Double · No. 141 · 22 OCTPending
Juventus vs Rennes + Getafe vs Lugano
- 01Juventus vs RennesRennes +2.25 handicap1.29
- 02Getafe vs LuganoUnder 3.5 goals1.26
- Total odds
- 1.63
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- Our estimate
- 66–70%
Published 22 OCT 10:22
Odds: average of 6 popular bookmakers, 22 OCT 10:2218+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 6 popular bookmakers, 22 OCT 10:2218+Play responsibly
Why this betA Thursday double with goals of cover. Juventus host Rennes without six players, Yıldız and Locatelli among them, four days after losing 0:3 to Lazio, so we take Rennes +2.25; Getafe, who have gone over 2.5 goals in only two of their last ten games, host Lugano, and we take under 3.5 goals.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Europa League · 22 OCT · 17:45 UK
Juventus vs Rennes
Rennes +2.25 handicap1.29
Why this pickJuventus miss Conceição, Yıldız, Khéphren Thuram, Ekhator, Grabara and Locatelli (The Hard Tackle and Goal) and lost 0:3 at home to Lazio on Saturday. Rennes have scored in four of their last five and make 2.35 expected goals a game in Ligue 1. We expect 2:1 to Juventus; the leg loses only to a Juventus win by three or more.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate · Rennes +2.25 handicap
- 83–86%
Form · Juventus 10 from 15. Rennes 7 from 15.
Juventus10 pts
- Lossvs Lazio0:3
- Winvs Celta Vigo2:1
- Drawvs Cagliari1:1
- Winvs Atalanta2:0
- Winvs NEC Nijmegen5:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Rennes7 pts
- Lossvs Paris FC3:4
- Winvs OFI Crete2:1
- Winvs Auxerre4:1
- Lossvs Lyon0:4
- Drawvs Sturm Graz0:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Lineups · Expected
- Juventus
- OutKenan YıldızBroken foot
- OutManuel LocatelliMeniscus injury
- OutFrancisco ConceiçãoDislocated shoulder
- OutKhéphren ThuramInjured
- OutJeff EkhatorThigh injury
- OutKamil GrabaraKnee injury
- Rennes
- DoubtEsteban LepaulAnkle injury, sources disagree
What others predict · Consensus 4 of 4
Our positionWe agree with all four on the winner and with The Hard Tackle and Goal on the score: Rennes create enough to score once, but they have conceded eight goals in their last three away games.
Scenario & score
Juventus control the ball, Rennes leave space and score once. Juventus should have most of the ball and the better chances, as they have all season: over ten games they had 16.9 shots a match against 8.4. Without Yıldız the attack runs through McKennie, Alajbegović and Woltemade, so expect fewer moments of individual quality and more pressure built from the flanks with Cambiaso and Çelik. Rennes play an open game: 2.35 expected goals for and 2.13 against in Ligue 1, and they scored in four of their last five matches, so a Juventus clean sheet is not our base case. 2:1 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if the missing creativity costs Juventus a second goal. Rennes +2.25 wins with any Juventus win by one, a draw or a Rennes win; a Juventus win by exactly two is half won and half returned, and only a Juventus win by three or more loses it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Six players are out, among them the main creator Yıldız and the captain Locatelli.
- 02Juventus lost 0:3 at home to Lazio four days ago.
- 03Rennes scored in four of their last five games, including four goals against Auxerre and three at Paris FC.
- 04Both sides play a league game on Sunday, so either coach may rotate.
Key factJuventus lost 0:3 at home to Lazio on Sunday, after a 2:1 win at Celta Vigo in the Europa League, 1:1 at Cagliari, 2:0 against Atalanta and 5:0 against NEC. Over ten games they are 5-3-2 with 18 goals for and 11 against, and in Serie A they create 1.74 expected goals a game and allow just 0.53 (Understat): their 11 league points are almost five fewer than their chances were worth. Rennes lost 3:4 at Paris FC on Sunday after a 2:1 home win over OFI, 4:1 against Auxerre, 0:4 at Lyon and 0:0 at Sturm Graz. They are 5-2-3 over ten games with 18 goals for and 18 against, and in Ligue 1 they create 2.35 expected goals a game but allow 2.13. Over the last ten games Juventus had 67% of the shots on target in their matches, Rennes 53%. Both clubs play again on Sunday: Juventus at Lecce, Rennes at home to Strasbourg. It is the first meeting between the clubs since 1999 (The Hard Tackle).
Full match analysisLeg 2 · Football · Europe · Conference League · 22 OCT · 17:45 UK
Getafe vs Lugano
Under 3.5 goals1.26
Why this pickGetafe make 0.81 expected goals a game in LaLiga, the fewest in the league, and only two of their last ten games went over 2.5 goals. Lugano arrive scoring, but we expect a tight 1:1; the leg loses only with four goals or more.
- Predicted score · alt 1:0
- 1:1
- Our estimate · Under 3.5 goals
- 80–83%
Form · Getafe 5 from 15. Lugano 3 from 3.
Getafe5 pts
- Drawvs Rayo Vallecano1:1
- Drawvs Universitatea Craiova1:1
- Lossvs Barcelona0:3
- Winvs Málaga1:0
- Lossvs Real Betis0:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 20%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lugano3 pts
- Winvs Red Star Belgrade3:2
Lineups · Expected
- Getafe
- OutChristantus UcheInjured
- OutIván AzónInjured
- OutOrel MangalaInjured
- OutJuanmiInjured
- OutZaid RomeroInjured
- OutDani CarvajalNot registered for the league phase
- Lugano
- OutClaudio CassanoInjured
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 3
Our positionWe share Sports Mole's 1:1 and Sportskeeda's under 2.5. The previews disagree on the winner, which fits our view that this is a game for few goals rather than a clear result.
Scenario & score
Bordalás closes the game, Lugano struggle to break the block. Bordalás builds his team to keep chances to a minimum: a compact block, fouls in midfield, set pieces and long balls to Mayoral. Without Uche and Azón, Getafe's own attack is thin, so their goal is most likely to come from a dead ball. Lugano have the more confident attack, but away in Spain against a deep, physical block we expect them to be careful and play for a point that keeps them in the top part of the table. 1:1 is our main score; 1:0 is the alternative. Under 3.5 comes in with any score of three goals or fewer, 2:1 and 1:1 included; it loses only with four goals or more.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Lugano score a lot: 3:2 against Red Star, 4:0 against Luzern and 4:1 against St Gallen (Sports Mole).
- 02Getafe have five players injured and their defence may not hold for 90 minutes.
- 03Getafe played on Monday and Lugano have had a week off, so the home side may tire late.
- 04An early goal would force Getafe to come out, and the game would change.
Key factGetafe drew 1:1 at home to Rayo Vallecano on Monday, after 1:1 at Universitatea Craiova in the Conference League, a 0:3 defeat at Barcelona, a 1:0 home win over Málaga and 0:1 at Real Betis. Over ten games they are 2-4-4 with seven goals for and eleven against; only two of those ten games had more than two goals, and Getafe failed to score in three. In LaLiga they create 0.81 expected goals a game and allow 1.78 (Understat), and over ten games they hit the target 2.9 times a match. Lugano beat Red Star Belgrade 3:2 at home on matchday one, are eighth in the Conference League table and come in on five straight wins, with league wins such as 4:0 against Luzern and 4:1 against St Gallen (Sports Mole). Lugano have had seven days to rest; Getafe played on Monday and travel to Athletic Club on Sunday.
Full match analysis