Luis Suárez has scored in nine straight games. The last Sporting man to do it was Yazalde
Our take Suárez's streak is hiding Sporting's defence
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 · Lisbon
SportingvsLASK Sporting CP vs LASK · prediction
Score
2:3
Date
21 OCT
City
Lisbon
Status
Full time
SCP2:3LASFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Sporting vs LASK?
Our Sporting vs LASK prediction is a Sporting win, most likely 2:0, at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon on Wednesday (20:00 UK and Lisbon time). Sporting have six points from two Champions League games, 3:1 against Galatasaray and 2:0 at Lens, while LASK have none: they lost 1:0 at AEK Athens and 3:6 at home to Liverpool last week. A Sporting win is one leg of our double tonight, with Bayern Munich or a draw against Arsenal.
- Predicted score · alt 3:1
- 2:0
- Our estimate
- 78–82%
- Market
- Sporting win
- Our bet
- Double No. 131 · total odds 1.57
- Leg odds
- 1.18
Sporting vs LASK at a glance
| Match | Sporting CP vs LASK |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 21 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 Lisbon |
| Venue | Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon |
| Our pick | Sporting win · 1.18 · Double No. 131 · total odds 1.57 |
| Our estimate | 78–82% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 |
| Main reason | We back Sporting because the gap shows in this season's European results, not just in the names: Sporting beat Galatasaray and won at Lens without conceding there, while LASK lost both games and let in seven goals in them. |
No. 04 · Form
Sporting vs LASK: recent form
Sporting 11 from 15. LASK 4 from 15.
Sporting11 pts
- Winvs Lens2:0
- Winvs Braga3:1
- Drawvs Arouca2:2
- Drawvs Famalicão1:1
- Winvs Galatasaray3:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
LASK4 pts
- Winvs Austria Lustenau4:0
- Lossvs Liverpool3:6
- Lossvs Rapid Vienna0:2
- Drawvs Hartberg3:3
- Lossvs Sturm Graz1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factSporting won 3:1 against Galatasaray and 2:0 at Lens in the Champions League, and 3:1 at Braga in the league on 9 October; before that they drew 2:2 with Arouca and 1:1 at Famalicão. LASK lost 0:2 at home to Rapid Vienna on 11 October and 3:6 at home to Liverpool three days later, then won 4:0 at Austria Lustenau on Saturday. In the league they drew 3:3 at Hartberg and lost 1:2 at Sturm Graz in September (ESPN). After two rounds Sporting have a goal difference of +4 and LASK of −4.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Sporting vs LASK team news
Sporting and LASK both report injuries in one preview.
Sporting
- OutRodrigo ZalazarInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
- OutZeno DebastInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
- OutNuno SantosInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
LASK
- OutGeorge BelloInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
- OutRamiz HarakateInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
- OutMoses UsorInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
TacticsFootballpredictions.com lists Rodrigo Zalazar, Zeno Debast and Nuno Santos as injured for Sporting, and George Bello, Ramiz Harakate and Moses Usor for LASK. We found no second source for these absences, so we treat them as unconfirmed and do not count them for or against either side. Luis Suárez leads Sporting's attack and has two goals in Europe this season. Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Sporting vs LASK?
The model and the preview both back Sporting.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Opta Analyst | Sporting win in 74.1% of simulations | Same side |
| Footballpredictions.com | Sporting 4:1 LASK | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect fewer goals: 2:0.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Sporting vs LASK predicted score
Sporting control it, LASK's defence gives way.
Sporting will have the ball and the territory at home, and LASK, who conceded six against Liverpool and two at home to Rapid, will try to stay compact and break. LASK do score, ten goals in their last five games, so a goal for them is possible, but Sporting have more quality in every line. 2:0 is our main score and 3:1 the alternative. A Sporting win takes the bet with 2:0, 3:1 or any other home win; a draw or a LASK win loses it.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Alternative
- 3:1
Your score
SCP
LAS
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Sporting vs LASK pick: Sporting win
Sporting win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We back Sporting because the gap shows in this season's European results, not just in the names: Sporting beat Galatasaray and won at Lens without conceding there, while LASK lost both games and let in seven goals in them. LASK's last home defeats came against Rapid and Liverpool, and Lisbon is a harder place than either. We expect Sporting to win it in the first hour and LASK to look for a consolation.
Our probability78–82%
Our pickSporting win
Leg odds1.18
Main scenario2:0
- Our scenario
- 2:0alternative 3:1
What would change our mind If Sporting rest several starters ahead of the weekend, we would still expect a home win but by one goal.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting win | 1.18 | 84.7% |
| Draw | 7.71 | 13% |
| LASK win | 12.37 | 8.1% |
Odds snapshot 21 OCT 05:38 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why LASK could take something from Lisbon.
- LASK scored three at Liverpool's expense and four at Lustenau, so they create chances against anyone.
- Sporting drew two of their last four league games, with Arouca and at Famalicão.
- Injuries on both sides come from one preview only; the real line-ups are unknown until an hour before kick-off.
- LASK beat Sporting in one of their three meetings in the 2019/20 Europa League.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Sporting win is one leg of our double No. 131. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.57, 3.00 units.
Open double No. 131 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · our bet: Sporting win at 1.18, a leg of the double with Bayern Munich vs Arsenal (Bayern or draw)
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:0Bet at 1.18
- Happened
- 2:3LASK win
Lost
Read next
- Our betBayern or draw + Sporting to win
- Same nightBayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction
- Last weekLASK vs Liverpool prediction
- SportingBraga vs Sporting prediction
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.