Conceição punched the bench after his exit. Spalletti: be angry with yourself
Our take Juve's problem is the attack, not the temper
Football · Europe · Europa League · League phase, matchday 3 · Turin
JuventusvsRennes prediction
Kick-off
18:45
Date
22 OCT
City
Turin
Status
Pre-lineups
JUV18:45RENPre-lineups
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Juventus vs Rennes?
Our Juventus vs Rennes prediction is a Juventus win, most likely 2:1, in the third round of the Europa League league phase at the Allianz Stadium in Turin on Thursday at 17:45 UK (18:45 local). Luciano Spalletti's side top the table with six points and a 7:1 goal difference after beating NEC 5:0 and Celta Vigo 2:1, while Rennes have four points. Juventus come in after a 0:3 home defeat to Lazio and without six players, Kenan Yıldız and captain Manuel Locatelli among them. Rennes have not won any of their last three away games and conceded eight goals in them. Our bet is Rennes +2.25, in a double with Getafe v Lugano under 3.5 goals.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 83–86%
- Market
- Rennes +2.25 handicap
- Our bet
- Double No. 141 · total odds 1.63
- Leg odds
- 1.29
Juventus vs Rennes at a glance
| Match | Juventus vs Rennes |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Europa League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 17:45 UK · 18:45 Turin |
| Venue | Allianz Stadium, Turin |
| Our pick | Rennes +2.25 handicap · 1.29 · Double No. 141 · total odds 1.63 |
| Our estimate | 83–86% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | Juventus allow 0.53 expected goals a game in Serie A, one of the best defensive numbers in Europe, and Rennes have conceded eight goals in their last three away games. |
No. 04 · Form
Juventus vs Rennes: recent form
Juventus 10 from 15. Rennes 7 from 15.
Juventus10 pts
- Lossvs Lazio0:3
- Winvs Celta Vigo2:1
- Drawvs Cagliari1:1
- Winvs Atalanta2:0
- Winvs NEC Nijmegen5:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Rennes7 pts
- Lossvs Paris FC3:4
- Winvs OFI Crete2:1
- Winvs Auxerre4:1
- Lossvs Lyon0:4
- Drawvs Sturm Graz0:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factJuventus lost 0:3 at home to Lazio on Sunday, after a 2:1 win at Celta Vigo in the Europa League, 1:1 at Cagliari, 2:0 against Atalanta and 5:0 against NEC. Over ten games they are 5-3-2 with 18 goals for and 11 against, and in Serie A they create 1.74 expected goals a game and allow just 0.53 (Understat): their 11 league points are almost five fewer than their chances were worth. Rennes lost 3:4 at Paris FC on Sunday after a 2:1 home win over OFI, 4:1 against Auxerre, 0:4 at Lyon and 0:0 at Sturm Graz. They are 5-2-3 over ten games with 18 goals for and 18 against, and in Ligue 1 they create 2.35 expected goals a game but allow 2.13. Over the last ten games Juventus had 67% of the shots on target in their matches, Rennes 53%. Both clubs play again on Sunday: Juventus at Lecce, Rennes at home to Strasbourg. It is the first meeting between the clubs since 1999 (The Hard Tackle).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Juventus vs Rennes team news
Juventus without Yıldız, Locatelli and four more; Lepaul a doubt for Rennes.
Juventus
- OutKenan YıldızBroken foot
- OutManuel LocatelliMeniscus injury
- OutFrancisco ConceiçãoDislocated shoulder
- OutKhéphren ThuramInjured
- OutJeff EkhatorThigh injury
- OutKamil GrabaraKnee injury
Rennes
- DoubtEsteban LepaulAnkle injury, sources disagree
TacticsJuventus are missing Kenan Yıldız (broken foot), Manuel Locatelli (meniscus), Francisco Conceição (dislocated shoulder), Khéphren Thuram, Jeff Ekhator (thigh) and the reserve goalkeeper Kamil Grabara (knee); The Hard Tackle and Goal list the same six names. That takes out the side's main creator and the captain in midfield. The Hard Tackle expects a 3-4-2-1: Vicario; Kalulu, Gatti, Kelly; Çelik, Luiz, Sarr, Cambiaso; McKennie, Alajbegović; Woltemade. For Rennes the sources disagree on Esteban Lepaul, their top scorer with four goals in three games: The Hard Tackle says an ankle injury could keep him out for a couple of weeks, while Goal's preview still tips him to score. The Hard Tackle's expected Rennes side is a 4-3-3: Samba; Reynolds, Cresswell, Ait Boudlal, Nagida; Szymański, Rongier, Camara; Blas, Dia, Soumaré. Official line-ups come an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Openda went back to Lens, the club that made him. He left in the medics' arms
Our take If it is long, Juventus lose most
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4
Who do others back in Juventus vs Rennes?
