Feyenoord's unbeaten leaders took their row to the dressing room. PSV are next
Our take The row is noise. Eight goals in three games is not
Football · Netherlands · Eredivisie · Matchday 9 · The Hague
ADO Den HaagvsPSV ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven · prediction
Score
2:1
Date
17 OCT
City
The Hague
Status
Full time
ADO2:1PSVFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win ADO Den Haag vs PSV?
PSV are second in the Eredivisie on 19 points with 26 goals in eight rounds; ADO Den Haag are 17th on three points and are still looking for their first win since promotion. PSV travel to Porto in the Champions League on Tuesday and will rotate, but we back an away win in The Hague, most likely 1:3.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:3
- Our estimate
- 73–77%
- Market
- PSV win
- Our bet
- Double No. 109 · total odds 1.55
- Leg odds
- 1.26
ADO Den Haag vs PSV at a glance
| Match | ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|
| Competition | Eredivisie · Matchday 9 |
| Kick-off | 17 OCT · 15:30 UK · 16:30 The Hague |
| Venue | WerkTalent Stadion, The Hague |
| Our pick | PSV win · 1.26 · Double No. 109 · total odds 1.55 |
| Our estimate | 73–77% |
| Predicted score | 1:3 |
| Main reason | Our editorial team expects PSV to win in The Hague. |
No. 04 · Form
ADO Den Haag vs PSV: recent form
ADO Den Haag 3 from 15. PSV 7 from 15.
ADO Den Haag3 pts
- Drawvs Telstar2:2
- Drawvs Cambuur1:1
- Lossvs FC Twente0:2
- Lossvs Fortuna Sittard2:3
- Drawvs Feyenoord2:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
PSV7 pts
- Lossvs RB Leipzig0:1
- Winvs Heerenveen2:0
- Lossvs FC Twente2:3
- Winvs Sparta Rotterdam4:1
- Drawvs Shakhtar Donetsk1:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factADO have three draws and five defeats in eight league games, with nine goals scored and 19 conceded, the 1:4 at home to Groningen among them. PSV have won six of their eight league games, including 3:1 at Ajax, and their only league defeat came 2:3 at FC Twente.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
ADO Den Haag vs PSV team news
ADO without the suspended Hokke, Reischl and Peupion; PSV rest a few starters before Porto.
ADO Den Haag
- OutMilan HokkeSuspended
- OutLuka ReischlGroin injury
- OutCameron PeupionKnee injury
PSV
- OutJerdy SchoutenKnee injury
- OutPaul WannerFoot injury
- OutSami OuaissaHamstring injury
- OutAlassane PléaAfter surgery
- OutKiliann SildilliaAfter surgery
- OutRicardo Pepi
- OutSam Lammers
- OutAdamo Nagalo
TacticsRobin Peter loses Milan Hokke to a ban after his red card at Telstar, and Luka Reischl (groin) and Cameron Peupion (knee) are injured, so Yannick Eduardo and Evan Rottier are expected to lead the line. Peter Bosz has a long injury list, with Jerdy Schouten, Paul Wanner, Sami Ouaissa and Ricardo Pepi among those missing, and Dutch previews expect him to rest some of Geertruida, Obispo, Sano and Ruben van Bommel. Kovar, Dest, Til, Mijnans and Perisic are still expected to start.
In the news
Bednarek applauds Porto's boos. Eight from eight in Portugal, zero in Europe
Our take Porto lose Europe in both boxes, not the stands
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in ADO Den Haag vs PSV?
Both previews we read pick a PSV win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | ADO Den Haag 1:3 PSV | Same side |
| SportsGambler | PSV −2 Asian handicap | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on a PSV win but stop at the result: ADO score in most games, so we do not want to need a big margin.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
ADO Den Haag vs PSV predicted score
PSV keep the ball, ADO hope for a set piece or a counter.
Over their last ten matches PSV averaged 6.8 shots on target against 4.4, while ADO managed 4.7 and allowed 6.8; in the last five ADO faced 20.6 shots a game. Expect PSV to camp in ADO's half and to break them down through Perisic, Til and Mijnans even with a changed back line. ADO have scored in eight of their last ten games, so a goal for them is likely. Our pick wins with any PSV win, by one goal or by five; it loses with a draw or an ADO win. 1:3 is our main score. 1:1 is the danger if a rotated PSV switch off with Porto in mind.
- Predicted score
- 1:3
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
ADO
PSV
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our ADO Den Haag vs PSV pick: PSV win
PSV win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Our editorial team expects PSV to win in The Hague. They have 19 points from eight rounds, ADO have three, and PSV have scored almost three times as many goals. ADO have no win in the league yet and concede almost seven shots on target a game. Even with five or six changes, PSV's bench carries more quality than ADO's first eleven, and ADO miss Hokke through suspension.
Our probability73–77%
Our pickPSV win
Leg odds1.26
Main scenario1:3
- Our scenario
- 1:3alternative 1:1
What would change our mind A PSV line-up with most of the regular attack on the bench to save legs for Porto, or another late injury in a defence that is already thin.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 8.36 | 12% |
| Draw | 6.55 | 15.3% |
| PSV win | 1.26 | 79.4% |
| PSV or draw | 1.05 | 95.2% |
Odds snapshot 17 OCT 11:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- PSV play at Porto on Tuesday and come off a Champions League defeat in Leipzig, so several regulars may start on the bench.
- PSV lost 2:3 at FC Twente and drew 2:2 with Fortuna Sittard; they concede when the game opens up.
- ADO drew 2:2 at Feyenoord in August and have scored in eight of their last ten games, home and away.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
PSV win is one leg of our double No. 109. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.55, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 109 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · PSV win at 1.26
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:3Bet at 1.26
- Happened
- 2:1ADO Den Haag win
Lost
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.