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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Las Vegas
VegasvsPittsburgh Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins · hockey prediction
Score
6:2
Date · UK
18 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 17 OCT
City
Las Vegas
Status
Full time
VGK6:2PITFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Vegas vs Pittsburgh?
Our Golden Knights vs Penguins prediction: the Vegas Golden Knights beat the Pittsburgh Penguins at T-Mobile Arena, overtime and shootout included, and our main score is 4:2. Vegas are 7-2-0 with a goal difference of +1.56 a game. Pittsburgh play the second night of a back-to-back after a 2:5 defeat in Denver on Friday, and Sergei Murashov, with seven NHL starts, is expected in their goal. Adin Hill is the expected Vegas starter; neither goalie is confirmed yet.
- Predicted score · alt 3:2
- 4:2
- Our estimate
- 68–71%
- Market
- Vegas win · incl. OT
- Our bet
- Double No. 107 · total odds 1.75
- Leg odds
- 1.40
Vegas vs Pittsburgh at a glance
| Match | Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 18 OCT · 03:00 UK |
| Venue | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas |
| Our pick | Vegas win · incl. OT · 1.40 · Double No. 107 · total odds 1.75 |
| Our estimate | 68–71% |
| Predicted score | 4:2 |
| Main reason | Pittsburgh play their second game in two nights after a 2:5 loss in Denver and a 979 km flight, and they are 1-4 in their last five. |
No. 04 · Form
Vegas vs Pittsburgh: recent form
Vegas 4-1 in their last 5. Pittsburgh 1-4.
- Vegas
- Won 6:2 at home to Calgary on Thu 15 Oct · two days of rest · no travel · fourth game in seven days
- Pittsburgh
- Lost 2:5 in Colorado on Fri 16 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · 979 km flight from Denver, one time zone west · third road game in a row
Vegas4-1
- Winvs Calgary6:2
- Winvs Nashville5:2
- Lossvs Minnesota2:4
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Los Angeles2:1 OT
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Toronto4:3 SO
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 80%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Pittsburgh1-4
- Lossvs Colorado2:5
- Lossvs Chicago3:5
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Dallas2:1 SO
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Columbus2:3 SO
- Lossvs Washington3:5
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Key factVegas have won four of their last five: 4:3 in a shootout over Toronto, 2:1 in overtime over Los Angeles, 2:4 in Minnesota, 5:2 in Nashville and 6:2 over Calgary on Thursday. At home they are 4-1, the one defeat 3:4 to Anaheim. Pittsburgh are 1-4 in their last five: 3:5 in Washington, a shootout loss in Columbus, a shootout win over Dallas, 3:5 in Chicago and 2:5 in Colorado on Friday night.
| Attack & defence | VGK | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 7-2-0 | 3-4-1 |
| Points % | 77.8% | 43.8% |
| Goal difference per game | +1.56 | 0.00 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 4.00 | 3.38 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 2.44 | 3.38 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 31.0 | 28.8 |
| Shots against | 25.6 | 28.8 |
| Special teams | VGK | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 25.7% | 14.8% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 77.3% | 87.0% |
| Last season | VGK | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 39-26-17 | 41-25-16 |
| Points % | 57.9% | 59.8% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.18 | +0.30 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 29.0 | 28.6 |
| Shots against | 24.4 | 27.4 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 24.6% | 24.1% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 81.4% | 81.4% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Vegas vs Pittsburgh: starting goalies and team news
Hill and Murashov expected; Pittsburgh on the second night of a back-to-back.
