Sevilla demand LaLiga's raw footage after Güler's elbow got no close-up replay
Our take "Nothing hidden" needs the raw footage
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 · Madrid
Real MadridvsLeipzig Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig · prediction
Score
4:1
Date
21 OCT
City
Madrid
Status
Full time
RMA4:1RBLFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Real Madrid vs Leipzig?
Our Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction is a Real Madrid win with both teams scoring, most likely 3:1, at the Santiago Bernabéu on Wednesday (20:00 UK, 21:00 in Madrid). José Mourinho's Real Madrid have won eight of their last ten games and beat Sevilla 4:1 on Sunday, but conceded in eight of those ten. Martín Demichelis's Leipzig lost 1:6 at Bayern on Saturday and need points in the Champions League, yet they failed to score only once in their last ten games. Madrid play Barcelona away on Sunday. Our bet is Leipzig with a +3.5 handicap, one leg of the double with Shakhtar +3 at Inter.
- Predicted score · alt 3:0
- 3:1
- Our estimate
- 89–92%
- Market
- Leipzig +3.5 handicap
- Our bet
- Double No. 132 · total odds 1.72
- Leg odds
- 1.28
Real Madrid vs Leipzig at a glance
| Match | Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 21 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Madrid |
| Venue | Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid |
| Our pick | Leipzig +3.5 handicap · 1.28 · Double No. 132 · total odds 1.72 |
| Our estimate | 89–92% |
| Predicted score | 3:1 |
| Main reason | We expect Madrid to win, but not with a clean sheet. |
No. 04 · Form
Real Madrid vs Leipzig: recent form
Real Madrid 12 from 15. Leipzig 9 from 15.
Real Madrid12 pts
- Winvs Sevilla4:1
- Winvs Roma4:3
- Winvs Villarreal1:0
- Lossvs Atlético Madrid1:2
- Winvs Elche3:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Leipzig9 pts
- Lossvs Bayern Munich1:6
- Winvs PSV1:0
- Winvs Eintracht Frankfurt6:0
- Lossvs Bayer Leverkusen0:2
- Winvs Hamburger SV5:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 20%
Key factReal Madrid beat Sevilla 4:1 on Sunday after winning 4:3 at Roma in the Champions League; before that came 1:0 against Villarreal, a 1:2 defeat at Atlético Madrid and 3:2 at Elche. Over ten games they are 8-0-2 with 27 goals for and 12 against, and kept only two clean sheets. They are third in LaLiga with 21 points, six behind Barcelona (Sports Mole), and make 2.58 expected goals a game while allowing 1.07 (Understat). Leipzig lost 1:6 at Bayern on Saturday; before that they beat PSV 1:0 in the Champions League, Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0 and Hamburg 5:0, and lost 0:2 at Leverkusen. They also lost 1:4 at Como in the Champions League and sit seventh in the Bundesliga with nine points. Over ten games Leipzig are 5-0-5, scored 25 and conceded 19, and failed to score once.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Real Madrid vs Leipzig team news
Madrid without Rodrygo, Mendy and Asencio; Vinícius available.
Real Madrid
- OutRodrygoKnee injury
- OutFerland MendyHip injury
- OutRaúl AsencioLeg injury
Leipzig
- OutAssan OuédraogoShoulder injury
- DoubtChristoph BaumgartnerHamstring, one preview
- DoubtMarc GuiuHamstring, one preview
TacticsReal Madrid are without Rodrygo (knee), Ferland Mendy (hip) and Raúl Asencio (leg), according to Sports Mole and SportsGambler. Vinícius Júnior can play: Sports Mole notes his suspension applies only to domestic games. Both previews expect Mbappé up front with Vinícius, Bellingham and Diomande behind him, and Güler with Tchouaméni in midfield. Leipzig are without Assan Ouédraogo (shoulder) in both previews; Sports Mole also lists Christoph Baumgartner and SportsGambler lists Marc Guiu, neither confirmed by a second source. Leipzig's expected attack is Nkunku, Gruda and Nusa behind Rómulo. With the Clásico at Barcelona four days later, Mourinho may rotate, which we will check when the line-ups come out an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Report: Pérez eyes Deschamps if Mourinho fails, and the Clásico is the test
Our take The table will decide this before Pérez does
Mastantuono lost the ball 18 times at Genoa. Vanoli's answer: keep playing him
Our take This is protection, not a warning
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4
Who do others back in Real Madrid vs Leipzig?
All back Madrid; two of three see a Leipzig goal.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Real Madrid 3:1 RB Leipzig | Other side |
| KickOff (model) | Expected goals 3.2 to 1.2, both teams to score 66% | Other side |
| SportsGambler | Real Madrid 3:0 RB Leipzig | Other side |
| Opta Analyst | Real Madrid 70.5% | Other side |
Our positionEveryone backs a Madrid win. On goals, Sports Mole's 3:1 and the KickOff model (both teams to score 66%) agree with us; SportsGambler's 3:0 is the case against.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Real Madrid vs Leipzig predicted score
Madrid win it, Leipzig find a goal.
Demichelis's Leipzig play high and open: over their last five games opponents hit the target 8.2 times a game against them, which is space for Mbappé and Vinícius. But Leipzig also create, 6.7 shots on target a game over their last ten, with Nkunku and Gruda behind the striker, and Madrid have conceded in eight of their last ten. 3:1 is our main score and 3:0 the alternative. Our bet is Leipzig +3.5: it wins with any Madrid win by three goals or fewer, a draw or a Leipzig win, and loses only if Madrid win by four or more.
- Predicted score
- 3:1
- Alternative
- 3:0
Your score
RMA
RBL
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Real Madrid vs Leipzig pick: Leipzig +3.5 handicap
Leipzig +3.5 handicap: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We expect Madrid to win, but not with a clean sheet. Madrid conceded in eight of their last ten games, even in wins such as 4:3 at Roma and 3:2 at Elche, and Leipzig almost always score. With the Clásico on Sunday, Madrid may manage the game once ahead, and Leipzig, who need points after 1:6 in Munich, will keep attacking. That is why we see 3:1.
Our probability89–92%
Our pickLeipzig +3.5 handicap
Leg odds1.28
Main scenario3:1
- Wins with
- 1:01:12:12:00:00:1…
- Loses with
- 4:0…
- Our scenario
- 3:1alternative 3:0
What would change our mind If neither Nkunku nor Gruda starts for Leipzig, we would move our call to a Madrid clean sheet.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 1.23 | 81.3% |
| Draw | 7.14 | 14% |
| Leipzig win | 9.72 | 10.3% |
| Real Madrid or draw | 1.05 | 95.2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.49 | 40.2% |
| Leipzig +3.5 handicap | 1.28 | 78.1% |
Odds snapshot 21 OCT 06:38 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Leipzig could fail to score.
- Leipzig kept five clean sheets and saw both teams score in only four of their last ten games: their matches are often one-way, 6:0, 5:0, 0:2 and 1:6.
- SportsGambler predicts 3:0.
- Leipzig were beaten 6:1 at Bayern on Saturday and could arrive low on confidence.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Leipzig +3.5 handicap is one leg of our double No. 132. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.72, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 132 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Leipzig +3.5 handicap, no bet
- Prediction updated · now a bet leg: Leipzig +3.5 handicap at 1.28, in the double with Inter vs Shakhtar (earlier call: both teams to score, analysis only)
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:1Bet at 1.28
- Happened
- 4:1Real Madrid win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.