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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Tampa

Tampa BayvsVancouver Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vancouver Canucks · hockey prediction

Score
4:2
Date · UK
17 OCT
Local time
16:00 · 17 OCT
City
Tampa
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Tampa Bay vs Vancouver?

Our Lightning vs Canucks prediction: the Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Vancouver Canucks at Benchmark International Arena, overtime and shootout included, and our main score is 4:2. Tampa Bay have won all four home games this season; Vancouver have lost five in a row and play their sixth straight road game. Andrei Vasilevskiy and Leevi Merilainen are the expected goalies, not yet confirmed.

Predicted score · alt 3:2
4:2
Our estimate
76–78%
Tampa Bay win · incl. OT · odds 1.25Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Tampa Bay win · incl. OT
Our bet
Double No. 107 · total odds 1.75
Leg odds
1.25

Tampa Bay vs Vancouver at a glance

MatchTampa Bay Lightning vs Vancouver Canucks
CompetitionNHL · Regular season
Kick-off17 OCT · 21:00 UK
VenueBenchmark International Arena, Tampa
Our pickTampa Bay win · incl. OT · 1.25 · Double No. 107 · total odds 1.75
Our estimate76–78%
Predicted score4:2
Main reasonVancouver arrive at the low point of their season: five straight defeats, a sixth road game in a row and 32.4 shots a night against them.
No. 04 · Form

Tampa Bay vs Vancouver: recent form

Tampa Bay 4-1 in their last 5. Vancouver 0-5.

Tampa Bay
Won 4:3 in overtime at home to Seattle on Thu 15 Oct · two days of rest · no travel · second home game in a row
Vancouver
Lost 2:3 in overtime in Florida on Thu 15 Oct · two days of rest · 289 km from Sunrise · sixth road game in a row, fourth game in seven days
Tampa Bay4-1
  • Win in overtime or shootoutvs Seattle4:3 OT
  • Lossvs NY Rangers1:4
  • Winvs NY Islanders5:3
  • Winvs Minnesota3:2
  • Winvs Philadelphia4:1
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.40
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
2.60
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
40%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
20%
Vancouver0-5
  • Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Florida2:3 OT
  • Lossvs NY Islanders2:3
  • Lossvs NY Rangers2:6
  • Lossvs New Jersey1:4
  • Lossvs Carolina2:7
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
1.80
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
4.60
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
40%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
20%
Key factTampa Bay are 5-2-0 and 4-0 at home: 3:1 over Washington, 4:1 over Philadelphia, 3:2 over Minnesota and 4:3 in overtime over Seattle on Thursday. Both defeats came in New York against the Rangers, 1:5 and 1:4. Vancouver are 2-6-1 and 0-5 on this road trip: 2:7 in Carolina, 1:4 in New Jersey, 2:6 against the Rangers, 2:3 against the Islanders and 2:3 in overtime in Florida on Thursday. They are outshot 32.4 to 21.9 a game.
Attack & defenceTBLVAN
Wins and losses.5-2-02-6-1
Points %71.4%27.8%
Goal difference per game+0.29-1.44
Goals scored per game, overtime included.3.003.11
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.2.714.56
Shots on goal per game.30.321.9
Shots against24.332.4
Special teamsTBLVAN
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.7.4%17.9%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.77.8%60.0%
Last seasonTBLVAN
Wins and losses.50-26-625-49-8
Points %64.6%35.4%
Goal difference per game+0.72-1.22
Shots on goal per game.28.126.0
Shots against26.729.8
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.20.7%21.8%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.82.6%71.5%

NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

Tampa Bay vs Vancouver: starting goalies and team news

Vasilevskiy and Merilainen expected; confirmation comes at the morning skate.