VegasExpected
Adin Hill- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .903
- Starts
- 3
- SV% last season
- .871
- SV% 3 seasons
- .895
- NHL career starts
- 203
PittsburghExpected
Sergei Murashov- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .911
- Starts
- 3
- SV% last season
- .897
- NHL career starts
- 7
Vegas
- OutParker WotherspoonUpper body, week-to-week
- OutLukas CormierInjured reserve
Pittsburgh
- OutEgor ChinakhovLower body, no timeline for a return
- OutTrevor van RiemsdykLower body, injured reserve
- OutRyan GravesOut indefinitely, injured reserve
- OutJustin BrazeauLower body, injured reserve
TacticsDaily Faceoff projects Adin Hill for Vegas and Sergei Murashov for Pittsburgh, both unconfirmed when we checked at 06:10 UTC on 17 October. Carter Hart started on Thursday and has the busier season (six starts, .911), but over three seasons the two are level, Hart .896 and Hill .895, so either works for Vegas. Arturs Silovs started in Denver on Friday, which points to Murashov: seven NHL starts and .911 in three this season. Pittsburgh have Egor Chinakhov out with a lower-body injury and no timeline (Josh Yohe of The Athletic, via ESPN), and Trevor van Riemsdyk, Ryan Graves and Justin Brazeau on injured reserve. Vegas are without Parker Wotherspoon (upper body, week-to-week) and Lukas Cormier (injured reserve). Injury news comes from ESPN's NHL injury report and the Covers matchup page.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Vegas vs Pittsburgh?
The one model we found backs Vegas, a little below the line.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Vegas 64.7%, projected 3.85 to 2.66 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner. With the margin removed, the line gives Vegas about 68%; DRatings is lower at 64.7%, and we have 68 to 71% because we add Pittsburgh's young goalie to a back-to-back the line already knows about. The Covers computer pick for this game was not visible and Dimers had not posted it, so DRatings is the only outside model. We take the win with overtime and the shootout included: two of Vegas' four home wins needed extra time.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Vegas vs Pittsburgh predicted score
Rested Vegas against a visitor on its second night.
4:2 to Vegas is our main score. Vegas score 4.00 goals a game, take 31.0 shots and convert 25.7% of their power plays. Pittsburgh's penalty kill is good, 87.0%, so we expect most Vegas goals at five-on-five as Pittsburgh's legs go late in the game. 3:2 after overtime or a shootout is the alternative: Vegas already have two home wins that went beyond 60 minutes. Any Vegas win makes our pick; any Pittsburgh win beats it.
- Predicted score
- 4:2
- Alternative
- 3:2
Your score
VGK
PIT
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Vegas vs Pittsburgh pick: Vegas win · incl. OT
Vegas win · incl. OT: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Pittsburgh play their second game in two nights after a 2:5 loss in Denver and a 979 km flight, and they are 1-4 in their last five. Murashov, with seven NHL starts, is expected in their goal. Vegas are 7-2-0 with +1.56 goals a game and outshoot opponents 31.0 to 25.6. Any Vegas win counts, overtime and the shootout included.
Our probability68–71%
Our pickVegas win · incl. OT
Leg odds1.40
Main scenario4:2
- Our scenario
- 4:2alternative 3:2
What would change our mind A Vegas starter called up from the AHL, with fewer than ten NHL starts, instead of Hill or Hart would make us keep this game out of any bet.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Vegas win · incl. OT | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Pittsburgh win · incl. OT | 2.89 | 34.6% |
| Vegas win in 60 min | 1.67 | 59.9% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.60 | 21.7% |
| Pittsburgh win in 60 min | 4.11 | 24.3% |
| Pittsburgh +1.5 | 1.81 | 55.2% |
| Over 6.5 goals | 1.92 | 52.1% |
| Under 6.5 goals | 1.86 | 53.8% |
Odds snapshot 17 OCT 09:53 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- DRatings gives Vegas 64.7%, three points below the line.
- Murashov has saved .911 in three starts this season, better than Silovs (.875).
- Vegas play their fourth game in seven days and lost 3:4 at home to Anaheim.
- Neither starting goalie is confirmed before the morning skate.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Vegas win · incl. OT is one leg of our double No. 107. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.75, 1.00 unit.
Open double No. 107 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Vegas win · incl. OT; a bet waits for the goalie confirmation
- Prediction updated · now a bet: Vegas win · incl. OT at 1.40, a leg of our NHL double with Tampa Bay (expected starters in goal)
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 4:2Bet at 1.40
- Happened
- 6:2Vegas win
Won
Read next
- Earlier gameGolden Knights vs Flames prediction, 15 October
- PittsburghAvalanche vs Penguins prediction, 16 October
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.