pick: Bodø/Glimt win

Bodø/Glimt win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We expect Bodø/Glimt to win in Hamar. They are level on points with Viking at the top and every dropped point matters in the title race, while HamKam have conceded 16 goals in their last five games. Over ten games Bodø/Glimt take 58% of the shots on target in their matches; HamKam take 34%. Even with rotation before Napoli, the gap in quality is large enough for a straight win.

Our probability74–79%
Our pickBodø/Glimt win
Leg odds1.21
Main scenario1:3
Our scenario
1:3alternative 1:1

What would change our mind An official Bodø/Glimt line-up with most of the side that beat Dortmund on the bench: then this is a reserve team and we drop the leg.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
HamKam win10.479.6%
Draw7.0714.1%
Bodø/Glimt win1.2182.6%

Odds snapshot 17 OCT 11:03 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Bodø/Glimt played Dortmund on Wednesday and go to Napoli on Tuesday, so Knutsen may rest several starters.
  2. HamKam had three more days of rest.
  3. Evjen, Mikkelsen and Riisnæs are all out, which thins Bodø/Glimt's attack.
  4. Bodø/Glimt lost 1:2 at Brann in their last away league game.
  5. HamKam scored four goals at Start last Sunday.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Bodø/Glimt win is one leg of our double No. 108. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.59, 2.00 units.

Leg 1 · this match
Bodø/Glimt win @ 1.21
Leg 2
Feyenoord win @ 1.31
Total odds
1.59 · 2.00 units
Published
17 OCT 10:53
Open double No. 108 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Bodø/Glimt win at 1.21
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:3Bet at 1.21
Happened
0:2Bodø/Glimt win
Won

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.