Double: Inter vs Shakhtar + Real Madrid vs Leipzig

Why this betTwo Champions League underdogs with goals of cover. Inter have lost both European games and play without Lautaro Martínez, and every preview sees a one-goal Inter win, so we take Shakhtar +3; Real Madrid face RB Leipzig four days before the Clásico, and we take Leipzig +3.5, which loses only to a Madrid win by four or more.

Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 21 OCT · 20:00 UK

Inter vs Shakhtar

Shakhtar +3 handicap1.34Won

Why this pickInter lost 1:2 at Real Madrid and 3:4 at home to Club Brugge, conceding six in two Champions League games, and miss Lautaro Martínez, Pavard, Jones and Stones. Shakhtar drew at PSV and beat AEK 3:1. Sports Mole and SportsGambler both predict 2:1 to Inter; a three-goal Inter win returns the stake, only four or more loses.

Predicted score · alt 3:1: 2:1
Our estimate · Shakhtar +3 handicap: 87–90%

Form · Inter 10 from 15. Shakhtar 4 from 6.

Inter10 pts

Winvs Bologna3:1
Lossvs Club Brugge3:4
Winvs Parma3:0
Drawvs Roma2:2
Winvs Udinese5:3

: 3.20
: 2.00
: 100%
: 80%

Shakhtar4 pts

Winvs AEK Athens3:1
Drawvs PSV1:1

Lineups · Expected

Inter
OutLautaro MartínezThigh injury
OutBenjamin PavardThigh injury
OutCurtis JonesInjury
OutJohn StonesInjury

Shakhtar
OutEguinaldoInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
OutAlaa GhramInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)

What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3

Our positionWe agree that Inter are favourites and that the margin is likely one goal; that is why we take Shakhtar with three goals of cover.

Scenario & score

Inter win it, Shakhtar keep it close. Inter will have the ball and the chances at San Siro, but without Lautaro their attack is thinner, and their defence has conceded six goals in two Champions League games and ten in their last five. Shakhtar arrive in form and score regularly. 2:1 is our main score and 3:1 the alternative. Shakhtar +3 wins the bet if Shakhtar lose by one or two goals, draw or win; a three-goal Inter win returns the stake, and only an Inter win by four or more loses it.

Arguing against ourselves

01Inter make 3.15 expected goals a game in Serie A and hit the target 8.6 times a game over their last five (ESPN, Understat).
02Inter scored 16 goals in their last five games, three or more in four of them.
03Shakhtar's league form comes from one preview only, and their own injury news is unconfirmed.
04Inter have lost twice in Europe and may play with extra urgency at home.

Key factInter won 3:1 at Bologna on Saturday after losing 3:4 at home to Club Brugge in the Champions League; before that they beat Parma 3:0 and drew 2:2 at Roma (ESPN). In the Champions League they lost 1:2 at Real Madrid and 3:4 to Brugge, so they have no points and have conceded six goals in two games. Shakhtar drew 1:1 at PSV and beat AEK Athens 3:1 in the Champions League (ESPN), and Sports Mole has them winning their last four league games, the latest 2:1 against Kolos on Saturday.

Full match analysis

Leg 2 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 21 OCT · 20:00 UK

Real Madrid vs Leipzig

Leipzig +3.5 handicap1.28Won

Why this pickReal Madrid have conceded in eight of their last ten games, and Leipzig failed to score only once in their last ten. Madrid play Barcelona away on Sunday. Our score is 3:1 to Madrid; Leipzig +3.5 loses only to a Madrid win by four or more.

Predicted score · alt 3:0: 3:1
Our estimate · Leipzig +3.5 handicap: 89–92%

Form · Real Madrid 12 from 15. Leipzig 9 from 15.

Real Madrid12 pts

Winvs Sevilla4:1
Winvs Roma4:3
Winvs Villarreal1:0
Lossvs Atlético Madrid1:2
Winvs Elche3:2

: 2.60
: 1.60
: 80%
: 80%

Leipzig9 pts

Lossvs Bayern Munich1:6
Winvs PSV1:0
Winvs Eintracht Frankfurt6:0
Lossvs Bayer Leverkusen0:2
Winvs Hamburger SV5:0

: 2.60
: 1.60
: 60%
: 20%

Lineups · Expected

Real Madrid
OutRodrygoKnee injury
OutFerland MendyHip injury
OutRaúl AsencioLeg injury

Leipzig
OutAssan OuédraogoShoulder injury
DoubtChristoph BaumgartnerHamstring, one preview
DoubtMarc GuiuHamstring, one preview

What others predict · Consensus 4 of 4

Our positionEveryone backs a Madrid win. On goals, Sports Mole's 3:1 and the KickOff model (both teams to score 66%) agree with us; SportsGambler's 3:0 is the case against.

Scenario & score

Madrid win it, Leipzig find a goal. Demichelis's Leipzig play high and open: over their last five games opponents hit the target 8.2 times a game against them, which is space for Mbappé and Vinícius. But Leipzig also create, 6.7 shots on target a game over their last ten, with Nkunku and Gruda behind the striker, and Madrid have conceded in eight of their last ten. 3:1 is our main score and 3:0 the alternative. Our bet is Leipzig +3.5: it wins with any Madrid win by three goals or fewer, a draw or a Leipzig win, and loses only if Madrid win by four or more.

Arguing against ourselves

01Leipzig kept five clean sheets and saw both teams score in only four of their last ten games: their matches are often one-way, 6:0, 5:0, 0:2 and 1:6.
02SportsGambler predicts 3:0.
03Leipzig were beaten 6:1 at Bayern on Saturday and could arrive low on confidence.

Key factReal Madrid beat Sevilla 4:1 on Sunday after winning 4:3 at Roma in the Champions League; before that came 1:0 against Villarreal, a 1:2 defeat at Atlético Madrid and 3:2 at Elche. Over ten games they are 8-0-2 with 27 goals for and 12 against, and kept only two clean sheets. They are third in LaLiga with 21 points, six behind Barcelona (Sports Mole), and make 2.58 expected goals a game while allowing 1.07 (Understat). Leipzig lost 1:6 at Bayern on Saturday; before that they beat PSV 1:0 in the Champions League, Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0 and Hamburg 5:0, and lost 0:2 at Leverkusen. They also lost 1:4 at Como in the Champions League and sit seventh in the Bundesliga with nine points. Over ten games Leipzig are 5-0-5, scored 25 and conceded 19, and failed to score once.

Full match analysis