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Football · Spain · LaLiga · Matchday 8 · Málaga
MálagavsEspanyol Málaga CF vs RCD Espanyol · prediction
Score
1:1
Date
9 OCT
City
Málaga
Status
Full time
MAL1:1ESPFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Málaga vs Espanyol?
Málaga vs Espanyol is bottom against fifteenth in Friday’s only LaLiga game. Málaga have three points and no win from seven games; Espanyol have not lost to them in 14 meetings but play without Puado and Kike García. Our prediction is 1:1, and we have no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 1:0
- 1:1
- Our estimate
- 30–34%
- Market
- Draw
- Price now
- 3.16
Málaga vs Espanyol at a glance
| Match | Málaga CF vs RCD Espanyol |
|---|---|
| Competition | LaLiga · Matchday 8 |
| Kick-off | 9 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Málaga |
| Venue | La Rosaleda, Málaga |
| Our pick | Draw · 3.16 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 30–34% |
| Predicted score | 1:1 |
No. 04 · Form
Málaga vs Espanyol: recent form
Málaga 2 from 15. Espanyol 4 from 15.
Málaga2 pts
- Lossvs Getafe0:1
- Lossvs Villarreal1:3
- Drawvs Celta1:1
- Drawvs Levante0:0
- Lossvs Real Madrid0:4
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Espanyol4 pts
- Lossvs Elche1:3
- Lossvs Rayo Vallecano1:2
- Winvs Osasuna2:0
- Drawvs Sevilla1:1
- Lossvs Real Sociedad1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Key factMálaga have scored two goals in their last five league games. Espanyol’s Roberto Fernández has six goals in seven league games.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Málaga vs Espanyol team news
Málaga without four players; Espanyol without Puado and Kike García.
Málaga
- OutFernando CaleroInjured
- OutJulen LobeteInjured
- OutDiego MurilloInjured
- OutAarón OchoaInjured
- DoubtAdam AznouInjured, missed three games
Espanyol
- OutJavi PuadoInjured
- OutKike GarcíaInjured
- DoubtJofre CarrerasGroin injury
- FormRoberto Fernández6 goals in 7 games
TacticsJuan Francisco Funes is missing Calero, Lobete, Murillo and Ochoa, and Aznou is a big doubt; Chupe should return to the starting line-up. Manolo González loses his two experienced forwards, gets El Hilali back from suspension and waits on a fitness test for Jofre Carreras.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Málaga vs Espanyol?
The one preview we read sees a draw.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Draw 1:1 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree: two teams that score little, and prices that cannot separate them.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Málaga vs Espanyol predicted score
Tight, nervous, few chances.
Málaga need a first win and will push at La Rosaleda, but they create little. Espanyol will rely on Roberto Fernández. 1:1 is our main score; 1:0 to Málaga is the alternative if the home crowd carries them.
- Predicted score
- 1:1
- Alternative
- 1:0
Your score
MAL
ESP
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Málaga vs Espanyol pick: Draw
Draw: why this pick wins
Our probability30–34%
Our pickDraw
Odds3.16
Main scenario1:1
- Our scenario
- 1:1alternative 1:0
What would change our mind Roberto Fernández missing from the Espanyol XI would make a Málaga result more likely.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga win | 2.85 | 35.1% |
| Draw | 3.16 | 31.6% |
| Espanyol win | 2.55 | 39.2% |
Odds snapshot 9 OCT 11:37 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why one side could still win.
- Málaga have lost their last five meetings with Espanyol and have not beaten them since March 2012.
- Roberto Fernández can decide a tight game on his own.
- Málaga have lost four of their seven league games.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Analysis only, no bet: all three outcomes are realistic between two sides that score little. Our score is 1:1.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:1Draw at 3.16
- Happened
- 1:1Draw
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.