OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction and odds

No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win OFI vs Leverkusen?

Our OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction is a Leverkusen win, most likely 0:2, at the Pankritio Stadium in Heraklion on Thursday (17:45 UK, 19:45 in Crete). Leverkusen have six points from two Europa League games and have won five matches in a row with 14 goals for and 4 against; OFI have lost three in a row, 0:3 at AEK Athens, 1:2 at Rennes and 3:4 at Kalamata on Sunday. A Leverkusen win is one leg of our double tonight, with Twente to win in Gibraltar.

Predicted score · alt 1:2: 0:2
Our estimate: 79–81%

Leverkusen win · odds 1.21Our estimate, not a guarantee

Why this call18+Play responsibly

Market: Leverkusen win
Our bet: Double No. 135 · total odds 1.45
Leg odds: 1.21

OFI vs Leverkusen at a glance

Match	OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen
Competition	UEFA Europa League · League phase, matchday 3
Kick-off	22 OCT · 17:45 UK · 19:45 Heraklion
Venue	Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion
Our pick	Leverkusen win · 1.21 · Double No. 135 · total odds 1.45
Our estimate	79–81%
Predicted score	0:2
Main reason	We back Leverkusen because the gap shows in every number of the last ten games: they land twice as many shots on target as their opponents, OFI land barely a third of the shots on target in their matches.

No. 04 · Form

OFI vs Leverkusen: recent form

OFI 4 from 15. Leverkusen 15 from 15.

OFI4 pts

Lossvs Kalamata3:4
Lossvs Rennes1:2
Lossvs AEK Athens0:3
Drawvs Asteras Tripoli2:2
Winvs TSG Hoffenheim2:0

: 1.60
: 2.20
: 80%
: 60%

Leverkusen15 pts

Winvs SC Freiburg2:1
Winvs Lech Poznań4:0
Winvs Mainz4:3
Winvs RB Leipzig2:0
Winvs NK Celje2:0

: 2.80
: 0.80
: 60%
: 40%

Key factLeverkusen beat Freiburg 2:1 on Sunday after winning 4:0 at Lech Poznań in the Europa League, 4:3 at Mainz, 2:0 against RB Leipzig and 2:0 against Celje: five wins, 14 goals for and 4 against (ESPN). Over ten games they are 7-2-1 with 27 goals for and 10 against, and land 7.2 shots on target a game against 3.4 allowed, 68% of the shots on target in their matches. In the Bundesliga they create 2.43 expected goals a game and allow 1.13 (Understat). OFI lost 3:4 at Kalamata on Sunday, 1:2 at Rennes and 0:3 at AEK Athens, after a 2:2 with Asteras Tripoli and a 2:0 home win over Hoffenheim in the Europa League. Over ten games OFI have 37% of the shots on target, 3.4 a game for and 5.8 against, and they have conceded seven goals in their last two.

No. 05 · LineupsExpected

OFI vs Leverkusen team news

Leverkusen without Kofane, Terrier, Ben Seghir and Doué in one preview.

OFI

OutMarinakisUnavailable (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
OutLeya IsekaUnavailable (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
OutSielisUnavailable (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)

Leverkusen

OutChristian KofaneMuscle injury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
OutMartin TerrierHamstring injury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
OutEliesse Ben SeghirMuscle injury (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
OutGuela DouéUnavailable (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
DoubtMontrell CulbreathDoubtful (one preview, not confirmed by a second source)
OutHofmannNot registered for the Europa League (one preview)
OutBonifaceNot registered for the Europa League (one preview)

TacticsSports Mole lists Christian Kofane (muscle), Martin Terrier (hamstring), Eliesse Ben Seghir (muscle) and Guela Doué as out for Leverkusen, Montrell Culbreath as a doubt, and Hofmann and Boniface as not registered for the Europa League. We found no second source for that list, so we treat it as unconfirmed; it costs Leverkusen depth in attack, and we count it as a risk, not a reason to drop the pick. The same preview expects Flekken in goal behind Quansah, Tapsoba, Medina and Gutiérrez, Andrich and García in midfield, Diaby, Maza and Moreira behind Patrik Schick. For OFI it lists Marinakis, Leya Iseka and Sielis as out, also from one source, so we do not count it for Leverkusen. Carles Martínez coaches Leverkusen and Christos Kontis OFI (Sports Mole). Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 5 of 5

Who do others back in OFI vs Leverkusen?

All five previews we found back Leverkusen.

Source	Pick	Versus us
Sports Mole	OFI Crete 0:2 Bayer Leverkusen	Same side
Sportskeeda	OFI Crete 0:2 Bayer Leverkusen	Same side
Football Whispers	OFI Crete 0:3 Bayer Leverkusen	Same side
The Stats Zone	Leverkusen −1 handicap	Same side
Squawka	Leverkusen to win and keep a clean sheet	Same side

Our positionWe agree with all five on the winner, and with Sports Mole and Sportskeeda on the score: 0:2.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

OFI vs Leverkusen predicted score

Leverkusen keep the ball, OFI sit deep.

Leverkusen will have the ball and the territory: they take 20 shots a game over their last ten, OFI take nine and face 17. OFI will defend deep and look for set pieces and breaks, the way they beat Hoffenheim 2:0 here in September. Leverkusen still have Schick, Diaby and Maza without the injured attackers. 0:2 is our main score and 1:2 the alternative. Any Leverkusen win takes this leg, by one goal or by three; a draw, such as 1:1 after an early OFI goal, or an OFI win loses it.

Predicted score: 0:2
Alternative: 1:2

Your score

OFI0

B042

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our OFI vs Leverkusen pick: Leverkusen win

Leverkusen win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We back Leverkusen because the gap shows in every number of the last ten games: they land twice as many shots on target as their opponents, OFI land barely a third of the shots on target in their matches. Leverkusen have won five in a row by 14 goals to 4, while OFI have lost three in a row and conceded seven in the last two. Even without several attacking players Leverkusen keep Schick, Diaby and Maza, and every preview we found expects an away win. We expect Leverkusen to score before the break and control the second half.

Our probability79–81%

Our pickLeverkusen win

Leg odds1.21

Main scenario0:2

Our scenario: 0:2alternative 1:2

What would change our mind If Leverkusen start without Schick and with five or more changes from the predicted line-up, we would no longer back this leg.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
OFI win	11.33	8.8%
Draw	6.87	14.6%
Leverkusen win	1.21	82.6%
Leverkusen or draw	1.03	97.1%
Both teams to score	1.78	56.2%
Both teams not to score	1.97	50.8%

Odds snapshot 22 OCT 08:24 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why OFI could take something in Heraklion.

Four attacking players are missing for Leverkusen in one preview: Kofane, Terrier, Ben Seghir and Doué.
OFI already beat Hoffenheim 2:0 at the Pankritio in this Europa League.
Leverkusen play at Hoffenheim on Sunday, three days later, so some rotation is possible.
OFI score at home: three at Kalamata and two against Asteras in their last league games.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Leverkusen win is one leg of our double No. 135. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.45, 2.00 units.

Leg 1 · this match: Leverkusen win @ 1.21
Leg 2: Twente win @ 1.20
Total odds: 1.45 · 2.00 units
Published: 22 OCT 08:21

Open double No. 135 →

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

08:21Prediction published · our bet: Leverkusen win at 1.21, a leg of the double with Lincoln Red Imps vs Twente (Twente to win)

No. 12 · After the match

After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

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