Double · No. 107 · 17 OCTWon
Tampa Bay vs Vancouver + Vegas vs Pittsburgh
- 01Tampa Bay vs VancouverTampa Bay win · incl. OT1.25 · Won
- 02Vegas vs PittsburghVegas win · incl. OT1.40 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.75
- Stake
- 1.00 unit
- P&L
- +0.75 units
- Our estimate
- 52–55%
Published 17 OCT 09:43
Odds: average of 9 popular bookmakers, 17 OCT 09:5318+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 9 popular bookmakers, 17 OCT 09:5318+Play responsibly
Why this betAn NHL double of two home favourites, overtime and shootout included. Tampa Bay host a Vancouver side that has lost five in a row and plays its sixth straight road game; Vegas host a Pittsburgh team on the second night of a back-to-back after a 2:5 loss in Denver and a 979 km flight, with Sergei Murashov (seven NHL starts) expected in goal.
Leg 1 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 17 OCT · 21:00 UK
Tampa Bay vs Vancouver
Tampa Bay win · incl. OT1.25Won
Why this pickTampa Bay have won all four home games this season; Vancouver have lost five in a row, play their sixth straight road game and face 32.4 shots a night. Last season Tampa Bay took 64.6% of the points to Vancouver's 35.4%, and DRatings gives Tampa Bay 76.6%. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the expected starter; any Tampa Bay win counts, overtime and the shootout included.
- Predicted score · alt 3:2
- 4:2
- Our estimate · Tampa Bay win · incl. OT
- 76–78%
Form · Tampa Bay 4-1 in their last 5. Vancouver 0-5.
Tampa Bay4-1
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Seattle4:3 OT
- Lossvs NY Rangers1:4
- Winvs NY Islanders5:3
- Winvs Minnesota3:2
- Winvs Philadelphia4:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.60
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Vancouver0-5
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Florida2:3 OT
- Lossvs NY Islanders2:3
- Lossvs NY Rangers2:6
- Lossvs New Jersey1:4
- Lossvs Carolina2:7
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 1.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 4.60
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Lineups · Expected
- Tampa Bay
- OutYanni GourdeHip surgery, injured non-roster list
- Vancouver
- OutThatcher DemkoHip surgery, injured reserve; return hoped for before Christmas
- OutJack ThompsonInjured non-roster list
- OutAkil ThomasInjured non-roster list
- OutMackenzie MacEachernInjured non-roster list
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2
Our positionWe agree: Tampa Bay win. With the margin removed, the line gives Tampa Bay about 76%; DRatings has 76.6% and we have 76 to 78%. Dimers had not posted Saturday's games when we checked. We take the win with overtime and the shootout included, because Tampa Bay needed overtime to beat Seattle on Thursday.
Scenario & score
Tampa Bay's shot count against a tired road team. 4:2 to Tampa Bay is our main score. Tampa Bay outshoot opponents 30.3 to 24.3 a game this season, and Vancouver's penalty kill has stopped only 60.0% of power plays, the weakest number on either side. Tampa Bay's own power play is the worry: 7.4% so far, after 20.7% last season. 3:2 to Tampa Bay after overtime is the alternative if Merilainen keeps his .925 form. Any Tampa Bay win, in regulation, overtime or a shootout, makes our pick; any Vancouver win beats it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Tampa Bay's power play has converted 7.4% this season.
- 02Vasilevskiy is at .886 in six starts; Merilainen is at .925 in four.
- 03Both Tampa Bay defeats were by three goals, 1:5 and 1:4 against the Rangers.
- 04Neither starting goalie is confirmed before the morning skate.
Key factTampa Bay are 5-2-0 and 4-0 at home: 3:1 over Washington, 4:1 over Philadelphia, 3:2 over Minnesota and 4:3 in overtime over Seattle on Thursday. Both defeats came in New York against the Rangers, 1:5 and 1:4. Vancouver are 2-6-1 and 0-5 on this road trip: 2:7 in Carolina, 1:4 in New Jersey, 2:6 against the Rangers, 2:3 against the Islanders and 2:3 in overtime in Florida on Thursday. They are outshot 32.4 to 21.9 a game.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 18 OCT · 03:00 UK
Vegas vs Pittsburgh
Vegas win · incl. OT1.40Won
Why this pickVegas are 7-2-0 with +1.56 goals a game and outshoot opponents 31.0 to 25.6. Pittsburgh are 1-4 in their last five and play the second night of a back-to-back after losing 2:5 in Denver, with Sergei Murashov (seven NHL starts) expected in goal. DRatings gives Vegas 64.7%, the softer leg of the two; Adin Hill is the expected Vegas starter.
- Predicted score · alt 3:2
- 4:2
- Our estimate · Vegas win · incl. OT
- 68–71%
Form · Vegas 4-1 in their last 5. Pittsburgh 1-4.
Vegas4-1
- Winvs Calgary6:2
- Winvs Nashville5:2
- Lossvs Minnesota2:4
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Los Angeles2:1 OT
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Toronto4:3 SO
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 80%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Pittsburgh1-4
- Lossvs Colorado2:5
- Lossvs Chicago3:5
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Dallas2:1 SO
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Columbus2:3 SO
- Lossvs Washington3:5
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- Vegas
- OutParker WotherspoonUpper body, week-to-week
- OutLukas CormierInjured reserve
- Pittsburgh
- OutEgor ChinakhovLower body, no timeline for a return
- OutTrevor van RiemsdykLower body, injured reserve
- OutRyan GravesOut indefinitely, injured reserve
- OutJustin BrazeauLower body, injured reserve
What others predict · Consensus 1 of 1
Our positionWe agree on the winner. With the margin removed, the line gives Vegas about 68%; DRatings is lower at 64.7%, and we have 68 to 71% because we add Pittsburgh's young goalie to a back-to-back the line already knows about. The Covers computer pick for this game was not visible and Dimers had not posted it, so DRatings is the only outside model. We take the win with overtime and the shootout included: two of Vegas' four home wins needed extra time.
Scenario & score
Rested Vegas against a visitor on its second night. 4:2 to Vegas is our main score. Vegas score 4.00 goals a game, take 31.0 shots and convert 25.7% of their power plays. Pittsburgh's penalty kill is good, 87.0%, so we expect most Vegas goals at five-on-five as Pittsburgh's legs go late in the game. 3:2 after overtime or a shootout is the alternative: Vegas already have two home wins that went beyond 60 minutes. Any Vegas win makes our pick; any Pittsburgh win beats it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01DRatings gives Vegas 64.7%, three points below the line.
- 02Murashov has saved .911 in three starts this season, better than Silovs (.875).
- 03Vegas play their fourth game in seven days and lost 3:4 at home to Anaheim.
- 04Neither starting goalie is confirmed before the morning skate.
Key factVegas have won four of their last five: 4:3 in a shootout over Toronto, 2:1 in overtime over Los Angeles, 2:4 in Minnesota, 5:2 in Nashville and 6:2 over Calgary on Thursday. At home they are 4-1, the one defeat 3:4 to Anaheim. Pittsburgh are 1-4 in their last five: 3:5 in Washington, a shootout loss in Columbus, a shootout win over Dallas, 3:5 in Chicago and 2:5 in Colorado on Friday night.
Full match analysis