Olympiacos lose Fournier, Montero is a doubt, Dorsey trains alone before Fenerbahçe
Our take The Dorsey call matters more than the injuries
Basketball · Europe · EuroLeague · Regular season, round 6 · Barcelona
BarcelonavsOlympiacos FC Barcelona vs Olympiacos Piraeus · basketball prediction
Score
100:105
Date · UK
16 OCT
Local time
20:30 · 16 OCT
City
Barcelona
Status
Full time
BAR100:105OLYFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Barcelona vs Olympiacos?
Our Barcelona vs Olympiacos prediction: Olympiacos win at the Palau Blaugrana, 80:85. Olympiacos Piraeus are 4-1 after five EuroLeague rounds, with four of those games on the road, and finished 26-12 last season. FC Barcelona are 3-2 and went 21-17. Our rating and the odds both make Olympiacos favourites, the odds by a little more. Our pick is Olympiacos to win, as analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 84:81
- 80:85
- Our estimate
- 54–59%
- Market
- Olympiacos win
- Price now
- 1.53
Barcelona vs Olympiacos at a glance
| Match | FC Barcelona vs Olympiacos Piraeus |
|---|---|
| Competition | EuroLeague · Regular season, round 6 |
| Kick-off | 16 OCT · 19:30 UK |
| Venue | Palau Blaugrana, Barcelona |
| Our pick | Olympiacos win · 1.53 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 54–59% |
| Predicted score | 80:85 |
| Main reason | Olympiacos should win this game: they were 26-12 last season against Barcelona's 21-17, they are 4-1 now, and they have already won three times away from home, in Vitoria, Kaunas and Valencia. |
No. 04 · Form
Barcelona vs Olympiacos: recent form
Barcelona 3-2 in their last 5. Olympiacos 4-1.
- Barcelona
- Beat Maccabi Tel Aviv 90:87 at home on Tue 13 Oct · second EuroLeague game of a double-round week · no travel
- Olympiacos
- Won 102:97 in Valencia on Tue 13 Oct · second EuroLeague game of a double-round week · 300 km trip to Barcelona
Barcelona3-2
- Winvs Maccabi Tel Aviv90:87
- Lossvs Zalgiris81:88
- Winvs Besiktas95:82
- Lossvs Dubai Basketball87:94
- Winvs Anadolu Efes89:82
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 88.4
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 86.6
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 175.0
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +1.8
Olympiacos4-1
- Winvs Valencia102:97
- Winvs Anadolu Efes89:66
- Lossvs Virtus Bologna94:96
- Winvs Zalgiris93:91
- Winvs Baskonia106:89
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 96.8
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 87.8
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 184.6
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +9.0
Key factOlympiacos have played four of their five games away and won three of them: 106:89 in Vitoria against Baskonia, 93:91 in Kaunas and 102:97 in Valencia on Tuesday. Their only defeat was 94:96 at Virtus Bologna, and at home they beat Anadolu Efes 89:66. Barcelona beat Anadolu Efes 89:82 and Maccabi Tel Aviv 90:87 at home and won 95:82 at Besiktas, but lost 87:94 in Dubai and 81:88 at home to Zalgiris.
| EuroLeague so far | BAR | OLY |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Points for per game | 88.4 | 96.8 |
| Points against per game | 86.6 | 87.8 |
| Point difference per game | +1.8 | +9.0 |
| Last season | BAR | OLY |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 21-17 | 26-12 |
| Point difference per game | +0.9 | +6.5 |
EuroLeague 2026-27, 5 games each, and 2025-26 · Official EuroLeague results; our calculations
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
Barcelona vs Olympiacos injury report
Team news not confirmed for either side.
Barcelona
No absences reported.
Olympiacos
No absences reported.
TacticsWe did not find a round 6 injury report from the EuroLeague or the clubs before publishing, so absences are not confirmed. Over the last five games Barcelona's minutes go to Joel Parra (25.2 a game), Kevin Punter (23.6, also their PIR leader at 18.4), Tyrese Martin (21.5) and Olek Balcerowski (20.0), with Justin Robinson leading in assists (3.0). Olympiacos lean on Jean Montero (24.6 minutes, PIR 20.8), Evan Fournier (24.5) and Sasha Vezenkov (23.8), with Codi Miller-McIntyre running the offence (5.0 assists). Both teams played on Tuesday, the second game of a double-round week; Olympiacos travel 300 km from Valencia.
In the news
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No. 07 · Scenario & score
Barcelona vs Olympiacos predicted score
Olympiacos win a close game on the road.
80:85 to Olympiacos is our main score. Last season still carries two thirds of our rating five rounds in: Olympiacos were 6.1 points a game better than an average EuroLeague team after adjusting for opponent and venue, Barcelona 0.8. This season Olympiacos are +9.0 a game and Barcelona +1.8. Home court is worth about 3.8 points, which keeps Barcelona in the game but not ahead of it. 84:81 is the alternative: Punter and Parra carry the scoring at the Palau, as Barcelona did in the 98:85 home win over Olympiacos last December, and the trip from Valencia at the end of a double-round week weighs on the visitors.
- Predicted score
- 80:85
- Alternative
- 84:81
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Barcelona vs Olympiacos pick: Olympiacos win
Olympiacos win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Olympiacos should win this game: they were 26-12 last season against Barcelona's 21-17, they are 4-1 now, and they have already won three times away from home, in Vitoria, Kaunas and Valencia. Their last ten EuroLeague games read 9-1. Barcelona's start is mixed, with all three home games decided by seven points or fewer, including the defeat to Zalgiris. We expect a tight game that Olympiacos close out, 80:85.
Our probability54–59%
Our pickOlympiacos win
Odds1.53
Main scenario80:85
- Our scenario
- 80:85alternative 84:81
What would change our mind A confirmed absence for Montero, Fournier or Vezenkov would turn us towards Barcelona at home. A confirmed absence for Punter or Parra would make Olympiacos clearer favourites than our 56%.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 2.55 | 39.2% |
| Olympiacos win | 1.53 | 65.4% |
Odds snapshot 16 OCT 05:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Barcelona won this fixture 98:85 at the Palau last season; the return game in Piraeus went 87:75 to Olympiacos, so each side won at home.
- Our rating gives Olympiacos only 56%, close to a coin flip, and five games are too few for this season's numbers to count for much.
- Without a confirmed injury report, a late absence on either side could change the game.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Olympiacos win at 1.53 · analysis only. We expect 80:85, but our rating gives Olympiacos only 56% and team news is not confirmed, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Olympiacos win, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 80:85Olympiacos win at 1.53
- Happened
- 100:105Olympiacos win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.