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Double · No. 135 · 22 OCTPending

OFI vs Leverkusen + Lincoln vs Twente

  1. 01OFI vs LeverkusenLeverkusen win1.21
  2. 02Lincoln vs TwenteTwente win1.20
Total odds
1.45
Stake
2.00 units
Our estimate
62–65%
Published 22 OCT 06:21
Odds: average of 23 popular bookmakers, 22 OCT 06:2418+Play responsibly
Why this betA two-unit double for Thursday's European nights: Bayer Leverkusen to win at OFI Crete in the Europa League and Twente to win at Lincoln Red Imps in Gibraltar in the Conference League. Leverkusen have won five in a row and OFI have lost three; Twente meet the Gibraltar champions, who won two of their last ten games. Our main scores are 0:2 in both.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Europa League · 22 OCT · 17:45 UK

OFI vs Leverkusen

Leverkusen win1.21
Why this pickLeverkusen have won five games in a row by 14 goals to 4 and, over their last ten, land 7.2 shots on target a game against 3.4 allowed. OFI have lost three in a row, conceded seven in their last two and have 37% of the shots on target in their matches. Kofane, Terrier, Ben Seghir and Doué are out in one preview, but Schick, Diaby and Maza remain, and all five previews we found back an away win. Our score is 0:2.
Predicted score · alt 1:2
0:2
Our estimate · Leverkusen win
79–81%

Form · OFI 4 from 15. Leverkusen 15 from 15.

OFI4 pts
  • Lossvs Kalamata3:4
  • Lossvs Rennes1:2
  • Lossvs AEK Athens0:3
  • Drawvs Asteras Tripoli2:2
  • Winvs TSG Hoffenheim2:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.20
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Leverkusen15 pts
  • Winvs SC Freiburg2:1
  • Winvs Lech Poznań4:0
  • Winvs Mainz4:3
  • Winvs RB Leipzig2:0
  • Winvs NK Celje2:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%

Lineups · Expected

  • OFI
  • OutMarinakisUnavailable (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
  • OutLeya IsekaUnavailable (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
  • OutSielisUnavailable (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
  • Leverkusen
  • OutChristian KofaneMuscle injury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
  • OutMartin TerrierHamstring injury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
  • OutEliesse Ben SeghirMuscle injury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
  • OutGuela DouéUnavailable (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
  • DoubtMontrell CulbreathDoubtful (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
  • OutHofmannNot registered for the Europa League (one preview)
  • OutBonifaceNot registered for the Europa League (one preview)

What others predict · Consensus 5 of 5

Our positionWe agree with all five on the winner, and with Sports Mole and Sportskeeda on the score: 0:2.

Scenario & score

Leverkusen keep the ball, OFI sit deep. Leverkusen will have the ball and the territory: they take 20 shots a game over their last ten, OFI take nine and face 17. OFI will defend deep and look for set pieces and breaks, the way they beat Hoffenheim 2:0 here in September. Leverkusen still have Schick, Diaby and Maza without the injured attackers. 0:2 is our main score and 1:2 the alternative. Any Leverkusen win takes this leg, by one goal or by three; a draw, such as 1:1 after an early OFI goal, or an OFI win loses it.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Four attacking players are missing for Leverkusen in one preview: Kofane, Terrier, Ben Seghir and Doué.
  2. 02OFI already beat Hoffenheim 2:0 at the Pankritio in this Europa League.
  3. 03Leverkusen play at Hoffenheim on Sunday, three days later, so some rotation is possible.
  4. 04OFI score at home: three at Kalamata and two against Asteras in their last league games.
Key factLeverkusen beat Freiburg 2:1 on Sunday after winning 4:0 at Lech Poznań in the Europa League, 4:3 at Mainz, 2:0 against RB Leipzig and 2:0 against Celje: five wins, 14 goals for and 4 against (ESPN). Over ten games they are 7-2-1 with 27 goals for and 10 against, and land 7.2 shots on target a game against 3.4 allowed, 68% of the shots on target in their matches. In the Bundesliga they create 2.43 expected goals a game and allow 1.13 (Understat). OFI lost 3:4 at Kalamata on Sunday, 1:2 at Rennes and 0:3 at AEK Athens, after a 2:2 with Asteras Tripoli and a 2:0 home win over Hoffenheim in the Europa League. Over ten games OFI have 37% of the shots on target, 3.4 a game for and 5.8 against, and they have conceded seven goals in their last two.
Full match analysis
Leg 2 · Football · Europe · Conference League · 22 OCT · 20:00 UK

Lincoln vs Twente

Twente win1.20
Why this pickTwente are 6-2-2 over ten games and land 7.1 shots on target a game against 3.3 allowed. Lincoln are 2-3-5 in that run, lost 0:2 at home to Larne in qualifying and 1:2 at Brann last week, and faced 9.5 shots on target a game in the matches with shot data. Twente play at AZ on Sunday, so rotation is likely, and we found no team news for either side; every preview with a pick backs Twente. Our score is 0:2.
Predicted score · alt 1:3
0:2
Our estimate · Twente win
78–80%

Form · Lincoln 4 from 15. Twente 10 from 15.

Lincoln4 pts
  • Lossvs SK Brann1:2
  • Winvs Larne3:0
  • Lossvs Larne0:2
  • Lossvs Omonia Nicosia0:1
  • Drawvs Omonia Nicosia1:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.00
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.20
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Twente10 pts
  • Lossvs FC Utrecht1:2
  • Winvs FC Thun1:0
  • Drawvs Fortuna Sittard1:1
  • Winvs PSV Eindhoven3:2
  • Winvs ADO Den Haag2:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%

Lineups · Expected

  • Lincoln
  • No absences reported.
  • Twente
  • No absences reported.

What others predict · Consensus 4 of 4

Our positionWe agree on the winner and with Sportskeeda's 0:2. The previews are thin: only The Stats Zone gives a full analysis in English, and a French preview on Pensebet expects both teams to score.

Scenario & score

Twente break down a low block, Lincoln wait for a counter. Lincoln will defend deep, as they did in Bergen, and Twente will have most of the ball: they take 21 shots a game over their last ten, Lincoln face 25 in the matches with shots recorded. The risk is a slow night in which Twente cannot open a packed defence, as in their 1:0 against Thun. We expect Twente to score before half-time and Lincoln to tire in the second half. 0:2 is our main score and 1:3 the alternative. Any Twente win takes this leg; a draw such as 1:1 or a Lincoln win loses it.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Twente play at AZ three days later and may rotate after a long flight to Gibraltar.
  2. 02Twente scored only once in each of their last two games, 1:2 against Utrecht and 1:0 against Thun.
  3. 03We found no team news for either side, so the line-ups are unknown until an hour before kick-off.
  4. 04Lincoln have had seven days of rest, Twente four.
Key factTwente lost 1:2 at home to Utrecht on Sunday, a defeat The Stats Zone says ended a long unbeaten run; before that they beat Thun 1:0 in the Conference League, drew 1:1 at Fortuna Sittard and beat PSV 3:2 and ADO Den Haag 2:0 (ESPN). Over ten games they are 6-2-2 with 19 goals for and 10 against, and land 7.1 shots on target a game against 3.3 allowed, 68% of the shots on target in their matches. Lincoln Red Imps lost 1:2 at Brann in Bergen on 15 October, where The Stats Zone says they defended well; in qualifying they lost 0:2 at home to Larne before winning the return 3:0 after extra time, and went out to Omonia after 1:1 and 0:1. Over ten games Lincoln are 2-3-5 with 10 goals for and 15 against, with 21% of the shots on target in the matches where shots were recorded.
Full match analysis