Every preview we read expects a Juventus win, two of them 2:1.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| The Hard Tackle | Juventus 2:1 Rennes | Other side |
| Goal | Juventus 2:1 Rennes | Other side |
| Sportytrader | Juventus to win, over 2.5 goals | Other side |
| Statz | Juventus 64%, draw 20%, Rennes 16% | Other side |
Our positionWe agree with all four on the winner and with The Hard Tackle and Goal on the score: Rennes create enough to score once, but they have conceded eight goals in their last three away games.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Juventus vs Rennes predicted score
Juventus control the ball, Rennes leave space and score once.
Juventus should have most of the ball and the better chances, as they have all season: over ten games they had 16.9 shots a match against 8.4. Without Yıldız the attack runs through McKennie, Alajbegović and Woltemade, so expect fewer moments of individual quality and more pressure built from the flanks with Cambiaso and Çelik. Rennes play an open game: 2.35 expected goals for and 2.13 against in Ligue 1, and they scored in four of their last five matches, so a Juventus clean sheet is not our base case. 2:1 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if the missing creativity costs Juventus a second goal. Rennes +2.25 wins with any Juventus win by one, a draw or a Rennes win; a Juventus win by exactly two is half won and half returned, and only a Juventus win by three or more loses it.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
JUV
REN
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Juventus vs Rennes pick: Rennes +2.25 handicap
Rennes +2.25 handicap: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Juventus allow 0.53 expected goals a game in Serie A, one of the best defensive numbers in Europe, and Rennes have conceded eight goals in their last three away games. At home in this Europa League campaign Juventus have already beaten NEC 5:0, and they have scored ten and conceded four in five home games this season (The Hard Tackle). Without Yıldız the game will be less bright, but we expect Juventus to create two goals against a defence that allows more than two expected goals a game. We keep it as analysis because six absences and the 0:3 against Lazio leave us less sure of the result than the form table suggests.
Our probability83–86%
Our pickRennes +2.25 handicap
Leg odds1.29
Main scenario2:1
- Wins with
- 1:01:12:12:00:00:1…
- Loses with
- 3:04:04:1…
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 1:1
What would change our mind If Lepaul is back in the Rennes squad and Juventus start without their first-choice goalkeeper, we would expect 1:1 rather than 2:1.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus win | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Draw | 4.33 | 23.1% |
| Rennes win | 5.90 | 16.9% |
| Juventus or draw | 1.11 | 90.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.76 | 56.8% |
| Both teams not to score | 1.99 | 50.3% |
| Rennes +2.25 handicap | 1.29 | 77.5% |
Odds snapshot 22 OCT 11:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Juventus could drop points.
- Six players are out, among them the main creator Yıldız and the captain Locatelli.
- Juventus lost 0:3 at home to Lazio four days ago.
- Rennes scored in four of their last five games, including four goals against Auxerre and three at Paris FC.
- Both sides play a league game on Sunday, so either coach may rotate.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Rennes +2.25 handicap is one leg of our double No. 141. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.63, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 141 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
- Prediction updated · now a bet leg: Rennes +2.25 handicap at 1.29, in the double with Getafe v Lugano under 3.5 (earlier call: Juventus to win, analysis only)
No. 12 · After the match
After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.
Read next
- Our betRennes +2.25 + Getafe v Lugano under 3.5
- Juventus last time out in EuropeCelta Vigo vs Juventus prediction
- Same kick-offGetafe vs Lugano prediction
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.