Double: Man City vs Ipswich + ADO vs PSV

Why this betTwo clear favourites against sides from the wrong end of their tables. Manchester City lead the Premier League with six wins from six and host an Ipswich team without a clean sheet in 25 Premier League games; PSV visit an ADO Den Haag side still without a league win. Both play in the Champions League on Tuesday, so rotation is the shared risk.

Leg 1 · Football · England · Premier League · 17 OCT · 15:00 UK

Man City vs Ipswich

Man City win1.23Won

Why this pickCity top the table with 18 points from six games and 16 goals, and create 2.10 expected goals a game against an Ipswich defence that allows 2.01. Ipswich have not kept a clean sheet in 25 Premier League games, and City have lost only two of their last 22 home league games (Sports Mole). The 2:4 to PSG and AEK on Tuesday bring rotation risk, but any City win takes the leg.

Predicted score · alt 2:0: 3:1
Our estimate · Man City win: 76–80%

Form · Man City 12 from 15. Ipswich Town 6 from 15.

Man City12 pts

Lossvs Paris Saint-Germain2:4
Winvs Liverpool3:0
Winvs Sunderland5:3
Winvs Norwich City5:0
Winvs Manchester United1:0

: 3.20
: 1.40
: 80%
: 40%

Ipswich Town6 pts

Winvs Fulham2:1
Lossvs Everton0:1
Lossvs Arsenal2:4
Winvs Crystal Palace3:2
Lossvs Liverpool0:2

: 1.40
: 2.00
: 60%
: 60%

Lineups · Expected

Man City
No absences reported.

Ipswich Town
DoubtAbdul FatawuSources differ on his suspension
DoubtJack TaylorFitness

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2

Our positionWe agree on the winner. We expect Ipswich to score once, because they found the net at Crystal Palace and twice against Arsenal, and City conceded four on Wednesday.

Scenario & score

City take the ball, Ipswich look for one moment. City should have most of the ball and push Ipswich back, as they have done in every home league game this season. Ipswich are dangerous on the break through Jack Clarke and can score, but they have conceded in 25 Premier League games in a row. 3:1 is our main score; 2:0 is the alternative if Maresca rotates for Tuesday and City manage the game. The pick wins with any City win and loses with a draw or an Ipswich win.

Arguing against ourselves

01City have only three days of rest after the PSG defeat, while Ipswich have had a full week.
02AEK Athens come to the Etihad on Tuesday, and Maresca has said Haaland will need a rest soon.
03City's 18 points are about six more than their chances deserve by Understat's expected points, so the table flatters them a little.

Key factCity have won all six league games, scoring 16 and conceding 5, and won eight in a row in all competitions before Wednesday's 2:4 home defeat to PSG. Before that came 3:0 at Liverpool, 5:3 against Sunderland, 5:0 against Norwich in the cup and 1:0 at Manchester United. Ipswich have three wins and three defeats in the league, 9 goals scored and 12 conceded; their last five were 2:1 against Fulham, 0:1 at Everton, 2:4 against Arsenal in the cup, 3:2 at Crystal Palace and 0:2 against Liverpool. Understat has City creating 2.10 expected goals a game and Ipswich allowing 2.01.

Full match analysis

Leg 2 · Football · Netherlands · Eredivisie · 17 OCT · 15:30 UK

ADO vs PSV

PSV win1.26Lost

Why this pickPSV have 19 points from eight rounds, ADO three and no league win since promotion; ADO concede almost seven shots on target a game and miss Hokke through suspension. PSV play Porto on Tuesday and several starters may rest, but their bench is stronger than ADO's first eleven. Our score is 1:3.

Predicted score · alt 1:1: 1:3
Our estimate · PSV win: 73–77%

Form · ADO Den Haag 3 from 15. PSV 7 from 15.

ADO Den Haag3 pts

Drawvs Telstar2:2
Drawvs Cambuur1:1
Lossvs FC Twente0:2
Lossvs Fortuna Sittard2:3
Drawvs Feyenoord2:2

: 1.40
: 2.00
: 60%
: 80%

PSV7 pts

Lossvs RB Leipzig0:1
Winvs Heerenveen2:0
Lossvs FC Twente2:3
Winvs Sparta Rotterdam4:1
Drawvs Shakhtar Donetsk1:1

: 1.80
: 1.20
: 40%
: 60%

Lineups · Expected

ADO Den Haag
OutMilan HokkeSuspended
OutLuka ReischlGroin injury
OutCameron PeupionKnee injury

PSV
OutJerdy SchoutenKnee injury
OutPaul WannerFoot injury
OutSami OuaissaHamstring injury
OutAlassane PléaAfter surgery
OutKiliann SildilliaAfter surgery
OutRicardo Pepi
OutSam Lammers
OutAdamo Nagalo

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2

Our positionWe agree on a PSV win but stop at the result: ADO score in most games, so we do not want to need a big margin.

Scenario & score

PSV keep the ball, ADO hope for a set piece or a counter. Over their last ten matches PSV averaged 6.8 shots on target against 4.4, while ADO managed 4.7 and allowed 6.8; in the last five ADO faced 20.6 shots a game. Expect PSV to camp in ADO's half and to break them down through Perisic, Til and Mijnans even with a changed back line. ADO have scored in eight of their last ten games, so a goal for them is likely. Our pick wins with any PSV win, by one goal or by five; it loses with a draw or an ADO win. 1:3 is our main score. 1:1 is the danger if a rotated PSV switch off with Porto in mind.

Arguing against ourselves

01PSV play at Porto on Tuesday and come off a Champions League defeat in Leipzig, so several regulars may start on the bench.
02PSV lost 2:3 at FC Twente and drew 2:2 with Fortuna Sittard; they concede when the game opens up.
03ADO drew 2:2 at Feyenoord in August and have scored in eight of their last ten games, home and away.

Key factADO have three draws and five defeats in eight league games, with nine goals scored and 19 conceded, the 1:4 at home to Groningen among them. PSV have won six of their eight league games, including 3:1 at Ajax, and their only league defeat came 2:3 at FC Twente.

Full match analysis