Olympiacos lose Fournier, Montero is a doubt, Dorsey trains alone before Fenerbahçe
Our take The Dorsey call matters more than the injuries
Basketball · Europe · EuroLeague · Regular season, round 4 · Athens
OlympiacosvsAnadolu Efes Olympiacos Piraeus vs Anadolu Efes Istanbul · basketball prediction
Score
89:66
Date · UK
9 OCT
Local time
21:15 · 9 OCT
City
Athens
Status
Full time
OLY89:66EFSFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Olympiacos vs Anadolu Efes?
Olympiacos Piraeus, the EuroLeague champions, finally play at home after three road games (2-1), and Anadolu Efes Istanbul arrive without Mike James, out for the season after Achilles surgery. Last regular season Olympiacos went 16-3 at home and Efes 5-14 on the road. We expect Olympiacos to win by around 12, 89:77. We expect the home win, analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 83:78
- 89:77
- Our estimate
- 80–84%
- Market
- Olympiacos win
- Price now
- 1.18
Olympiacos vs Anadolu Efes at a glance
| Match | Olympiacos Piraeus vs Anadolu Efes Istanbul |
|---|---|
| Competition | EuroLeague · Regular season, round 4 |
| Kick-off | 9 OCT · 19:15 UK |
| Venue | SUNEL Arena, Athens |
| Our pick | Olympiacos win · 1.18 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 80–84% |
| Predicted score | 89:77 |
| Main reason | We think the champions, at home at last, make up for the defeat in Bologna against an Efes side without Mike James. |
No. 04 · Form
Olympiacos vs Anadolu Efes: recent form
Olympiacos 2-1 in their last 3. Anadolu Efes 1-2.
- Olympiacos
- Greek league away at Iraklis on Sun 4 Oct · 4 days' rest · first home game of the season, in the new SUNEL Arena
- Anadolu Efes
- Turkish league game on Sun 4 Oct · 4 days' rest · first game without Mike James
Olympiacos2-1
- Lossvs Virtus Bologna94:96
- Winvs Zalgiris93:91
- Winvs Baskonia106:89
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 97.7
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 92.0
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 189.7
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +5.7
Anadolu Efes1-2
- Lossvs Crvena Zvezda72:77
- Winvs Real Madrid94:84
- Lossvs Barcelona82:89
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 82.7
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 83.3
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 166.0
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −0.7
Key factOlympiacos played all three EuroLeague games on the road and are +17, with the best attack of the two at about 126 points per 100 possessions. Efes are 1-2, shoot 28.6% from three and now lose their main shot creator.
| EuroLeague so far | OLY | EFS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Points scored per game in these games. | 293 | 248 |
| Points allowed per game in these games. | 276 | 250 |
| Ratings & pace | OLY | EFS |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions. Higher is better. | 125.9 | 106.1 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions. Lower is better. | 118.6 | 106.9 |
| Pace | 77.6 | 77.9 |
| Four factors | OLY | EFS |
|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 59.7 | 48.7 |
| Turnover % | 17.2 | 17.1 |
| Share of their own misses a team rebounds. | 37.4 | 26.1 |
| Free throws made per shot attempt: how often a team gets to the line. | 35.2 | 33.0 |
EuroLeague 2026-27, 3 games each · Our estimates from official EuroLeague box scores
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
Olympiacos vs Anadolu Efes injury report
Efes lose Mike James for the season; Olympiacos are only without Plotas.
Olympiacos
- OutNikolaos PlotasLeft elbow, about six weeks
- QuestionableDonta HallPersonal reasons, on leave in the USA; reports on his return conflict
- ProbableNikola MilutinovBack from tendinitis, played in the Greek league on Sunday
- ProbableJean MonteroRecovering from an illness
Anadolu Efes
- OutMike JamesAchilles surgery, out for the season
- OutIsaia CordinierRehab after surgery in May
- OutGeorgios PapagiannisLeft knee ACL
- QuestionableCameron PayneNew signing, game-time decision
TacticsJames had Achilles surgery after round 3 and Eurohoops puts his recovery at seven to nine months; Isaia Cordinier and Georgios Papagiannis are still out. New signing Cameron Payne is registered and a game-time decision. Olympiacos lose Nikolaos Plotas for about six weeks with an elbow injury, while Nikola Milutinov is back after tendinitis. Donta Hall is a doubt: he has been on leave in the USA and reports on his return conflict (checked 05:15 UTC, 9 Oct).
In the news
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No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Olympiacos vs Anadolu Efes?
Both previews we found have Olympiacos winning by about 13.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsgambler | Olympiacos 90:77; their bet builder has Olympiacos −10.5 and under 172.5 | Same side |
| Greek preview site (model) | Olympiacos about 13 points better; their bet is Olympiacos −10.5 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and on a double-digit margin as the most likely outcome. We do not follow the −10.5: it loses if Efes slow the game down, as they did in Piraeus last October.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Olympiacos vs Anadolu Efes predicted score
Olympiacos win the glass, Efes miss James.
89:77 is our main score: Olympiacos win the offensive boards (37% against 26%) and keep the pace up, while Efes, without James, struggle from three. 83:78 is the alternative if Pablo Laso slows the game down and Efes defend the way they did in Piraeus last season. Olympiacos win in both, but by 12 in one and by 5 in the other, so a −9.5 handicap wins only in the main score.
- Predicted score
- 89:77
- Alternative
- 83:78
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Olympiacos vs Anadolu Efes pick: Olympiacos win
Olympiacos win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think the champions, at home at last, make up for the defeat in Bologna against an Efes side without Mike James. Efes score only 106 points per 100 possessions as it is, and without their main shot creator they will find it hard to keep up with Olympiacos. But last season's defeat in Piraeus is a reminder: Laso can turn this into a grind, and then a 10-point margin does not come.
Our probability80–84%
Our pickOlympiacos win
Odds1.18
Main scenario89:77
- Our scenario
- 89:77alternative 83:78
What would change our mind Milutinov and Hall both ruled out, with Payne ready for big minutes in place of James: then we would expect a margin nearer six.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos win | 1.18 | 84.7% |
| Anadolu Efes win | 4.75 | 21.1% |
| Olympiacos −9.5 | 1.73 | 57.8% |
| Anadolu Efes +9.5 | 2.00 | 50% |
| Anadolu Efes +10.5 | 1.89 | 52.9% |
| Olympiacos −2.5 | 1.22 | 82% |
Odds snapshot 9 OCT 10:37 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- The away team won both meetings last season, and in Piraeus Efes won 82:78.
- Olympiacos concede a lot (about 119 points per 100 possessions in three games) and turn the ball over on 17% of possessions.
- Plotas is out and Hall is a doubt, so the depth inside depends on Milutinov really being back.
- This is a new arena: last season's 16-3 home record came in a different building.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Olympiacos win at 1.18. Analysis only: the win is priced below the range we bet singles in, and the −9.5 handicap loses in our alternative score.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Olympiacos win, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 89:77Olympiacos win at 1.18
- Happened
- 89:66Olympiacos win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.