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Football · South America · Copa Libertadores · Semi-final, first leg · La Plata

EstudiantesvsFlamengo Estudiantes de La Plata vs Flamengo · prediction

Score
0:0
Date
15 OCT
City
La Plata
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Estudiantes vs Flamengo?

Our Estudiantes vs Flamengo prediction is under 2.5 goals in the Copa Libertadores semi-final first leg, most likely 1:1 in La Plata. Alexander Medina's Estudiantes de La Plata host Leonardo Jardim's Flamengo on Thursday night; the return leg is on 22 October. The teams met twice in this season's group stage, 1:1 in La Plata and 1:0 to Flamengo in Rio, and all four of their meetings since 2025 were decided by one goal or none. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 0:1
1:1
Our estimate
60–65%
Under 2.5 goals · odds 1.49Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Under 2.5 goals
Price now
1.49

Estudiantes vs Flamengo at a glance

MatchEstudiantes de La Plata vs Flamengo
CompetitionCONMEBOL Libertadores 2026 · Semi-final, first leg
Kick-off16 OCT · 01:30 UK · 21:30 La Plata
VenueEstadio Jorge Luis Hirschi (UNO), La Plata
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals · 1.49 · analysis only
Our estimate60–65%
Predicted score1:1
Main reasonWe think this first leg stays tight.
No. 04 · Form

Estudiantes vs Flamengo: recent form

Estudiantes 7 from 15. Flamengo 11 from 15.

Estudiantes7 pts
  • Drawvs Central Córdoba2:2
  • Winvs Gimnasia y Esgrima (Mendoza)3:0
  • Lossvs Platense0:1
  • Lossvs Lanús1:2
  • Winvs Corinthians1:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Flamengo11 pts
  • Winvs Fluminense1:0
  • Drawvs Santos2:2
  • Winvs Red Bull Bragantino2:1
  • Drawvs Independiente del Valle1:1
  • Winvs Corinthians2:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Key factEstudiantes drew 2:2 at Central Córdoba on Saturday after a 3:0 win over Gimnasia y Esgrima (Mendoza), a cup defeat 0:1 to Platense and 1:2 at Lanús; over ten games they are 4-3-3, 13:9. In the Libertadores they knocked out Universidad Católica (1:1 at home, 3:0 in Santiago) and Corinthians (1:1 at home, 1:0 away). Flamengo beat Fluminense 1:0 on Sunday with a Jorge Carrascal goal and are unbeaten in nine (Sports Mole); over ten games they are 7-2-1, 17:7, with five clean sheets, and they scored in all ten. They knocked out Independiente del Valle 3:1 on aggregate. Each side's games went over 2.5 goals in five of its last ten.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Estudiantes vs Flamengo team news

Estudiantes lose two centre-backs to suspension; Flamengo miss Arrascaeta and Jorginho.

Estudiantes
  • OutTomás PalaciosSuspended
  • OutLeandro González PirezSuspended
  • OutGabriel NevesUnavailable
  • OutJalil ElíasUnavailable
  • DoubtEric MezaFitness doubt
  • DoubtAlexis CastroLower-back problem, expected to be available
Flamengo
  • OutJorginhoSuspended
  • OutGiorgian de ArrascaetaWrist surgery
  • OutDaniloJaw fractures
  • DoubtAyrton LucasNot expected to travel
  • DoubtEvertton AraújoNot expected to travel
TacticsSports Mole reports Tomás Palacios and Leandro González Pirez suspended for Estudiantes, with Gabriel Neves and Jalil Elías unavailable, Eric Meza a doubt, and Alexis Castro, scorer of the winner in São Paulo against Corinthians, set to start despite a lower-back problem. Its probable Estudiantes XI has Muslera in goal, Rojo in defence and Guido Carrillo up front. For Flamengo, Jorginho is suspended after a red card, Giorgian de Arrascaeta is out after wrist surgery and Danilo after two jaw fractures, while Ayrton Lucas and Evertton Araújo are not expected to travel. Sports Mole expects Rossi in goal, Saúl Ñíguez and Paquetá in midfield and Pedro up front. We found these absences in one detailed preview only, and no line-up had been confirmed when we published.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 3

Who do others back in Estudiantes vs Flamengo?

The previews we read split on the winner but expect a low score.

SourcePick
Sports Mole1:1
SportsgamblerEstudiantes +0.25, score 1:0
Gainblers (BetMines model)Under 2.5 goals 58%, Flamengo 42%
Our positionThree sources, three different winners, but all three point to few goals. That is our read as well: a cautious first leg with the return still to come.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Estudiantes vs Flamengo predicted score

A careful first leg: Flamengo keep the ball, Estudiantes stay compact.

Flamengo have taken 15.3 shots a game over ten games and conceded only 7 goals; Estudiantes allow 3.1 shots on target a game and, according to Sports Mole, conceded just three shots from inside the box in the first leg against Corinthians. Without Arrascaeta and Jorginho, Flamengo lose their main creator and a midfield organiser, and Estudiantes, without two centre-backs, have every reason not to open up. 1:1 is our main score; 0:1 to Flamengo is the alternative. Under 2.5 goals wins with 0:0, 1:0, 0:1, 1:1, 2:0 or 0:2 and loses with 2:1, 1:2, 2:2 or any score with three goals or more.

Predicted score
1:1
Alternative
0:1
Your score
EST1
FLA1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Estudiantes vs Flamengo pick: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think this first leg stays tight. Three of the four meetings since 2025 had two goals or fewer and none was won by more than a goal, both teams have a return leg a week later, and Flamengo travel without Arrascaeta and Jorginho. Flamengo should score, which is why 1:1 rather than 0:0 is our main score, but Estudiantes rarely give up clear chances at home. Both our scores, 1:1 and 0:1, hold under 2.5 goals.

Our probability60–65%
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals
Odds1.49
Main scenario1:1
Wins with
1:01:12:00:00:10:2…
Loses with
2:11:22:23:03:13:2…
Our scenario
1:1alternative 0:1

What would change our mind An early goal inside the first 20 minutes, forcing the other side to open up; or a full-strength Estudiantes defence confirmed: then 0:1 or 1:0 becomes our main score.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Estudiantes win3.5328.3%
Draw2.9833.6%
Flamengo win2.1546.5%
Estudiantes or draw1.6261.7%
Flamengo or draw1.2580%
Under 2.5 goals1.4967.1%
Over 2.5 goals2.5539.2%

Odds snapshot 15 OCT 01:22 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why there could be three goals or more.

  1. Flamengo scored in every one of their last ten games, and Estudiantes' back line is missing Palacios and González Pirez.
  2. Estudiantes conceded five goals in their last five games, including 2:2 at Central Córdoba on Saturday.
  3. Half of each side's last ten games went over 2.5 goals, and the 2025 quarter-final first leg ended 2:1.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: under 2.5 goals · analysis only. We expect 1:1, but Flamengo score in every game, Estudiantes lose two centre-backs and no line-up was confirmed, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.49
Published
15 OCT 02:45
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:1Under 2.5 goals at 1.49
Happened
0:0Draw

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.