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Football · France · Ligue 1 · Matchday 6 · Lens

LensvsLyon RC Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais · prediction

Score
2:1
Date
9 OCT
City
Lens
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Lens vs Lyon?

Lens vs Lyon is second against fifteenth, but the prices make Lens slight favourites at home. Lyon are two points behind leaders Monaco; Lens have four points from five games and a new coach, Yannick Cahuzac. Our prediction is 1:1, and we have no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:2
1:1
Our estimate
28–32%
Draw · odds 3.67Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Draw
Price now
3.67

Lens vs Lyon at a glance

MatchRC Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais
CompetitionLigue 1 · Matchday 6
Kick-off9 OCT · 19:45 UK · 20:45 Lens
VenueStade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Our pickDraw · 3.67 · analysis only
Our estimate28–32%
Predicted score1:1
No. 04 · Form

Lens vs Lyon: recent form

Lens 4 from 15. Lyon 11 from 15.

Lens4 pts
  • Lossvs Monaco1:2
  • Drawvs Le Mans2:2
  • Lossvs Lorient0:1
  • Lossvs Strasbourg1:2
  • Winvs Auxerre5:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Lyon11 pts
  • Winvs Rennes4:0
  • Drawvs Paris FC0:0
  • Winvs Auxerre3:1
  • Drawvs Le Havre1:1
  • Winvs Toulouse2:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.00
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Key factLens have not won in the league since beating Auxerre 5:2 on the opening weekend, and lost 1:2 at Monaco in Cahuzac’s first game. Lyon are unbeaten in five league games, with draws against Le Havre (1:1) and Paris FC (0:0).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Lens vs Lyon team news

Lens without Nawrocki and Sima; Lyon without Niakhaté.

Lens
  • OutMaik NawrockiKnee injury
  • OutAbdallah SimaMuscle injury
  • DoubtJhoanner ChávezThigh injury
  • DoubtSamson BaidooKnee injury
Lyon
  • OutMoussa NiakhatéHamstring injury
  • DoubtNicolás Tagliafico
TacticsLens miss Nawrocki and Sima, with Chávez and Baidoo being assessed. Paulo Fonseca’s Lyon lost Niakhaté to a hamstring injury on international duty and Tagliafico is a doubt. Expect Lens to push at Bollaert and Lyon to counter through Nuamah and Openda.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Lens vs Lyon?

The one preview we read picks Lyon.

SourcePickVersus us
Sports MoleLyon 2:1Other side
Our positionThe prices lean Lens, Sports Mole leans Lyon. We think both are fair calls, which is why we see a draw.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Lens vs Lyon predicted score

Lens push, Lyon wait for the break.

Lens should have more of the ball at home and Lyon will look for space behind them. 1:1 is our main score; 1:2 to Lyon is the alternative if their counters land.

Predicted score
1:1
Alternative
1:2
Your score
RCL1
OL1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Lens vs Lyon pick: Draw

Draw: why this pick wins

Our probability28–32%
Our pickDraw
Odds3.67
Main scenario1:1
Our scenario
1:1alternative 1:2

What would change our mind Confirmed line-ups with several more Lens absentees would make a Lyon win our call.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Lens win2.4640.7%
Draw3.6727.2%
Lyon win2.7536.4%

Odds snapshot 9 OCT 11:37 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why a side could still win clearly.

  1. Lens have conceded in every league game, nine goals in five.
  2. Lyon have won only two of their last ten meetings with Lens, but one was 1:0 at Bollaert last season.
  3. Lyon have not lost in the league and sit second.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Analysis only, no bet: a Lens win, a draw and a Lyon win are all realistic. Our score is 1:1.

Market
Draw
Odds
3.67
Published
9 OCT 07:26
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:1Draw at 3.67
Happened
2:1Lens win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.