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Basketball · Europe · EuroLeague · Regular season, round 4 · Barcelona

BarcelonavsZalgiris FC Barcelona vs Zalgiris Kaunas · basketball prediction

Score
81:88
Date · UK
9 OCT
Local time
20:30 · 9 OCT
City
Barcelona
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Barcelona vs Zalgiris?

FC Barcelona host Zalgiris Kaunas at the Palau Blaugrana, and the odds make Barcelona favourites by only 1.5 to 2 points. Barcelona have started better (2-1, about 121 points per 100 possessions against 112), but Justin Minaya and Yoan Makoundou are out and Josh Nebo and Tosan Evbuomwan will only be cleared on match day. Zalgiris beat Barcelona twice last season, by 15 and 12, though they are still without Nigel Williams-Goss. Our prediction is 84:81 to Barcelona; our pick is Zalgiris +5.5, without a bet.

Predicted score · alt 89:79
84:81
Our estimate
60–64%
Zalgiris +5.5 · odds 1.50Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Zalgiris +5.5
Price now
1.50

Barcelona vs Zalgiris at a glance

MatchFC Barcelona vs Zalgiris Kaunas
CompetitionEuroLeague · Regular season, round 4
Kick-off9 OCT · 19:30 UK
VenuePalau Blaugrana, Barcelona
Our pickZalgiris +5.5 · 1.50 · analysis only
Our estimate60–64%
Predicted score84:81
Main reasonWe do not believe Barcelona, with half of their frontcourt in the treatment room, beat Zalgiris comfortably: the Lithuanians kept all three games this season within six points even without their point guard, and beat Barcelona twice last season.
No. 04 · Form

Barcelona vs Zalgiris: recent form

Barcelona 2-1 in their last 3. Zalgiris 1-2.

Barcelona
Last EuroLeague game won at Besiktas on Fri 2 Oct · first of four home games in eight days
Zalgiris
Last EuroLeague game lost in Paris on Thu 1 Oct · two EuroLeague games next week
Barcelona2-1
  • Winvs Besiktas95:82
  • Lossvs Dubai Basketball87:94
  • Winvs Anadolu Efes89:82
Points scored per game in these games.
90.3
Points allowed per game in these games.
86.0
Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
176.3
Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
+4.3
Zalgiris1-2
  • Lossvs Paris Basketball78:82
  • Lossvs Olympiacos91:93
  • Winvs Crvena Zvezda83:77
Points scored per game in these games.
84.0
Points allowed per game in these games.
84.0
Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
168.0
Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
0.0
Key factAll three Zalgiris games this season were decided by six points or fewer, two of them without their starting point guard. Last season Zalgiris finished 23-15 and Barcelona 21-17, and Zalgiris won 88:73 at the Palau.
EuroLeague so farBARZAL
Wins and losses.2-11-2
Points scored per game in these games.271252
Points allowed per game in these games.258252
Ratings & paceBARZAL
Points scored per 100 possessions. Higher is better.120.9111.6
Points allowed per 100 possessions. Lower is better.115.1111.6
Pace74.775.2
Four factorsBARZAL
eFG%58.052.3
Turnover %12.918.6
Share of their own misses a team rebounds.29.438.6
Free throws made per shot attempt: how often a team gets to the line.24.530.8

EuroLeague 2026-27, 3 games each · Our estimates from official EuroLeague box scores

No. 05 · Injury reportExpected

Barcelona vs Zalgiris injury report

Barcelona wait on Nebo and Evbuomwan; Zalgiris still without Williams-Goss.

Barcelona
  • OutYoan MakoundouLeft knee, rounds 1 to 6
  • OutJustin MinayaRight adductor, about ten days
  • QuestionableJosh NeboRight calf, back in team practice; decision on match day
  • QuestionableTosan EvbuomwanLeft shoulder, back in team practice; decision on match day
Zalgiris
  • OutNigel Williams-GossHamstring, injured in round 1
  • OutKaodirichi Akobundu-EhioguDid not travel, coach's decision
  • QuestionableSaben LeeHamstring, missed rounds 1 to 3; game-time decision
TacticsBarcelona are without Minaya (adductor, about ten days) and Makoundou (knee). Nebo (calf) and Evbuomwan (shoulder) trained with the group on Thursday; the club says the decision comes at the last minute, and coach Aleksander Sekulic gives both a good chance of playing. Zalgiris miss Williams-Goss (hamstring) and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu, who did not travel; Saben Lee, out for rounds 1 to 3, is a game-time decision (checked 05:15 UTC, 9 Oct).
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Barcelona vs Zalgiris?

The one preview with a score has Barcelona winning, but by five.

SourcePickVersus us
SportsgamblerBarcelona 86:81; their bet builder has Barcelona −1.5, their best bet is under 173.5Other side
Our positionWe also have Barcelona narrowly ahead, and their 86:81 sits right on the +5.5 line. That is why our pick is Zalgiris with the points, not to a Barcelona win.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Barcelona vs Zalgiris predicted score

A game for the last two minutes.

84:81 is our main score: Barcelona shoot better (58% effective field goal rate), Zalgiris answer on the offensive glass (38.6%) and stay in touch, as in all three of their games this season. 89:79 is the alternative if Nebo is back: Barcelona close the paint and Zalgiris, without Williams-Goss, give the ball away. A Zalgiris win, as in both meetings last season, is the third outcome. Zalgiris +5.5 wins in the main score and with a Zalgiris win, and loses in the alternative.

Predicted score
84:81
Alternative
89:79
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Barcelona vs Zalgiris pick: Zalgiris +5.5

Zalgiris +5.5: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We do not believe Barcelona, with half of their frontcourt in the treatment room, beat Zalgiris comfortably: the Lithuanians kept all three games this season within six points even without their point guard, and beat Barcelona twice last season. The likeliest finish is a game settled in the last two minutes. But Barcelona attack better at home, and if Nebo is back, Zalgiris may not hold the paint.

Our probability60–64%
Our pickZalgiris +5.5
Odds1.50
Main scenario84:81
Wins with
84:8178:7974:8178:7380:91…
Loses with
90:8192:8590:7788:71…
Our scenario
84:81alternative 89:79

What would change our mind Nebo and Evbuomwan confirmed out and Saben Lee back for Zalgiris: then Zalgiris +5.5 would be close to a bet.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Barcelona win1.7457.5%
Zalgiris win2.0648.5%
Barcelona −1.51.8753.5%
Zalgiris +1.51.9351.8%
Zalgiris +3.51.6759.9%
Zalgiris +4.51.6261.7%
Zalgiris +5.51.5066.7%

Odds snapshot 9 OCT 10:37 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why our pick could go wrong.

  1. Nebo and Evbuomwan may both return, and then Barcelona are stronger than in the first three rounds.
  2. Zalgiris have no starting point guard and turn the ball over on 18.6% of possessions, against 12.9% for Barcelona.
  3. The only outside prediction (86:81) lands exactly on the +5.5 line.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Zalgiris +5.5 at 1.50. Analysis only: we are not sure enough about the result, because the handicap loses if Nebo returns and Barcelona win by ten.

Market
Zalgiris +5.5
Odds
1.50
Published
9 OCT 06:18
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · our pick Zalgiris +5.5, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
84:81Zalgiris +5.5 at 1.50
Happened
81:88Zalgiris win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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    FAQ

    What does Analysis mean?

    Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

    How do you choose a pick?

    We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

    Can a prediction change after publishing?

    No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.