29 PIM in 8 games benched Zadorov. His agent agreed with a fan about Toronto
Our take Boston proved they can win without him
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Anaheim
AnaheimvsBoston Anaheim Ducks vs Boston Bruins · hockey prediction
Score
2:4
Date · UK
17 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 16 OCT
City
Anaheim
Status
Full time
ANA2:4BOSFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Anaheim vs Boston?
Our Ducks vs Bruins prediction: Anaheim beat Boston 4:3 at the Honda Center, possibly after overtime. The Anaheim Ducks are 4-2-0 and the Boston Bruins 5-2-0 after two weeks of the season, and last season Boston took 61.0% of the available points to Anaheim's 56.1%. The line makes Boston slight favourites, while the DRatings model has Anaheim at 54.2%. Our pick is Anaheim to win, overtime included, as analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 4:3
- Our estimate
- 51–54%
- Market
- Anaheim win · incl. OT
- Price now
- 1.95
Anaheim vs Boston at a glance
| Match | Anaheim Ducks vs Boston Bruins |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 17 OCT · 03:00 UK |
| Venue | Honda Center, Anaheim |
| Our pick | Anaheim win · incl. OT · 1.95 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 51–54% |
| Predicted score | 4:3 |
| Main reason | We expect Anaheim to win because the home side has the better special teams this season, by a wide margin (power play 33.3% against 16.7%, penalty kill 90.5% against 76.0%), and had the better shot count last season. |
No. 04 · Form
Anaheim vs Boston: recent form
Anaheim 3-2 in their last 5. Boston 3-2.
- Anaheim
- Lost 2:4 at home to Calgary on Tue 13 Oct · three days off, no travel · three games in the past seven days
- Boston
- Won 6:3 in San Jose on Tue 13 Oct · three days off, 535 km to Anaheim, same time zone · second road game in a row
Anaheim3-2
- Lossvs Calgary2:4
- Winvs Calgary4:2
- Winvs Winnipeg5:1
- Lossvs Edmonton2:5
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Florida3:2 OT
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.20
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 80%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Boston3-2
- Winvs San Jose6:3
- Winvs Philadelphia5:1
- Winvs Utah6:1
- Lossvs Ottawa1:4
- Lossvs Minnesota1:4
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.60
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Key factAnaheim are 3-2 in their last five: a 3:2 overtime win over Florida, a 2:5 home loss to Edmonton, wins in Winnipeg (5:1) and Calgary (4:2) on back-to-back nights, then 2:4 at home to Calgary on Tuesday. Boston are also 3-2: two 1:4 losses, in Minnesota and at home to Ottawa, then three straight wins, 6:1 over Utah, 5:1 over Philadelphia and 6:3 in San Jose on Tuesday.
| Attack & defence | ANA | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 4-2-0 | 5-2-0 |
| Points % | 66.7% | 71.4% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.50 | +1.43 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 23.5 | 25.6 |
| Shots against | 27.0 | 28.7 |
| Special teams | ANA | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 90.5% | 76.0% |
| Last season | ANA | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 43-33-6 | 45-27-10 |
| Points % | 56.1% | 61.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.18 | +0.27 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 30.8 | 27.0 |
| Shots against | 28.4 | 29.7 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 18.6% | 23.4% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 76.4% | 77.0% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Anaheim vs Boston: starting goalies and team news
Dostal and Swayman expected, neither confirmed; team news not confirmed.
AnaheimExpected
Lukas Dostal- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .892
- Starts
- 5
- SV% last season
- .888
- NHL career starts
- 167
BostonExpected
Jeremy Swayman- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .930
- Starts
- 6
- SV% last season
- .908
- NHL career starts
- 243
Anaheim
No absences reported.
Boston
No absences reported.
TacticsDaily Faceoff had not posted its starters for Friday by the morning of 16 October (UK time), so both goalies are expected on starts, not confirmed. Lukas Dostal is Anaheim's No. 1: 167 NHL starts, .892 in five starts this season, .888 in 55 last season and .896 over three seasons. Jeremy Swayman has opened Boston's season at .930 in six starts, after .908 in 54 last season, and stopped .921 of shots in San Jose on Tuesday. Both teams have had three days off since Tuesday, and Boston travel only 535 km down the coast, in the same time zone. We did not find a confirmed injury report for either team before publishing.
In the news
Report: Kings want Hellebuyck, but LA have one goal in each of their last four games
Our take A goalie won't fix four goals in four games
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Anaheim vs Boston?
The one model we found has Anaheim slightly ahead, against the line.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Anaheim 54.2% | Same side |
Our positionThe line has Boston slightly ahead, 1.86 against 1.95 on Anaheim. DRatings goes the other way: Anaheim 54.2%, with projected goals of 3.43 to 2.98. We side with DRatings and home ice, by a small margin; this is close to a coin flip.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Anaheim vs Boston predicted score
A one-goal game, with Anaheim's special teams in front.
4:3 to Anaheim, possibly after overtime, is our main score. Boston's +1.43 goals a game this season rests on three wins against Utah, Philadelphia and San Jose, and both teams are outshot so far (Anaheim 23.5 to 27.0 a game, Boston 25.6 to 28.7). The clearer gap is on special teams: Anaheim score on 33.3% of their power plays and kill 90.5% of penalties, Boston 16.7% and 76.0%. Last season Anaheim also had the better shot count, 30.8 for and 28.4 against, while Boston were outshot 27.0 to 29.7. 2:3 to Boston is the alternative if Swayman keeps his October form. Anaheim to win, overtime included, comes in with any Anaheim win, in regulation, overtime or a shootout.
- Predicted score
- 4:3
- Alternative
- 2:3
Your score
ANA
BOS
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Anaheim vs Boston pick: Anaheim win · incl. OT
Anaheim win · incl. OT: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We expect Anaheim to win because the home side has the better special teams this season, by a wide margin (power play 33.3% against 16.7%, penalty kill 90.5% against 76.0%), and had the better shot count last season. Six and seven games are a small sample, and most of Boston's goal difference comes from one run of three wins with 17 goals scored. DRatings agrees with us, at 54.2%. The margin is thin and Swayman is in form, so we expect 4:3, possibly after overtime.
Our probability51–54%
Our pickAnaheim win · incl. OT
Odds1.95
Main scenario4:3
- Our scenario
- 4:3alternative 2:3
What would change our mind A late goalie change: Anaheim starting Ville Husso (.884 last season) instead of Dostal would weaken our pick; Boston starting Michael DiPietro, with one start this season, instead of Swayman would strengthen it.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Anaheim win · incl. OT | 1.95 | 51.3% |
| Boston win · incl. OT | 1.86 | 53.8% |
| Anaheim win in 60 min | 2.51 | 39.8% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.17 | 24% |
| Boston win in 60 min | 2.39 | 41.8% |
| Anaheim +1.5 | 1.38 | 72.5% |
Odds snapshot 16 OCT 05:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Swayman has saved .930 in six starts this season; Dostal is at .892 and was .888 last season.
- Boston are +1.43 goals a game this season and have scored 17 in their last three games.
- Over 82 games last season Boston were the stronger team: 61.0% of points and +0.27 goals a game, against Anaheim's 56.1% and -0.18.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Anaheim win · incl. OT at 1.95 · analysis only. We expect 4:3, but the line has Boston slightly ahead, Swayman has opened at .930 and neither goalie is confirmed, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Anaheim win · incl. OT, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 4:3Anaheim win · incl. OT at 1.95
- Happened
- 2:4Boston win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.