Tampa BayExpected
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.886
Starts
6
SV% last season
.912
SV% 3 seasons
.916
NHL career starts
594
Daily Faceoff projection, not confirmed when checked at 06:10 UTC on 17 Oct; the team confirms after the morning skate
VancouverExpected
Leevi Merilainen
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.925
Starts
4
SV% last season
.860
SV% 3 seasons
.893
NHL career starts
36
Daily Faceoff projection, not confirmed when checked at 06:10 UTC on 17 Oct; the team confirms after the morning skate
Tampa Bay
  • OutYanni GourdeHip surgery, injured non-roster list
Vancouver
  • OutThatcher DemkoHip surgery, injured reserve; return hoped for before Christmas
  • OutJack ThompsonInjured non-roster list
  • OutAkil ThomasInjured non-roster list
  • OutMackenzie MacEachernInjured non-roster list
TacticsDaily Faceoff projects Andrei Vasilevskiy for Tampa Bay and Leevi Merilainen for Vancouver, both unconfirmed when we checked at 06:10 UTC on 17 October; teams name their starters after the morning skate. Vasilevskiy has 594 NHL starts and has saved .916 over three seasons, though he is at .886 in six starts this October. Merilainen has been Vancouver's best goalie so far, .925 in four starts, while Kevin Lankinen (.786) has sat the last two games and Thatcher Demko is on injured reserve after hip surgery, with a return hoped for before Christmas. Tampa Bay are without Yanni Gourde (hip surgery, injured non-roster list). Vancouver also list Jack Thompson, Akil Thomas and Mackenzie MacEachern on the injured non-roster list. Injury news comes from ESPN's NHL injury report on the morning of 17 October; we did not find a second source.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Tampa Bay vs Vancouver?

Both computer models we found back Tampa Bay.

SourcePickVersus us
DRatingsTampa Bay 76.6%, projected 4.09 to 2.26Same side
Covers computer pickTampa Bay, projected 4.40 to 2.34Same side
Our positionWe agree: Tampa Bay win. With the margin removed, the line gives Tampa Bay about 76%; DRatings has 76.6% and we have 76 to 78%. Dimers had not posted Saturday's games when we checked. We take the win with overtime and the shootout included, because Tampa Bay needed overtime to beat Seattle on Thursday.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Tampa Bay vs Vancouver predicted score

Tampa Bay's shot count against a tired road team.

4:2 to Tampa Bay is our main score. Tampa Bay outshoot opponents 30.3 to 24.3 a game this season, and Vancouver's penalty kill has stopped only 60.0% of power plays, the weakest number on either side. Tampa Bay's own power play is the worry: 7.4% so far, after 20.7% last season. 3:2 to Tampa Bay after overtime is the alternative if Merilainen keeps his .925 form. Any Tampa Bay win, in regulation, overtime or a shootout, makes our pick; any Vancouver win beats it.

Predicted score
4:2
Alternative
3:2
Your score
TBL4
VAN2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Tampa Bay vs Vancouver pick: Tampa Bay win · incl. OT

Tampa Bay win · incl. OT: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Vancouver arrive at the low point of their season: five straight defeats, a sixth road game in a row and 32.4 shots a night against them. Tampa Bay have won all four home games, and last season they took 64.6% of the points to Vancouver's 35.4%. DRatings gives Tampa Bay 76.6%, close to the line. With overtime and the shootout included, any Tampa Bay win counts.

Our probability76–78%
Our pickTampa Bay win · incl. OT
Leg odds1.25
Main scenario4:2
Our scenario
4:2alternative 3:2

What would change our mind Tampa Bay starting a goalie other than Andrei Vasilevskiy would make us keep this game out of any bet.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Tampa Bay win · incl. OT1.2580%
Vancouver win · incl. OT3.9725.2%
Tampa Bay win in 60 min1.4469.4%
Draw in 60 min5.3518.7%
Vancouver win in 60 min5.6617.7%
Vancouver +1.52.2145.2%
Over 6.5 goals2.1047.6%
Under 6.5 goals1.7258.1%

Odds snapshot 17 OCT 09:53 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Tampa Bay's power play has converted 7.4% this season.
  2. Vasilevskiy is at .886 in six starts; Merilainen is at .925 in four.
  3. Both Tampa Bay defeats were by three goals, 1:5 and 1:4 against the Rangers.
  4. Neither starting goalie is confirmed before the morning skate.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Tampa Bay win · incl. OT is one leg of our double No. 107. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.75, 1.00 unit.

Leg 1 · this match
Tampa Bay win · incl. OT @ 1.25
Leg 2
Vegas win · incl. OT @ 1.40
Total odds
1.75 · 1.00 unit
Published
17 OCT 09:43
Open double No. 107 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · our pick Tampa Bay win · incl. OT; a bet waits for the goalie confirmation
  2. Prediction updated · now a bet: Tampa Bay win · incl. OT at 1.25, a leg of our NHL double with Vegas (expected starters in goal)
No. 12 · After the match
We said
4:2Bet at 1.25
Happened
4:2Tampa Bay win
Won

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.