Double · No. 112 · 18 OCTWon
Panetolikos vs Olympiacos + Real Madrid vs Sevilla
- 01Panetolikos vs OlympiacosOlympiacos win1.29 · Won
- 02Real Madrid vs SevillaReal Madrid win1.22 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.57
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- +1.14 units
- Our estimate
- 58–63%
Published 18 OCT 10:2818+Play responsibly
Why this betTwo favourites on Sunday. Olympiacos travel to a Panetolikos side that has lost three league games in a row, after four straight wins and a win in Marseille on Thursday; Real Madrid host Sevilla having won every home league game this season and the last five league meetings. Real play without the suspended Vinícius Júnior.
Leg 1 · Football · Greece · Super League · 18 OCT · 15:00 UK
Panetolikos vs Olympiacos
Olympiacos win1.29Won
Why this pickOlympiacos have won four in a row and conceded two goals in six league games; Panetolikos have lost their last three league games and scored once in them. Five players rested in Marseille come back fresh, so the rotation after Thursday's win costs little. Our score is 0:2.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 0:2
- Our estimate · Olympiacos win
- 66–70%
Form · Panetolikos 6 from 15. Olympiacos 12 from 15.
Panetolikos6 pts
- Lossvs Kifisia0:2
- Lossvs PAOK1:3
- Lossvs Panathinaikos0:3
- Winvs Levadiakos2:0
- Winvs Kalamata2:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 20%
Olympiacos12 pts
- Winvs Marseille1:0
- Winvs Panathinaikos1:0
- Winvs Levadiakos1:0
- Winvs Jagiellonia2:1
- Lossvs OFI0:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 20%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 20%
Lineups · Expected
- Panetolikos
- OutGaliatsosNot in the squad
- OutKojićNot in the squad
- OutKucherenkoNot in the squad
- OutSatsiasNot in the squad
- Olympiacos
- OutLeon BaileyNot in the squad again, still feeling discomfort
- OutManolis SaliakasSuspended
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2
Our positionWe agree on the winner and take the plain away win, with no handicap: Olympiacos keep winning by one goal, and any win is enough for us.
Scenario & score
Olympiacos keep the ball, Panetolikos wait for a mistake. Olympiacos should have most of the ball and most of the shots, as they have all autumn, against a home side that has conceded eight goals in its last three games. 0:2 is our main score, with the first goal before the break and the second late, when Panetolikos have to open up. 1:1 is the risk: a tired Olympiacos three days after Marseille, a slow first hour and a Panetolikos goal from a set piece. Any Olympiacos win settles this leg; a draw or a Panetolikos win beats it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Olympiacos play three days after the Europa League win in Marseille, while Panetolikos have had a week off, and Sparta Prague come to Piraeus on Thursday.
- 02Olympiacos score little: five goals in six league games, and their last four wins were all by one goal, so one mistake can turn a win into a draw.
- 03Bailey is out again and Saliakas is suspended, so the right side changes.
Key factOlympiacos have won four in a row, every one by a single goal: 2:1 against Jagiellonia, then 1:0 at Levadiakos, at home to Panathinaikos and in Marseille. They have conceded two goals in six league games, the fewest in the Super League. Panetolikos started with two 2:0 wins, then lost 0:3 at Panathinaikos, 1:3 at home to PAOK and 0:2 at Kifisia.
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Spain · LaLiga · 18 OCT · 20:00 UK
Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Real Madrid win1.22Won
Why this pickReal have won all four home league games this season, 13:2 on aggregate, and beaten Sevilla in each of the last five league meetings. Vinícius is suspended, but Sevilla also miss their striker Isaac Romero and two injured players. A Sevilla goal is likely, a Sevilla point is not; our score is 3:1.
- Predicted score · alt 2:2
- 3:1
- Our estimate · Real Madrid win
- 77–80%
Form · Real Madrid 12 from 15. Sevilla 8 from 15.
Real Madrid12 pts
- Winvs Roma4:3
- Winvs Villarreal1:0
- Lossvs Atlético1:2
- Winvs Elche3:2
- Winvs Rayo4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Sevilla8 pts
- Drawvs Levante3:3
- Lossvs Barcelona1:3
- Winvs Deportivo1:0
- Winvs Valencia1:0
- Drawvs Espanyol1:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Lineups · Expected
- Real Madrid
- OutVinícius JúniorSuspended, red card against Villarreal
- OutRaúl AsencioStress fracture, reported by three sources
- OutRodrygoKnee ligament injury, reported by three sources
- DoubtÉder MilitãoSources disagree: two previews say out, EFE says he trained
- DoubtFerland MendySources disagree: two previews say out, EFE says he trained
- Sevilla
- OutIsaac RomeroSuspended, booked twice against Levante
- OutMarcãoInjured, reported by two previews
- OutMiguel SierraInjured, reported by two previews
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2
Our positionBoth previews see 3:1, which is our main score too. The prices give Real about 77% after the margin is removed; we put the home win at 77–80%, no higher, because Vinícius is suspended and the defence is not settled.
Scenario & score
Real control the ball, Sevilla nick a goal. Real took 17.5 shots a game over their last ten and Sevilla allow 12.3, so we expect the hosts to have most of the ball and most of the chances. Kylian Mbappé leads the line without Vinícius beside him. Sevilla have scored in every league game this season, which is why our main score is 3:1 and the cautious one 2:2. Our pick, a Real Madrid win, wins with any Real win (3:1, 2:1, 2:0 and so on) and loses with a draw or a Sevilla win. Understat's 2.64 expected goals a game for Real and Sevilla's goal in every league game point that way.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Sevilla are unbeaten in four away league games (two wins, two draws) and scored in all of them.
- 02Real conceded eight goals in their last five games, including three at Roma, and Militão and Mendy may both miss out.
- 03The Champions League game with Leipzig comes three days later, so Real may slow down once they lead.
Key factReal are 4-0-1 in their last five, 13:8 on goals: 4:3 at Roma in the Champions League on Wednesday, 1:0 against Villarreal, 1:2 at Atlético, 3:2 at Elche and 4:1 against Rayo. Over their last ten games they hit the target 7.3 times a game and allow 4.9. Understat has them at 2.64 expected goals for and 1.04 against per league game. Sevilla are 2-2-1 in their last five, 7:7 on goals, with a 3:3 at Levante last Monday and a 1:3 home defeat to Barcelona. They have 14 points from eight games, four fewer than Real, but Understat rates their play at 10.5 expected points: their table position is about three and a half points better than their football.
Full match analysis