Real Madrid say Deck's shoulder is worse than they thought. It already failed him in August
Our take Plan for weeks, not days
Basketball · Europe · EuroLeague · Regular season, round 5 · Milan
Olimpia MilanovsReal Madrid EA7 Emporio Armani Milan vs Real Madrid · basketball prediction
Score
89:98
Date · UK
13 OCT
Local time
20:30 · 13 OCT
City
Milan
Status
Full time
MIL89:98RMBFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Olimpia Milano vs Real Madrid?
Our Olimpia Milano vs Real Madrid prediction: Real win a close game, 84:80, and Milano stay inside the +5.5 handicap. Both clubs are 1-3 after four EuroLeague rounds, but Real lost all three road games by ten points or fewer, while Milano lost three games by 10 to 18 points. Real will have surgery on Gabriel Deck's shoulder and are still without Usman Garuba; Milano have Stefano Tonut back after a hand injury. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 76:88
- 80:84
- Our estimate
- 56–60%
- Market
- Olimpia Milano +5.5
- Price now
- 1.74
Olimpia Milano vs Real Madrid at a glance
| Match | EA7 Emporio Armani Milan vs Real Madrid |
|---|---|
| Competition | EuroLeague · Regular season, round 5 |
| Kick-off | 13 OCT · 19:30 UK |
| Venue | Unipol Forum, Milan |
| Our pick | Olimpia Milano +5.5 · 1.74 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 56–60% |
| Predicted score | 80:84 |
| Main reason | We think Real win, but by one or two possessions, not comfortably. |
No. 04 · Form
Olimpia Milano vs Real Madrid: recent form
Olimpia Milano 1-4 in their last 5. Real Madrid 1-4.
- Olimpia Milano
- Lost 79:97 to Maccabi on Thu 8 Oct, then beat Treviso 106:77 in the Italian league · hosts Dubai on Thursday
- Real Madrid
- Beat Partizan 86:76 on Thu 8 Oct, then won twice in the Spanish league · hosts ASVEL on Thursday
Olimpia Milano1-4
- Lossvs Maccabi Tel Aviv79:97
- Lossvs Baskonia76:86
- Winvs Virtus Bologna87:85
- Lossvs Partizan76:92
- Lossvs Olympiacos76:85
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 78.8
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 89.0
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 167.8
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −10.2
Real Madrid1-4
- Winvs Partizan86:76
- Lossvs Hapoel Tel Aviv98:102
- Lossvs Anadolu Efes84:94
- Lossvs Dubai77:78
- Lossvs Olympiacos85:92
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 86.0
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 88.4
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 174.4
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −2.4
Key factReal's three defeats all came away from Madrid, by 1, 10 and 4 points, and their only home game was an 86:76 win over Partizan. Milano concede 90 points a game, about 123 per 100 possessions, the weaker defence of the two. Real lead the EuroLeague head-to-head 22-6 and won the last meeting 106:77, but they lost on their last three visits to Milan.
| EuroLeague so far | MIL | RMB |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Points scored per game in these games. | 318 | 345 |
| Points allowed per game in these games. | 360 | 350 |
| Ratings & pace | MIL | RMB |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions. Higher is better. | 109.1 | 113.8 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions. Lower is better. | 123.1 | 114.0 |
| Pace | 73.0 | 76.3 |
| Four factors | MIL | RMB |
|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 50.4 | 52.6 |
| Turnover % | 15.6 | 14.1 |
| Share of their own misses a team rebounds. | 34.0 | 30.8 |
| Free throws made per shot attempt: how often a team gets to the line. | 30.0 | 27.3 |
EuroLeague 2026-27, 4 games each · Our estimates from official EuroLeague box scores
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
Olimpia Milano vs Real Madrid injury report
Deck needs shoulder surgery and Garuba is out; Tonut is back for Milano.
Olimpia Milano
- ProbableStefano TonutLeft hand contusion, missed round 4; played in the league win over Treviso on 11 Oct
Real Madrid
- OutGabriel DeckLeft shoulder dislocation, surgery in the coming days
- OutUsman GarubaAchilles, injured at the Final Four in May
TacticsReal Madrid said on 12 Oct that Gabriel Deck dislocated his left shoulder and will have surgery in the coming days, with no recovery timetable. Usman Garuba is still out with the Achilles injury from last May's Final Four. Coach Pedro Martínez also said he may rest players before a busy week, naming Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot. Stefano Tonut missed round 4 with a left hand contusion but played in Milano's 106:77 league win over Treviso, and local previews report no new injuries for Giuseppe Poeta's side. The official EuroLeague injury report could not be opened (checked 05:40 UTC, 13 Oct).
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Olimpia Milano vs Real Madrid?
The one preview with a score has Milano winning by a point.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsgambler | Milano 90:89; their main pick is Milano +4.5 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree that Milano stay close, but not on the winner: we have Real by four. That margin still fits inside Milano +5.5, and inside their +4.5 as well.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Olimpia Milano vs Real Madrid predicted score
Real win it late, Milano stay in touch.
80:84 is our main score: Walter Tavares controls the boards and Theo Maledon (14.8 points a game) pushes the pace, but Milano keep it close at home through Devon Hall and Marko Guduric. 76:88 is the alternative if Milano defend the way they have all season: Real pull away by 12. A Milano win, as on Real's last three visits, is the third outcome. Milano +5.5 wins in the main score and with a Milano win, and loses in the alternative.
- Predicted score
- 80:84
- Alternative
- 76:88
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Olimpia Milano vs Real Madrid pick: Olimpia Milano +5.5
Olimpia Milano +5.5: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Real win, but by one or two possessions, not comfortably. Both teams started 1-3, and Real have not convinced on the road: three defeats, all within ten points. Tavares and Maledon make Real stronger inside and in transition, so they are the side we expect to win. But Milano at home, with Tonut back, are the kind of opponent that keeps the score close until the last minutes.
Our probability56–60%
Our pickOlimpia Milano +5.5
Odds1.74
Main scenario80:84
- Wins with
- 80:8486:8488:8886:8074:7684:74…
- Loses with
- 74:8270:8476:94…
- Our scenario
- 80:84alternative 76:88
What would change our mind Another Milano starter ruled out before tip-off (Hall, Wright, Bolmaro or Alec Peters): then we would expect Real by six or more and drop Milano +5.5.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Olimpia Milano win | 2.61 | 38.3% |
| Real Madrid win | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Olimpia Milano +4.5 | 1.85 | 54.1% |
| Olimpia Milano +5.5 | 1.74 | 57.5% |
| Olimpia Milano +6.5 | 1.65 | 60.6% |
| Real Madrid −4.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% |
| Real Madrid −5.5 | 2.00 | 50% |
Odds snapshot 13 OCT 06:35 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Milano lost three of four games by 10, 16 and 18 points; their one win was by two.
- The odds make Real about four points better and see the depth of their bench, even without Deck.
- Milano allow about 123 points per 100 possessions, and Real score more than 86 a game.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Milano +5.5 · analysis only. We expect 80:84, but a Real win by six or more is very realistic, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Olimpia Milano +5.5, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 80:84Olimpia Milano +5.5 at 1.74
- Happened
- 89:98Real Madrid win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.