Sevilla demand LaLiga's raw footage after Güler's elbow got no close-up replay
Our take "Nothing hidden" needs the raw footage
Football · Spain · LaLiga · Matchday 9 · Madrid
Real MadridvsSevilla Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC · prediction
Score
4:1
Date
18 OCT
City
Madrid
Status
Full time
RMA4:1SEVFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction: a Real Madrid win at the Bernabéu on Sunday night, most likely 3:1. Real have won all four home league games this season with a 13:2 goal difference and beat Sevilla in each of the last five league meetings. They play without the suspended Vinícius Júnior, and Sevilla are unbeaten away from home with a goal in every league game, so we expect Sevilla to score but not to take a point. A Real Madrid win is one leg of our double with Olympiacos today.
- Predicted score · alt 2:2
- 3:1
- Our estimate
- 77–80%
- Market
- Real Madrid win
- Our bet
- Double No. 112 · total odds 1.57
- Leg odds
- 1.22
Real Madrid vs Sevilla at a glance
| Match | Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC |
|---|---|
| Competition | LaLiga · Matchday 9 |
| Kick-off | 18 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Madrid |
| Venue | Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid |
| Our pick | Real Madrid win · 1.22 · Double No. 112 · total odds 1.57 |
| Our estimate | 77–80% |
| Predicted score | 3:1 |
| Main reason | We think Real win this one. |
No. 04 · Form
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: recent form
Real Madrid 12 from 15. Sevilla 8 from 15.
Real Madrid12 pts
- Winvs Roma4:3
- Winvs Villarreal1:0
- Lossvs Atlético1:2
- Winvs Elche3:2
- Winvs Rayo4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Sevilla8 pts
- Drawvs Levante3:3
- Lossvs Barcelona1:3
- Winvs Deportivo1:0
- Winvs Valencia1:0
- Drawvs Espanyol1:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factReal are 4-0-1 in their last five, 13:8 on goals: 4:3 at Roma in the Champions League on Wednesday, 1:0 against Villarreal, 1:2 at Atlético, 3:2 at Elche and 4:1 against Rayo. Over their last ten games they hit the target 7.3 times a game and allow 4.9. Understat has them at 2.64 expected goals for and 1.04 against per league game. Sevilla are 2-2-1 in their last five, 7:7 on goals, with a 3:3 at Levante last Monday and a 1:3 home defeat to Barcelona. They have 14 points from eight games, four fewer than Real, but Understat rates their play at 10.5 expected points: their table position is about three and a half points better than their football.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Real Madrid vs Sevilla team news
Real without Vinícius, Asencio and Rodrygo; Sevilla without Isaac Romero.
Real Madrid
- OutVinícius JúniorSuspended, red card against Villarreal
- OutRaúl AsencioStress fracture, reported by three sources
- OutRodrygoKnee ligament injury, reported by three sources
- DoubtÉder MilitãoSources disagree: two previews say out, EFE says he trained
- DoubtFerland MendySources disagree: two previews say out, EFE says he trained
Sevilla
- OutIsaac RomeroSuspended, booked twice against Levante
- OutMarcãoInjured, reported by two previews
- OutMiguel SierraInjured, reported by two previews
TacticsVinícius Júnior serves a four-game league ban after his red card against Villarreal on 10 October, and Raúl Asencio (stress fracture) and Rodrygo (knee ligament) are out; Sports Mole, Eurosport and EFE agree on those three. The sources split on Éder Militão and Ferland Mendy: Sports Mole and Eurosport list both as absent, while EFE reported on Saturday that Asencio and Rodrygo are the only absentees. We treat both as doubts. Sevilla lose Isaac Romero to a suspension after two bookings at Levante, and both previews list Marcão and Miguel Sierra as injured. Real host RB Leipzig in the Champions League on Wednesday, three days later, so José Mourinho may manage minutes late in the game. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Report: Pérez eyes Deschamps if Mourinho fails, and the Clásico is the test
Our take The table will decide this before Pérez does
Mastantuono lost the ball 18 times at Genoa. Vanoli's answer: keep playing him
Our take This is protection, not a warning
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Both written previews we found pick a 3:1 home win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Real Madrid 3:1 Sevilla | Same side |
| Eurosport | Real Madrid 3:1 Sevilla | Same side |
Our positionBoth previews see 3:1, which is our main score too. The prices give Real about 77% after the margin is removed; we put the home win at 77–80%, no higher, because Vinícius is suspended and the defence is not settled.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Real Madrid vs Sevilla predicted score
Real control the ball, Sevilla nick a goal.
Real took 17.5 shots a game over their last ten and Sevilla allow 12.3, so we expect the hosts to have most of the ball and most of the chances. Kylian Mbappé leads the line without Vinícius beside him. Sevilla have scored in every league game this season, which is why our main score is 3:1 and the cautious one 2:2. Our pick, a Real Madrid win, wins with any Real win (3:1, 2:1, 2:0 and so on) and loses with a draw or a Sevilla win. Understat's 2.64 expected goals a game for Real and Sevilla's goal in every league game point that way.
- Predicted score
- 3:1
- Alternative
- 2:2
Your score
RMA
SEV
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Real Madrid vs Sevilla pick: Real Madrid win
Real Madrid win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Real win this one. They have won every home league game this season, 13:2 on aggregate, and have beaten Sevilla in each of the last five league meetings. Losing Vinícius takes some speed off the left wing, but Sevilla also arrive without their suspended striker Isaac Romero and two injured players, and their points flatter their play. A Sevilla goal is likely; a Sevilla point is not. Real have scored three or more in three of their last five, and eight of their last ten games went over 2.5 goals.
Our probability77–80%
Our pickReal Madrid win
Leg odds1.22
Main scenario3:1
- Our scenario
- 3:1alternative 2:2
What would change our mind A team sheet without Mbappé, or three or more regular starters on the bench before Leipzig: then we would expect a tighter game and drop the goals pick.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 1.22 | 82% |
| Draw | 6.59 | 15.2% |
| Sevilla win | 11.11 | 9% |
| Real Madrid or draw | 1.04 | 96.2% |
| Sevilla or draw | 4.14 | 24.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 35.7% |
Odds snapshot 18 OCT 06:20 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
How Sevilla could take a point.
- Sevilla are unbeaten in four away league games (two wins, two draws) and scored in all of them.
- Real conceded eight goals in their last five games, including three at Roma, and Militão and Mendy may both miss out.
- The Champions League game with Leipzig comes three days later, so Real may slow down once they lead.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Real Madrid win is one leg of our double No. 112. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.57, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 112 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Real Madrid win, no bet
- Prediction updated · now a bet: Real Madrid win at 1.22, a leg of our double with Olympiacos (earlier call: over 2.5 goals, analysis only)
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:1Bet at 1.22
- Happened
- 4:1Real Madrid win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.