Report: Inter top Serie A with 0 Champions League points, and Chivu turns to Provedel
Our take Inter's European problem is six goals, not one goalkeeper
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 · Milan
IntervsShakhtar Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk · prediction
Score
1:0
Date
21 OCT
City
Milan
Status
Full time
INT1:0SHAFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Inter vs Shakhtar?
Our Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction is an Inter win by a single goal, most likely 2:1, at San Siro on Wednesday (20:00 UK, 21:00 in Milan), so our bet is Shakhtar with a +3 Asian handicap. Inter have lost both Champions League games, 1:2 at Real Madrid and 3:4 at home to Club Brugge, conceding six, and play without Lautaro Martínez. Shakhtar have four points from two games after 1:1 at PSV and 3:1 against AEK Athens. Shakhtar +3 is one leg of our double tonight, with RB Leipzig +3.5 at Real Madrid.
- Predicted score · alt 3:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 87–90%
- Market
- Shakhtar +3 handicap
- Our bet
- Double No. 132 · total odds 1.72
- Leg odds
- 1.34
Inter vs Shakhtar at a glance
| Match | Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 21 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Milan |
| Venue | San Siro, Milan |
| Our pick | Shakhtar +3 handicap · 1.34 · Double No. 132 · total odds 1.72 |
| Our estimate | 87–90% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | We back Shakhtar with three goals of cover because tonight's Inter win the ball but not the game cleanly: they have conceded six in two Champions League games and ten in their last five, and they are without Lautaro, Pavard, Jones and Stones. |
No. 04 · Form
Inter vs Shakhtar: recent form
Inter 10 from 15. Shakhtar 4 from 6.
Inter10 pts
- Winvs Bologna3:1
- Lossvs Club Brugge3:4
- Winvs Parma3:0
- Drawvs Roma2:2
- Winvs Udinese5:3
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Shakhtar4 pts
- Winvs AEK Athens3:1
- Drawvs PSV1:1
Key factInter won 3:1 at Bologna on Saturday after losing 3:4 at home to Club Brugge in the Champions League; before that they beat Parma 3:0 and drew 2:2 at Roma (ESPN). In the Champions League they lost 1:2 at Real Madrid and 3:4 to Brugge, so they have no points and have conceded six goals in two games. Shakhtar drew 1:1 at PSV and beat AEK Athens 3:1 in the Champions League (ESPN), and Sports Mole has them winning their last four league games, the latest 2:1 against Kolos on Saturday.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Inter vs Shakhtar team news
Inter without Lautaro, Pavard, Jones and Stones.
Inter
- OutLautaro MartínezThigh injury
- OutBenjamin PavardThigh injury
- OutCurtis JonesInjury
- OutJohn StonesInjury
Shakhtar
- OutEguinaldoInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
- OutAlaa GhramInjury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
TacticsBoth Sports Mole and SportsGambler list Lautaro Martínez (thigh, out until around 20 November), Benjamin Pavard (thigh), Curtis Jones and John Stones as out for Inter, so these absences are confirmed by two previews. For Shakhtar, Sports Mole names Eguinaldo and Alaa Ghram as out and Marlon Santos and Diego Arroyo as doubtful, while SportsGambler lists no injuries, so we treat Shakhtar's absences as unconfirmed. Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Report: Turkey could replace Montella with Shakhtar coach Arda Turan, who might keep both jobs
Our take Shakhtar should say no to a part-time coach
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Inter vs Shakhtar?
Everyone backs Inter, by one goal.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Inter 2:1 Shakhtar | Other side |
| SportsGambler | Inter 2:1 Shakhtar | Other side |
| Opta Analyst | Inter win in 75.0% of simulations | Other side |
Our positionWe agree that Inter are favourites and that the margin is likely one goal; that is why we take Shakhtar with three goals of cover.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Inter vs Shakhtar predicted score
Inter win it, Shakhtar keep it close.
Inter will have the ball and the chances at San Siro, but without Lautaro their attack is thinner, and their defence has conceded six goals in two Champions League games and ten in their last five. Shakhtar arrive in form and score regularly. 2:1 is our main score and 3:1 the alternative. Shakhtar +3 wins the bet if Shakhtar lose by one or two goals, draw or win; a three-goal Inter win returns the stake, and only an Inter win by four or more loses it.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 3:1
Your score
INT
SHA
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Inter vs Shakhtar pick: Shakhtar +3 handicap
Shakhtar +3 handicap: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We back Shakhtar with three goals of cover because tonight's Inter win the ball but not the game cleanly: they have conceded six in two Champions League games and ten in their last five, and they are without Lautaro, Pavard, Jones and Stones. Shakhtar have not lost in Europe this season and score in almost every game. All three previews see a one-goal Inter win, so a four-goal margin is the only result that beats us.
Our probability87–90%
Our pickShakhtar +3 handicap
Leg odds1.34
Main scenario2:1
- Wins with
- 1:01:12:12:00:00:1…
- Money back with
- 3:04:1
- Loses with
- 4:0…
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 3:1
What would change our mind If Shakhtar rest several starters for the league game at Zorya on Saturday, we would expect a wider Inter win and drop the leg.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Draw | 7.35 | 13.6% |
| Shakhtar win | 11.93 | 8.4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 58.5% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Shakhtar +3 handicap | 1.34 | 74.6% |
Odds snapshot 21 OCT 06:38 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Inter could run away with it.
- Inter make 3.15 expected goals a game in Serie A and hit the target 8.6 times a game over their last five (ESPN, Understat).
- Inter scored 16 goals in their last five games, three or more in four of them.
- Shakhtar's league form comes from one preview only, and their own injury news is unconfirmed.
- Inter have lost twice in Europe and may play with extra urgency at home.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Shakhtar +3 handicap is one leg of our double No. 132. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.72, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 132 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · our bet: Shakhtar +3 handicap at 1.34, a leg of the double with Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig (Leipzig +3.5)
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:1Bet at 1.34
- Happened
- 1:0Inter win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.