LincolnvsTwente Lincoln Red Imps vs FC Twente · prediction
Who will win Lincoln vs Twente?
Our Lincoln Red Imps vs Twente prediction is a Twente win, most likely 0:2, at the Europa Point Stadium in Gibraltar on Thursday (20:00 UK, 21:00 in Gibraltar). In the two of their last ten matches with shot data (ESPN), the Gibraltar champions landed 2.5 shots on target a game and faced 9.5; over ten games Twente land 7.1 and allow 3.3. Lincoln lost 1:2 at Brann in their Conference League opener a week ago, Twente beat Thun 1:0 at home. A Twente win is one leg of our double tonight, with Bayer Leverkusen to win at OFI Crete.
- Predicted score · alt 1:3
- 0:2
- Our estimate
- 78–80%
- Market
- Twente win
- Our bet
- Double No. 135 · total odds 1.45
- Leg odds
- 1.20
Lincoln vs Twente at a glance
| Match | Lincoln Red Imps vs FC Twente |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Conference League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Gibraltar |
| Venue | Europa Point Stadium, Gibraltar |
| Our pick | Twente win · 1.20 · Double No. 135 · total odds 1.45 |
| Our estimate | 78–80% |
| Predicted score | 0:2 |
| Main reason | We back Twente because the gap in class is huge and the numbers show it: in the matches with shot data Lincoln faced 9.5 shots on target a game and landed 2.5, and in ten games they won only twice, while Twente land more than twice as many as they allow. |
Lincoln vs Twente: recent form
Lincoln 4 from 15. Twente 10 from 15.
- Lossvs SK Brann1:2
- Winvs Larne3:0
- Lossvs Larne0:2
- Lossvs Omonia Nicosia0:1
- Drawvs Omonia Nicosia1:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
- Lossvs FC Utrecht1:2
- Winvs FC Thun1:0
- Drawvs Fortuna Sittard1:1
- Winvs PSV Eindhoven3:2
- Winvs ADO Den Haag2:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Lincoln vs Twente team news
No team news found for Lincoln or Twente.
No absences reported.
No absences reported.
Who do others back in Lincoln vs Twente?
Every preview with a pick sees a Twente win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| The Stats Zone | Twente to win | Same side |
| Sportskeeda | Lincoln Red Imps 0:2 Twente | Same side |
| liga.id | Twente to win | Same side |
| Daily Sports | Twente to win | Same side |
Lincoln vs Twente predicted score
Twente break down a low block, Lincoln wait for a counter.
Lincoln will defend deep, as they did in Bergen, and Twente will have most of the ball: they take 21 shots a game over their last ten, Lincoln face 25 in the matches with shots recorded. The risk is a slow night in which Twente cannot open a packed defence, as in their 1:0 against Thun. We expect Twente to score before half-time and Lincoln to tire in the second half. 0:2 is our main score and 1:3 the alternative. Any Twente win takes this leg; a draw such as 1:1 or a Lincoln win loses it.
- Predicted score
- 0:2
- Alternative
- 1:3
Our Lincoln vs Twente pick: Twente win
Twente win: why this pick wins
We back Twente because the gap in class is huge and the numbers show it: in the matches with shot data Lincoln faced 9.5 shots on target a game and landed 2.5, and in ten games they won only twice, while Twente land more than twice as many as they allow. Even a rotated Twente side is stronger than the Lincoln team that lost 0:2 at home to Larne in qualifying. This is the leg with less information, so we pair it with Leverkusen, a leg from a top league with five previews behind it. We expect Twente to lead at the break and see the game out calmly.
- Our scenario
- 0:2alternative 1:3
What would change our mind If Twente's line-up is known before we publish and shows six or more changes, we would no longer back this leg.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 11.57 | 8.6% |
| Draw | 6.28 | 15.9% |
| Twente win | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Twente or draw | 1.01 | 99% |
| Both teams to score | 1.89 | 52.9% |
| Both teams not to score | 1.83 | 54.6% |
Odds snapshot 22 OCT 07:24 · no bookmaker names
What could beat our pick?
Why Lincoln could hold Twente.
- Twente play at AZ three days later and may rotate after a long flight to Gibraltar.
- Twente scored only once in each of their last two games, 1:2 against Utrecht and 1:0 against Thun.
- We found no team news for either side, so the line-ups are unknown until an hour before kick-off.
- Lincoln have had seven days of rest, Twente four.
Double
Twente win is one leg of our double No. 135. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.45, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 135 →- Prediction published · our bet: Twente win at 1.20, a leg of the double with OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen (Leverkusen to win)
After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.
Read next
- Our betLeverkusen to win + Twente to win
- Same betOFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
- Last weekTwente vs Thun prediction
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.