Lamine Yamal played 281 minutes for Spain after De la Fuente promised a 270-minute cap
Our take He starts Saturday, rests in Istanbul
Football · Europe · Conference League · League phase, matchday 2 · Getafe
GetafevsLugano prediction
Kick-off
18:45
Date
22 OCT
City
Getafe
Status
Pre-lineups
GET18:45LUGPre-lineups
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Getafe vs Lugano?
Our Getafe vs Lugano prediction is under 2.5 goals, most likely 1:1, in the second round of the Conference League league phase at the Coliseum on Thursday at 17:45 UK (18:45 in Madrid). José Bordalás's Getafe have won once in their last nine games and create just 0.81 expected goals a game in LaLiga, and only two of their last ten matches had more than two goals. Lugano arrive on a run of five straight wins (Sports Mole) and beat Red Star Belgrade 3:2 on matchday one, but we expect Getafe to drag them into a tight, low game. Our bet is under 3.5 goals, in a double with Rennes +2.25 at Juventus.
- Predicted score · alt 1:0
- 1:1
- Our estimate
- 80–83%
- Market
- Under 3.5 goals
- Our bet
- Double No. 141 · total odds 1.63
- Leg odds
- 1.26
Getafe vs Lugano at a glance
| Match | Getafe vs Lugano |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Conference League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 17:45 UK · 18:45 Getafe |
| Venue | Coliseum, Getafe |
| Our pick | Under 3.5 goals · 1.26 · Double No. 141 · total odds 1.63 |
| Our estimate | 80–83% |
| Predicted score | 1:1 |
| Main reason | Bordalás's teams are built to keep a game short of chances: in Getafe's last ten matches only two had more than two goals. |
No. 04 · Form
Getafe vs Lugano: recent form
Getafe 5 from 15. Lugano 3 from 3.
Getafe5 pts
- Drawvs Rayo Vallecano1:1
- Drawvs Universitatea Craiova1:1
- Lossvs Barcelona0:3
- Winvs Málaga1:0
- Lossvs Real Betis0:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 20%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Lugano3 pts
- Winvs Red Star Belgrade3:2
Key factGetafe drew 1:1 at home to Rayo Vallecano on Monday, after 1:1 at Universitatea Craiova in the Conference League, a 0:3 defeat at Barcelona, a 1:0 home win over Málaga and 0:1 at Real Betis. Over ten games they are 2-4-4 with seven goals for and eleven against; only two of those ten games had more than two goals, and Getafe failed to score in three. In LaLiga they create 0.81 expected goals a game and allow 1.78 (Understat), and over ten games they hit the target 2.9 times a match. Lugano beat Red Star Belgrade 3:2 at home on matchday one, are eighth in the Conference League table and come in on five straight wins, with league wins such as 4:0 against Luzern and 4:1 against St Gallen (Sports Mole). Lugano have had seven days to rest; Getafe played on Monday and travel to Athletic Club on Sunday.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Getafe vs Lugano team news
Getafe without five injured players, Carvajal not registered; Lugano miss only Cassano.
Getafe
- OutChristantus UcheInjured
- OutIván AzónInjured
- OutOrel MangalaInjured
- OutJuanmiInjured
- OutZaid RomeroInjured
- OutDani CarvajalNot registered for the league phase
Lugano
- OutClaudio CassanoInjured
TacticsGetafe are without Orel Mangala, Juanmi, Zaid Romero, Iván Azón and Christantus Uche, all injured, and Dani Carvajal is not registered for the league phase (Sports Mole; Sportskeeda lists the same names). Losing Uche and Azón takes away most of the little attacking threat Bordalás had. Sports Mole expects Getafe to line up: Soria; García, Djené, Valou, Davinchi; Gudelj, Francho; Terrats, Martín, Satriano; Mayoral. Mattia Croci-Torti's Lugano are missing only Claudio Cassano and are otherwise in strong shape; Sports Mole's expected side is Von Ballmoos; Papadopoulos, Mai, Delcroix; Karimov, Bislimi, Grgić, Cimignani; Steffen, Ajeti, Dos Santos. Daniel Dos Santos has eight goals in 18 games this season and Albian Ajeti three in eight. Official line-ups come an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Raphinha out for Getafe and Galatasaray: Barcelona lose the scorer of 12 of their 31 goals
Our take Barcelona win, but the 31 goals get tested
Carvajal to Getafe is official after a week on hold over LaLiga's salary limit
Our take A leader for Europe, not a 40-game right-back
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Getafe vs Lugano?
Both previews with a score expect one or two goals in total.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Getafe 1:1 Lugano |
| Sportskeeda | Getafe 1:0 Lugano, under 2.5 goals |
| The Stats Zone | Lugano or draw |
Our positionWe share Sports Mole's 1:1 and Sportskeeda's under 2.5. The previews disagree on the winner, which fits our view that this is a game for few goals rather than a clear result.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Getafe vs Lugano predicted score
Bordalás closes the game, Lugano struggle to break the block.
Bordalás builds his team to keep chances to a minimum: a compact block, fouls in midfield, set pieces and long balls to Mayoral. Without Uche and Azón, Getafe's own attack is thin, so their goal is most likely to come from a dead ball. Lugano have the more confident attack, but away in Spain against a deep, physical block we expect them to be careful and play for a point that keeps them in the top part of the table. 1:1 is our main score; 1:0 is the alternative. Under 3.5 comes in with any score of three goals or fewer, 2:1 and 1:1 included; it loses only with four goals or more.
- Predicted score
- 1:1
- Alternative
- 1:0
Your score
GET
LUG
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Getafe vs Lugano pick: Under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Bordalás's teams are built to keep a game short of chances: in Getafe's last ten matches only two had more than two goals. With Uche and Azón injured, the attack that produced 0.81 expected goals a game in LaLiga is weaker still. Lugano are in form, but away in Spain, against a dense block, we expect a cautious game from them as well. We keep it as analysis because Lugano's scoring run and Getafe's injury list leave room for a 2:1.
Our probability80–83%
Our pickUnder 3.5 goals
Leg odds1.26
Main scenario1:1
- Wins with
- 1:01:12:12:00:00:1…
- Loses with
- 2:23:13:24:04:12:3…
- Our scenario
- 1:1alternative 1:0
What would change our mind Before kick-off, nothing short of a very different Getafe line-up would change it; in the game, an early goal would open it up.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe win | 1.88 | 53.2% |
| Draw | 3.36 | 29.8% |
| Lugano win | 4.15 | 24.1% |
| Getafe or draw | 1.21 | 82.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.13 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 57.5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.89 | 52.9% |
| Both teams not to score | 1.83 | 54.6% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.26 | 79.4% |
Odds snapshot 22 OCT 11:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why it could open up.
- Lugano score a lot: 3:2 against Red Star, 4:0 against Luzern and 4:1 against St Gallen (Sports Mole).
- Getafe have five players injured and their defence may not hold for 90 minutes.
- Getafe played on Monday and Lugano have had a week off, so the home side may tire late.
- An early goal would force Getafe to come out, and the game would change.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Under 3.5 goals is one leg of our double No. 141. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.63, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 141 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
- Prediction updated · now a bet leg: Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, in the double with Juventus v Rennes (Rennes +2.25) (earlier call: under 2.5, analysis only)
No. 12 · After the match
After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.
Read next
- Our betRennes +2.25 + Getafe v Lugano under 3.5
- Same kick-offJuventus vs Rennes prediction
- Conference League, matchday oneTwente vs Thun prediction
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.