Partizan sign an ex-NBA shooter the day before the Belgrade derby
Our take Reeves is a signing for November, not tonight
Basketball · Europe · EuroLeague · Regular season, round 5 · Belgrade
PartizanvsPanathinaikos Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade vs Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens · basketball prediction
Score
55:72
Date · UK
13 OCT
Local time
20:30 · 13 OCT
City
Belgrade
Status
Full time
PAR55:72PANFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Partizan vs Panathinaikos?
Our Partizan vs Panathinaikos prediction: Panathinaikos win 85:80 in Belgrade, and Partizan stay inside the +6.5 handicap. Željko Obradović's side are 4-0 with an average margin of nearly 21 points, but all four games were in Athens, and Kendrick Nunn and Kostas Sloukas did not travel. Joan Peñarroya's Partizan are 3-1 and have only Derek Willis and Vanja Marinković injured. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 76:90
- 80:85
- Our estimate
- 54–59%
- Market
- Partizan +6.5
- Price now
- 1.85
Partizan vs Panathinaikos at a glance
| Match | Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade vs Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens |
|---|---|
| Competition | EuroLeague · Regular season, round 5 |
| Kick-off | 13 OCT · 19:30 UK |
| Venue | Belgrade Arena, Belgrade |
| Our pick | Partizan +6.5 · 1.85 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 54–59% |
| Predicted score | 80:85 |
| Main reason | We think Panathinaikos win, because they are the best team of the season's start: four wins, each by 18 or more, without Nunn and Sloukas. |
No. 04 · Form
Partizan vs Panathinaikos: recent form
Partizan 4-1 in their last 5. Panathinaikos 4-1.
- Partizan
- Lost 76:86 in Madrid on Thu 8 Oct · plays at Fenerbahçe on Thursday
- Panathinaikos
- Beat Fenerbahçe 92:74 in Athens on Thu 8 Oct · first EuroLeague road game of the season · hosts Hapoel Tel Aviv on Friday
Partizan4-1
- Lossvs Real Madrid76:86
- Winvs Bayern86:84
- Winvs Paris92:79
- Winvs Olimpia Milano92:76
- Winvs Baskonia91:79
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 87.4
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 80.8
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 168.2
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +6.6
Panathinaikos4-1
- Winvs Fenerbahçe92:74
- Winvs Maccabi Tel Aviv90:67
- Winvs ASVEL102:79
- Winvs Paris91:72
- Lossvs Valencia64:81
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 87.8
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 74.6
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 162.4
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +13.2
Key factPanathinaikos won all four games by 18 to 23 points and allow about 97 points per 100 possessions, the best defence of the two, but every one of those games was at home. Partizan won both of their road games before Madrid, 92:79 in Paris and 86:84 in Munich, and beat Milano 92:76 in Belgrade.
| EuroLeague so far | PAR | PAN |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Points scored per game in these games. | 346 | 375 |
| Points allowed per game in these games. | 325 | 292 |
| Ratings & pace | PAR | PAN |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions. Higher is better. | 116.7 | 124.4 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions. Lower is better. | 108.9 | 97.2 |
| Pace | 74.4 | 75.2 |
| Four factors | PAR | PAN |
|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 56.3 | 59.0 |
| Turnover % | 12.1 | 14.8 |
| Share of their own misses a team rebounds. | 25.7 | 39.2 |
| Free throws made per shot attempt: how often a team gets to the line. | 32.5 | 35.4 |
EuroLeague 2026-27, 4 games each · Our estimates from official EuroLeague box scores
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
Partizan vs Panathinaikos injury report
Nunn and Sloukas stay in Athens; Partizan miss only Willis and Marinković.
