Klopp still can't work out Bayern without the ball. Kompany: "Next question"
Our take Klopp's doubt comes with a number: 8 in 4
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 · Munich
BayernvsArsenal Bayern Munich vs Arsenal · prediction
Score
2:2
Date
21 OCT
City
Munich
Status
Full time
FCB2:2ARSFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Bayern vs Arsenal?
Our Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction is a Bayern win, most likely 2:1, at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday (20:00 UK, 21:00 in Munich). The champions of Germany and England meet in the Champions League league phase: Vincent Kompany's Bayern are unbeaten in ten games and create 3.80 expected goals a game in the Bundesliga, while Mikel Arteta's Arsenal have won nine of their last ten and are yet to concede in this season's Champions League. Bayern are without Jamal Musiala and Arsenal without William Saliba. Bayern or a draw is one leg of our double tonight, with a Sporting win against LASK.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 71–74%
- Market
- Bayern or draw
- Our bet
- Double No. 131 · total odds 1.57
- Leg odds
- 1.33
Bayern vs Arsenal at a glance
| Match | Bayern Munich vs Arsenal |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 21 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Munich |
| Venue | Allianz Arena, Munich |
| Our pick | Bayern or draw · 1.33 · Double No. 131 · total odds 1.57 |
| Our estimate | 71–74% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | We think Bayern are strongest exactly where Arsenal are thinnest tonight: in the middle of the defence, with Saliba out. |
No. 04 · Form
Bayern vs Arsenal: recent form
Bayern 11 from 15. Arsenal 12 from 15.
Bayern11 pts
- Winvs RB Leipzig6:1
- Drawvs Viking FK3:3
- Drawvs Augsburg2:2
- Winvs Union Berlin7:0
- Winvs Elversberg2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 4.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Arsenal12 pts
- Winvs Nottingham Forest1:0
- Winvs Lille3:0
- Winvs Leeds United2:1
- Lossvs Brighton0:3
- Winvs Ipswich Town4:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factBayern beat RB Leipzig 6:1 on Saturday; before that they drew 3:3 at Viking in the Champions League and 2:2 at Augsburg, and beat Union Berlin 7:0 and Elversberg 2:1. Over ten games they are 7-3-0 with 36 goals for and 10 against, hit the target ten times a game and allow 2.7 shots on target (ESPN). In the Bundesliga they make 3.80 expected goals and allow 0.94 (Understat). Arsenal won 1:0 at Nottingham Forest on Sunday after 3:0 against Lille; they also beat Leeds 2:1 and Ipswich 4:2, and lost 0:3 at Brighton. Over ten games they are 9-0-1 with 19 goals for and 7 against and six clean sheets, and in the Premier League they make 1.81 expected goals and allow 1.06. Arsenal won 1:0 at Napoli and 3:0 against Lille in the Champions League (Sports Mole).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Bayern vs Arsenal team news
Bayern without Musiala; Arsenal without Saliba and Hincapié.
Bayern
- OutJamal MusialaThigh injury
- DoubtMichael OliseSuspension reported by one preview; sources differ
- DoubtKim Min-jaeSuspension reported by one preview; sources differ
- DoubtJoshua KimmichMissed training for personal reasons
- DoubtManuel NeuerFoot problem, expected to be fit
Arsenal
- OutWilliam SalibaBack injury
- OutPiero HincapiéAnkle injury
- OutChristos TzolisThigh injury
TacticsJamal Musiala misses out with a thigh problem, according to Sports Mole and SportsGambler. The previews disagree on a suspension: Sports Mole says Michael Olise serves a one-match ban after two bookings against Viking, while SportsGambler lists Olise only with yellow cards and names Kim Min-jae as the suspended player, so we count neither as confirmed. Joshua Kimmich missed Tuesday's training for personal reasons (Sports Mole), and Manuel Neuer, who sat out the weekend with a foot problem, is expected to be fit. Arsenal are without William Saliba (back), Piero Hincapié (ankle) and Christos Tzolis (thigh) in both previews, so Ezri Konsa is expected next to Gabriel; Martín Zubimendi is fit again. Harry Kane leads Bayern's attack with Luis Díaz, Lennart Karl and Ismael Saibari; Sports Mole expects Viktor Gyökeres up front for Arsenal, with Saka, Ødegaard and Madueke behind him.
In the news
Bayern's 6-1 hid it: Olise banned, Musiala out, Neuer a doubt for Arsenal
Our take Without Olise, Arsenal arrive as the better side
Luis Díaz had 49 goals and assists last season. In his last six games: none
Our take No panic: Bayern have no other left winger
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 4
Who do others back in Bayern vs Arsenal?
Models favour Bayern; Sports Mole sees a draw.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| SportsGambler | Bayern 2:1 Arsenal | Same side |
| Opta Analyst | Bayern 45.0%, Arsenal 30.7% | Same side |
| KickOff (model) | Bayern 47%, draw 23%, Arsenal 30% | Same side |
| Sports Mole | Bayern 1:1 Arsenal | Same side |
Our positionWe side with SportsGambler, Opta and the KickOff model on a Bayern win. Sports Mole's 1:1 is the case against us, and KickOff also names 1:1 as the single most likely score.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Bayern vs Arsenal predicted score
Bayern press, Arsenal hold, Kane decides it.
Bayern will press high and shoot from everywhere, as they have all season, and Arsenal will sit compact and look for Saka and Madueke on the break and for set pieces. Without Saliba, Arsenal's centre-back pair faces Kane, the hardest test of their season. We expect a tight first half and the decisive goal for Bayern after the break. 2:1 is our main score and 1:1, as Sports Mole predicts, the alternative. Our bet is Bayern or a draw: any Bayern win and any draw take the leg, only an Arsenal win loses it.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
FCB
ARS
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Bayern vs Arsenal pick: Bayern or draw
Bayern or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Bayern are strongest exactly where Arsenal are thinnest tonight: in the middle of the defence, with Saliba out. Over ten games Bayern give their opponents 2.7 shots on target a game and create ten, and 3.80 expected goals for against 0.94 is not the product of one rout. Arsenal rarely concede, so we expect a close game won by a Kane or Díaz goal in the second half.
Our probability71–74%
Our pickBayern or draw
Leg odds1.33
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 1:1
What would change our mind If neither Olise nor Kimmich starts for Bayern, we would move our call to a draw.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern win | 2.05 | 48.8% |
| Draw | 3.79 | 26.4% |
| Arsenal win | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| Bayern or draw | 1.33 | 75.2% |
| Arsenal or draw | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.52 | 65.8% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.49 | 40.2% |
Odds snapshot 21 OCT 06:38 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Arsenal could leave with a point or more.
- Arsenal have not conceded in the Champions League and kept six clean sheets in their last ten games.
- Bayern are without Musiala, may lose Olise or Kim to a ban, and Kimmich missed training.
- Bayern's big wins came against weaker sides; against Viking and Augsburg they drew.
- Sports Mole and the KickOff model both see 1:1 as the most likely score.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Bayern or draw is one leg of our double No. 131. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.57, 3.00 units.
Open double No. 131 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Bayern or draw, no bet
- Prediction updated · now a bet leg: Bayern or draw at 1.33, in the double with Sporting vs LASK (earlier call: Bayern to win, analysis only)
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:1Bet at 1.33
- Happened
- 2:2Draw
Won
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- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.