Double · No. 131 · 21 OCTLost
Bayern vs Arsenal + Sporting vs LASK
- 01Bayern vs ArsenalBayern or draw1.33 · Won
- 02Sporting vs LASKSporting win1.18 · Lost
- Total odds
- 1.57
- Stake
- 3.00 units
- P&L
- -3.00 units
- Our estimate
- 55–61%
Published 21 OCT 08:3218+Play responsibly
Why this betA Champions League double for Wednesday night. Bayern Munich host Arsenal unbeaten in ten games, and we take Bayern or a draw; Sporting host LASK with six points from two games against LASK's none, and we take a Sporting win.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 21 OCT · 20:00 UK
Bayern vs Arsenal
Bayern or draw1.33Won
Why this pickBayern are unbeaten in ten games, 7-3-0 with 36 goals for, and make 3.80 expected goals a game in the Bundesliga against 0.94 allowed. Arsenal miss William Saliba in the centre of defence. Our call is a Bayern win, most likely 2:1; Bayern or a draw also covers the 1:1 that Sports Mole predicts.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate · Bayern or draw
- 71–74%
Form · Bayern 11 from 15. Arsenal 12 from 15.
Bayern11 pts
- Winvs RB Leipzig6:1
- Drawvs Viking FK3:3
- Drawvs Augsburg2:2
- Winvs Union Berlin7:0
- Winvs Elversberg2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 4.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Arsenal12 pts
- Winvs Nottingham Forest1:0
- Winvs Lille3:0
- Winvs Leeds United2:1
- Lossvs Brighton0:3
- Winvs Ipswich Town4:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lineups · Expected
- Bayern
- OutJamal MusialaThigh injury
- DoubtMichael OliseSuspension reported by one preview; sources differ
- DoubtKim Min-jaeSuspension reported by one preview; sources differ
- DoubtJoshua KimmichMissed training for personal reasons
- DoubtManuel NeuerFoot problem, expected to be fit
- Arsenal
- OutWilliam SalibaBack injury
- OutPiero HincapiéAnkle injury
- OutChristos TzolisThigh injury
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 4
Our positionWe side with SportsGambler, Opta and the KickOff model on a Bayern win. Sports Mole's 1:1 is the case against us, and KickOff also names 1:1 as the single most likely score.
Scenario & score
Bayern press, Arsenal hold, Kane decides it. Bayern will press high and shoot from everywhere, as they have all season, and Arsenal will sit compact and look for Saka and Madueke on the break and for set pieces. Without Saliba, Arsenal's centre-back pair faces Kane, the hardest test of their season. We expect a tight first half and the decisive goal for Bayern after the break. 2:1 is our main score and 1:1, as Sports Mole predicts, the alternative. Our bet is Bayern or a draw: any Bayern win and any draw take the leg, only an Arsenal win loses it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Arsenal have not conceded in the Champions League and kept six clean sheets in their last ten games.
- 02Bayern are without Musiala, may lose Olise or Kim to a ban, and Kimmich missed training.
- 03Bayern's big wins came against weaker sides; against Viking and Augsburg they drew.
- 04Sports Mole and the KickOff model both see 1:1 as the most likely score.
Key factBayern beat RB Leipzig 6:1 on Saturday; before that they drew 3:3 at Viking in the Champions League and 2:2 at Augsburg, and beat Union Berlin 7:0 and Elversberg 2:1. Over ten games they are 7-3-0 with 36 goals for and 10 against, hit the target ten times a game and allow 2.7 shots on target (ESPN). In the Bundesliga they make 3.80 expected goals and allow 0.94 (Understat). Arsenal won 1:0 at Nottingham Forest on Sunday after 3:0 against Lille; they also beat Leeds 2:1 and Ipswich 4:2, and lost 0:3 at Brighton. Over ten games they are 9-0-1 with 19 goals for and 7 against and six clean sheets, and in the Premier League they make 1.81 expected goals and allow 1.06. Arsenal won 1:0 at Napoli and 3:0 against Lille in the Champions League (Sports Mole).
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 21 OCT · 20:00 UK
Sporting vs LASK
Sporting win1.18Lost
Why this pickSporting beat Galatasaray 3:1 and won 2:0 at Lens; LASK lost at AEK Athens and 3:6 at home to Liverpool, conceding seven in two games, and lost 0:2 at home to Rapid in the league. Opta's model gives Sporting 74.1%. Our score is 2:0.
- Predicted score · alt 3:1
- 2:0
- Our estimate · Sporting win
- 78–82%
Form · Sporting 11 from 15. LASK 4 from 15.
Sporting11 pts
- Winvs Lens2:0
- Winvs Braga3:1
- Drawvs Arouca2:2
- Drawvs Famalicão1:1
- Winvs Galatasaray3:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
LASK4 pts
- Winvs Austria Lustenau4:0
- Lossvs Liverpool3:6
- Lossvs Rapid Vienna0:2
- Drawvs Hartberg3:3
- Lossvs Sturm Graz1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Lineups · Expected
- Sporting
- OutRodrigo ZalazarInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
- OutZeno DebastInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
- OutNuno SantosInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
- LASK
- OutGeorge BelloInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
- OutRamiz HarakateInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
- OutMoses UsorInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2
Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect fewer goals: 2:0.
Scenario & score
Sporting control it, LASK's defence gives way. Sporting will have the ball and the territory at home, and LASK, who conceded six against Liverpool and two at home to Rapid, will try to stay compact and break. LASK do score, ten goals in their last five games, so a goal for them is possible, but Sporting have more quality in every line. 2:0 is our main score and 3:1 the alternative. A Sporting win takes the bet with 2:0, 3:1 or any other home win; a draw or a LASK win loses it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01LASK scored three at Liverpool's expense and four at Lustenau, so they create chances against anyone.
- 02Sporting drew two of their last four league games, with Arouca and at Famalicão.
- 03Injuries on both sides come from one preview only; the real line-ups are unknown until an hour before kick-off.
- 04LASK beat Sporting in one of their three meetings in the 2019/20 Europa League.
Key factSporting won 3:1 against Galatasaray and 2:0 at Lens in the Champions League, and 3:1 at Braga in the league on 9 October; before that they drew 2:2 with Arouca and 1:1 at Famalicão. LASK lost 0:2 at home to Rapid Vienna on 11 October and 3:6 at home to Liverpool three days later, then won 4:0 at Austria Lustenau on Saturday. In the league they drew 3:3 at Hartberg and lost 1:2 at Sturm Graz in September (ESPN). After two rounds Sporting have a goal difference of +4 and LASK of −4.
Full match analysis