Sevilla demand LaLiga's raw footage after Güler's elbow got no close-up replay
Our take "Nothing hidden" needs the raw footage
Football · Spain · LaLiga · Matchday 8 · Valencia
LevantevsSevilla Levante UD vs Sevilla FC · prediction
Score
3:3
Date
12 OCT
City
Valencia
Status
Full time
LEV3:3SEVFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Levante vs Sevilla?
Our Levante vs Sevilla prediction is both teams to score, most likely 1:1 at the Ciutat de València. Luís Castro's Levante are 18th with five points but scored seven goals in their last two home league games; Luis García Plaza's Sevilla are fifth on 13 points, 4.7 more than their expected points. The odds split the two sides almost exactly, so this is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 1:1
- Our estimate
- 57–62%
- Market
- Both teams to score
- Price now
- 1.75
Levante vs Sevilla at a glance
| Match | Levante UD vs Sevilla FC |
|---|---|
| Competition | LaLiga · Matchday 8 |
| Kick-off | 12 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Valencia |
| Venue | Estadi Ciutat de València, Valencia |
| Our pick | Both teams to score · 1.75 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 57–62% |
| Predicted score | 1:1 |
| Main reason | We see no favourite: the odds split the chances evenly and we agree with them. |
No. 04 · Form
Levante vs Sevilla: recent form
Levante 5 from 15. Sevilla 7 from 15.
Levante5 pts
- Lossvs Villarreal1:3
- Lossvs Barcelona2:4
- Drawvs Málaga0:0
- Winvs Real Betis5:2
- Drawvs Osasuna0:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Sevilla7 pts
- Lossvs Barcelona1:3
- Winvs Deportivo La Coruña1:0
- Winvs Valencia1:0
- Drawvs Espanyol1:1
- Lossvs Atlético Madrid1:3
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factLevante's only league win is 5:2 against Real Betis; they drew 0:0 at Málaga and at Osasuna and lost 1:3 at Villarreal and 2:4 at home to Barcelona. Sevilla beat Deportivo and Valencia 1:0, drew 1:1 at Espanyol and lost 1:3 to Barcelona and to Atlético Madrid. Both teams scored in 6 of each side's last 10 games. Levante won both meetings last season, 3:0 away and 2:0 at home.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Levante vs Sevilla team news
Sotelo out for Levante; Stassin a doubt for Sevilla.
Levante
- OutHugo SoteloKnee sprain
- DoubtEtta EyongMuscle injury, late fitness test
Sevilla
- DoubtLucas StassinInjured against Deportivo
- DoubtRubén VargasBack in training, start not confirmed
- DoubtKike SalasBack in training, start not confirmed
TacticsLevante are without Hugo Sotelo (knee sprain), and Etta Eyong is in the last stage of his recovery from a muscle injury and would only just make the squad, according to Comuniate; Nacho Pérez and Ndukwe, back from under-19 and under-21 duty, could start on the bench. Sevilla's Lucas Stassin is a doubt after getting hurt against Deportivo, while Rubén Vargas and Kike Salas are back in training without confirmation they can start (SoccerNews). Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 2
Who do others back in Levante vs Sevilla?
The two previews we read disagree: one model sees 1:1, SoccerNews backs Sevilla.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| Kickoff.co.uk | 1:1 most likely; 37% each side |
| SoccerNews | Sevilla to win |
Our positionWe see no favourite either: the odds split the chances evenly and we agree. Sevilla have taken more points than their play deserves and Levante attack at home, so we expect goals at both ends.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Levante vs Sevilla predicted score
Levante push at home; Sevilla answer on the break.
Levante take 14.3 shots a game over their last ten and should press from the start at home. Sevilla are comfortable on the counter and can score first or equalise. 1:1 is our main score; 2:1 to Levante is the alternative if the game opens up as it did against Betis. Both teams to score wins with 1:1, 2:1, 1:2 or 2:2 and loses with 0:0, 1:0 or 0:1.
- Predicted score
- 1:1
- Alternative
- 2:1
Your score
LEV
SEV
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Levante vs Sevilla pick: Both teams to score
Both teams to score: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We see no favourite: the odds split the chances evenly and we agree with them. Levante play an open game at home, with seven goals in their last two home league matches, while Sevilla have 4.7 points more than their expected points, a cushion that usually shrinks. Our score is 1:1, and both teams to score is the call that matches it.
Our probability57–62%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.75
Main scenario1:1
- Wins with
- 1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
- Loses with
- 1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
- Our scenario
- 1:1alternative 2:1
What would change our mind A Sevilla XI without Stassin and without Vargas: then Sevilla create little, and 1:0 or 0:0 become our main scores.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Levante win | 2.70 | 37% |
| Draw | 3.20 | 31.3% |
| Sevilla win | 2.70 | 37% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.00 | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 57.8% |
Odds snapshot 12 OCT 07:33 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why one side could keep a clean sheet.
- Levante kept three clean sheets in their last ten, including 0:0 draws at Málaga and Osasuna.
- Both of Sevilla's wins in their last five were 1:0.
- Stassin is a doubt, and the odds point to only about two goals in the game.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: both teams to score · analysis only. We expect 1:1, but the odds see no favourite and Levante have kept three clean sheets in ten games, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:1Both teams to score at 1.75
- Happened
- 3:3Draw
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
Read next
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.