Partizan
- OutVanja MarinkovićAchilles, has not played this season
- OutDerek WillisAnkle, expected back in late October
- ProbableLamar StevensHand, missed rounds 3 and 4; coach says everyone else is ready
Panathinaikos
- OutKendrick NunnFinal stage of rehab, did not travel to Belgrade
- OutKostas SloukasFinal stage of rehab, did not travel to Belgrade
- ProbableJuancho HernangómezAdductor, missed rounds 2 to 4; in the travelling squad
TacticsPanathinaikos took 13 players to Belgrade and Obradović will pick 12 of them. Nunn and Sloukas, in the final stage of their rehab, stayed in Athens, along with Giannis Kouzeloglou. Juancho Hernangómez, out for rounds 2 to 4, travelled with Mathias Lessort and Moustapha Fall. Peñarroya said on 12 Oct that Willis (ankle, out until late October) and captain Marinković (Achilles, no games this season) are his only injured players, so Lamar Stevens, who missed rounds 3 and 4 with a hand injury, should be available. Obradović, a former Partizan coach, returns to Belgrade (checked 05:40 UTC, 13 Oct).
In the news
Partizan's derby problem: Jekiri out, 65 points a game in a three-game slide
Our take Partizan's gap is 25 points, not one centre
Panathinaikos lose unbeaten run 81-91 as Itoudis outfoxes Obradovic in Athens
Our take The minus 10 hurts more than the defeat
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Partizan vs Panathinaikos?
The one preview with a score has Panathinaikos winning by two.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsgambler | Panathinaikos 86:84; their main pick is Partizan +6.5 | Other side |
Our positionSame direction as ours: Panathinaikos win and Partizan stay inside the handicap. We expect a slightly wider margin, 85:80, which still fits inside +6.5.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Partizan vs Panathinaikos predicted score
Panathinaikos win the glass, Partizan keep it close at home.
80:85 is our main score: Lessort and Guerschon Yabusele win the boards (Panathinaikos take 39% of their own misses) and Sylvain Francisco sets the pace, while Partizan stay close through Carlik Jones and Kyle Allman in front of their own crowd. 76:90 is the alternative if Panathinaikos play the way they did in Athens: a 14-point win, like all four so far. A Partizan win, with Nunn and Sloukas not there to close the game, is the third outcome. Partizan +6.5 wins in the main score and with a Partizan win, and loses in the alternative.
- Predicted score
- 80:85
- Alternative
- 76:90
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Partizan vs Panathinaikos pick: Partizan +6.5
Partizan +6.5: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Panathinaikos win, because they are the best team of the season's start: four wins, each by 18 or more, without Nunn and Sloukas. But this is their first road game, Partizan are 3-1 and won twice away from home, and Carlik Jones can carry the scoring on his own. The Belgrade crowd and Obradović's return make it a big night for the hosts. We expect a close game into the last minutes, not another blowout.
Our probability54–59%
Our pickPartizan +6.5
Odds1.85
Main scenario80:85
- Wins with
- 80:8586:8588:8986:8174:7784:75…
- Loses with
- 74:8370:8576:95…
- Our scenario
- 80:85alternative 76:90
What would change our mind A late absence for Carlik Jones, Partizan's main playmaker (6.3 assists a game): then we would expect Panathinaikos by seven or more and drop Partizan +6.5.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Partizan win | 3.11 | 32.2% |
| Panathinaikos win | 1.37 | 73% |
| Partizan +5.5 | 2.00 | 50% |
| Partizan +6.5 | 1.85 | 54.1% |
| Partizan +7.5 | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| Panathinaikos −5.5 | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| Panathinaikos −6.5 | 1.86 | 53.8% |
Odds snapshot 13 OCT 06:35 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Panathinaikos beat every opponent by 18 or more, including Fenerbahçe 92:74 on 8 Oct.
- The odds make Panathinaikos about six points better, and early in the season they read the new squad better than last season's numbers do.
- Panathinaikos take 39% of their own misses, against 26% for Partizan, so second chances can open the gap.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Partizan +6.5 · analysis only. We expect 80:85, but Panathinaikos have won every game by 18 or more, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Partizan +6.5, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 80:85Partizan +6.5 at 1.85
- Happened
- 55:72Panathinaikos win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.