Report: PSG had a deal and a voice note from Cherki. On Wednesday he faces them for City
Our take Cherki was bad luck. Bouaddi was a choice
Football · England · Premier League · Matchday 7 · Manchester
Man CityvsIpswich Town Manchester City vs Ipswich Town · prediction
Score
3:2
Date
17 OCT
City
Manchester
Status
Full time
MCI3:2IPSFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Man City vs Ipswich Town?
Our Manchester City vs Ipswich Town prediction is a City home win, most likely 3:1 at the Etihad on Saturday at 15:00 UK. Enzo Maresca's side top the Premier League with six wins from six and 18 points, three clear of Arsenal. Gary O'Neil's Ipswich are 10th on 9 points, and Sports Mole notes they have not kept a clean sheet in their last 25 Premier League games. City lost 2:4 to PSG on Wednesday, so the question is how they respond, not whether they are the better side.
- Predicted score · alt 2:0
- 3:1
- Our estimate
- 76–80%
- Market
- Man City win
- Our bet
- Double No. 109 · total odds 1.55
- Leg odds
- 1.23
Man City vs Ipswich Town at a glance
| Match | Manchester City vs Ipswich Town |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League · Matchday 7 |
| Kick-off | 17 OCT · 15:00 UK · 15:00 Manchester |
| Venue | Etihad Stadium, Manchester |
| Our pick | Man City win · 1.23 · Double No. 109 · total odds 1.55 |
| Our estimate | 76–80% |
| Predicted score | 3:1 |
| Main reason | City are the stronger side at both ends: 16 goals in six league games against Ipswich's 9, and 2.10 expected goals a game against an Ipswich defence that allows 2.01. |
No. 04 · Form
Man City vs Ipswich Town: recent form
Man City 12 from 15. Ipswich Town 6 from 15.
Man City12 pts
- Lossvs Paris Saint-Germain2:4
- Winvs Liverpool3:0
- Winvs Sunderland5:3
- Winvs Norwich City5:0
- Winvs Manchester United1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Ipswich Town6 pts
- Winvs Fulham2:1
- Lossvs Everton0:1
- Lossvs Arsenal2:4
- Winvs Crystal Palace3:2
- Lossvs Liverpool0:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factCity have won all six league games, scoring 16 and conceding 5, and won eight in a row in all competitions before Wednesday's 2:4 home defeat to PSG. Before that came 3:0 at Liverpool, 5:3 against Sunderland, 5:0 against Norwich in the cup and 1:0 at Manchester United. Ipswich have three wins and three defeats in the league, 9 goals scored and 12 conceded; their last five were 2:1 against Fulham, 0:1 at Everton, 2:4 against Arsenal in the cup, 3:2 at Crystal Palace and 0:2 against Liverpool. Understat has City creating 2.10 expected goals a game and Ipswich allowing 2.01.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Man City vs Ipswich Town team news
City close to full strength; Fatawu's status is unclear for Ipswich.
Man City
No absences reported.
Ipswich Town
- DoubtAbdul FatawuSources differ on his suspension
- DoubtJack TaylorFitness
TacticsSports Mole reports no injuries for City and has Phil Foden available again after a three-match league ban, with Matheus Nunes likely at right-back and Erling Haaland expected to lead the line, although Maresca has said Haaland will need a rest soon. Its predicted side is Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guéhi, O'Reilly; Anderson, Fernández; Semenyo, Cherki, Doku; Haaland. City play AEK Athens at home in the Champions League on Tuesday, so some rotation is possible. For Ipswich, Sports Mole expects Christian Walton in goal and Exequiel Palacios in midfield, and says Abdul Fatawu is pushing for a recall after a one-match suspension, while another preview lists him as still suspended; Khel Now adds that Jack Taylor may miss out through fitness. No line-up had been confirmed when we published.
In the news
Haaland limped off in Porto: could he miss Manchester City’s trip to Anfield?
Our take Believe the minutes, wait for the scan
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Man City vs Ipswich Town?
Both previews we read expect a clear City win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Man City 4:0 Ipswich | Same side |
| Khel Now | Man City 4:1 Ipswich | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner. We expect Ipswich to score once, because they found the net at Crystal Palace and twice against Arsenal, and City conceded four on Wednesday.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Man City vs Ipswich Town predicted score
City take the ball, Ipswich look for one moment.
City should have most of the ball and push Ipswich back, as they have done in every home league game this season. Ipswich are dangerous on the break through Jack Clarke and can score, but they have conceded in 25 Premier League games in a row. 3:1 is our main score; 2:0 is the alternative if Maresca rotates for Tuesday and City manage the game. The pick wins with any City win and loses with a draw or an Ipswich win.
- Predicted score
- 3:1
- Alternative
- 2:0
Your score
MCI
IPS
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Man City vs Ipswich Town pick: Man City win
Man City win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
City are the stronger side at both ends: 16 goals in six league games against Ipswich's 9, and 2.10 expected goals a game against an Ipswich defence that allows 2.01. Ipswich have not kept a clean sheet in 25 Premier League games, and City have lost only two of their last 22 home league games, according to Sports Mole. A defeat to PSG does not change that gap, and Maresca will want a reaction at home before Tuesday. We need only a City win, by any score.
Our probability76–80%
Our pickMan City win
Leg odds1.23
Main scenario3:1
- Our scenario
- 3:1alternative 2:0
What would change our mind A City team sheet without Haaland and most of Wednesday's starters, with AEK Athens in mind.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 1.23 | 81.3% |
| Draw | 6.72 | 14.9% |
| Ipswich Town win | 10.69 | 9.4% |
Odds snapshot 17 OCT 10:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- City have only three days of rest after the PSG defeat, while Ipswich have had a full week.
- AEK Athens come to the Etihad on Tuesday, and Maresca has said Haaland will need a rest soon.
- City's 18 points are about six more than their chances deserve by Understat's expected points, so the table flatters them a little.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Man City win is one leg of our double No. 109. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.55, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 109 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Bet published · City win, one leg of a double
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:1Bet at 1.23
- Happened
- 3:2Man City win
Won
Read next
- Our betMan City + PSV double
- Champions LeagueMan City vs PSG prediction
- Premier LeagueNewcastle vs Aston Villa prediction
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.